Blu-ray will not matter...

[Cyander]

Well, of course.. movie-playback is the other big thing Sony is pushing but the whole BD/HD-DVD war is far from over. Besides, HVD seems to be ready for consumer market bu late 2006 or at least around 2007. From a movie standpoint, BD could lose as well..

Blu-ray adds a cost to the PS3 that will make an impact for Sony financial-wise. If BD was a way to secure more exlcusive content from devs, then it was wrong because the higher cost-factor will make devs want to make more and more multiplatform-titles and the majority are dvd-based.

Yes, BluRay could still lose out, but it /won't/ be to HVD. 300GB which would retail for 100$ a pop at launch? Can I get a 'hell... uhm... this was supposed to be cool! I don't want that!'? And I don't even want to get into the argument where I have to explain that we can't be expecting prices to scale linearly.

BluRay and HD-DVD both work on the DVD legacy, and use those technologies to get the space needed. They BOTH will make HVD look too expensive, and put HVD back where it should be: high-density backup for servers.

Here is the way I see things playing out personally, and this is a bit of speculation, so take it with a grain of salt...

BluRay has enough steam right now that the format could take the market, killing HD-DVD as long as two things are true: First, the price difference in media is not large enough to create products with large pricing differences (more than 2$ or so, but I don't see this happening, content is actually 90% of the cost for DVDs right now, and I don't see that changing). Second, the price difference in the hardware is not appreciable either, barring having cheaper hardware (via systems like the PS3), having a larger, more solid movie library could swing it, despite added hardware cost. HD-DVD has to make one of these two false before the scales tip back in its favor at the moment.

However, BluRay isn't guaranteed either. In fact, dead dinosaur discs could fall prey to IPTV and downloadable content using Media Center PCs. Unfortunately, there are a few things which make me thing that dead dinosaur discs are here to stay for awhile. First, lack of bandwidth. Companies don't seem to want to give NA consumers fat pipes, and don't even like us USING the pipes we do get. So to expect that Comcast will offer pipes large enough to allow 'painless' HD content downloads quickly enough to hurt BR is slim. Second, customers do seem to like Microsoft, but to use them as the gateway for everything, and not be allowed to use Linux if we want to grab a movie seems a bit of a stretch, and blurs the lines of media and OS a little too much. Wether or not the customer will care, is yet to be seen.

As for HVD... it will make waves in the storage market, but won't impact mass-media. If something like HVD /could/ do that, we would be using something other than DVD, as there is plenty out there that beats it, but not in the COST.

On top of all of this though, BluRay doesn't matter for games, that I agree with.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Anyways, it's just like Rein says, BR is someone's achilles heel.

If BR gets adopted as the HD movie format, then MS looks pretty bad for not having it in their system.

If it doesn't, then sony is stuck with a product they can't cost reduce over time.

Either way, someone is gonna get the short end of the stick.

 

[Cyander]

No I meant a real announced game.

<edit> I am not saying there wont be any and in fact I expect there will be, I would just like to see some actual information not some guy that heard from his brothers best friends cousin.

Well, enCHANT arM was supposed to be one of those titles that hit 2 (although they said that depending on what they do, they could stuff 4, but that was a joke of sorts).

I don't have a link, so feel free to scoff, laugh, and disbelieve me (no sarcasm intended).

 

[seismologist]

Actually, what happened this gen is there was a base platform (PS2) which was the lower spec version, however all the games were diesigned for it. Meaning the vast majority of XBOX ports did next to nothing to anything to take advantage of the system. And CERTAINLY did not create any new content.

well yeah there was no new content because the Xbox and PS2 use the same storage medium. Though if you look at the Gamecube version of those multiplatforgames I think you'll find it to be a different story.

In most cases it was the same basic game but you'll find compressed video and chopped out levels and just about every one of them.

 

[dubyateeeff]

Todays games already fills up a DVD, so nextgen with "10 times" the gpuram can use 10 times the texture sizes... With more layers! And Then we need space for those high-def prerenders! And more level data, more polygons, more everything... As for expensive? Yeah, it adds to the cost but lack of HDD subtracts... besides, HDD+DVD is likely more expensive than BRD to produce.

To me BRD seems more nextgen than DVD+20GB HDD, because DVD+20GB HDD was last gen. However I dont think that it is that big of a detriment for MS to just have 9GB DVDs. Not like we havent swapped CDs/DVDs before and loved it (FFx, LoTR).

And to be able to get HD-movies on top of all the gaming goodness? That is just a bonus!

 

[scooby_dooby]

Todays games already fills up a DVD

except they don't. I believe there's somewhere around 10xbox games taht are larger than 6GB. Out of something liek 1200 games (maybe more?) it's less than .1% of current games that are 'filling' a DVD, and most aren't even half full, actually MOST are more like 1/3.

well yeah there was no new content because the Xbox and PS2 use the same storage medium. Though if you look at the Gamecube version of those multiplatforgames I think you'll find it to be a different story.

In most cases it was the same basic game but you'll find compressed video and chopped out levels and just about every one of them.

Oh is that why? I always thought it was because Publishers were to cheap to redo a game, when they could just port it over.

The Gamecube comparison is really not valid since GC was never the base platform as X360 will probably be. The only way your theory holds any water is if PS3 is used as the base platform for the majority of x-platform games, however there's really no reason to believe this will be the case.

 

[dubyateeeff]

Anyways, it's just like Rein says, BR is someone's achilles heel.

If BR gets adopted as the HD movie format, then MS looks pretty bad for not having it in their system.

If it doesn't, then sony is stuck with a product they can't cost reduce over time.

Either way, someone is gonna get the short end of the stick.

Basicly the disks and the laser is different. How does that make the system more expensive? The disk cost is a per game cost and the laser is a system cost.

I would argue that since DVDs are so cheap already MS cant reduce the cost of their DVD drive substantially. If we assume that a BRD is expensive, it can only get cheaper*. But I dont think it is that expensive. The cost of BRD lies in rearranging the factories which for Sony is a one time cost.

*however your point (as I understood it) that BRD may not ever be produced on profit still remains. But since we dont know the costs of the specific parts PS3 total system cost may still end up below X2 and will definetly be produced and sold on profit during the later revisions.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I agree that Blu-Ray does not matter from a games perspective - BR does not give you more CPU power, more GPU power, more memory, better bandwidth spec, better control.

Bly only matters from a storage perspective and from a HDTV movie playback perspective.


i.e. we could see 3rd-gen Xbox released in 2010 with DVD drive that has core specifications that blow PS3 out of the water, and a new controller interface (like Rev) and NOT having BR (or HDDVD or any other nextgen disc) would not make a bit of difference.

 

[seismologist]

I agree that Blu-Ray does not matter from a games perspective - BR does not give you more CPU power, more GPU power, more memory, better bandwidth spec, better control.

I know it's hard right now to imagine a game needing more than 1 DVD storage but just last gen almost every game fit on just 1 CD. Now we've got games like Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance taking up 4 1/2 gigs. so what happened?

 

[mckmas8808]

It makes sense that 360 will be this base platform for the coming generation. easier development tools, cheaper development lifecycle, and largest installed base.

Lowest common denominator for the 2 systems it a game that uses 512mb of ram, a 3.2Ghz PowerPC cpu, and 7.4GB of storage space. I expect that to be the target for the majoritt of cross-platform games. With optimization made first to the specific GPU's, and CPU's, but not really much concern for bluray.

Who says that it will have a larger installed base for the whole next-gen cycle? And does 1st party and exclusives count as possible Blu-ray disc canidates?

 

[AlNom]

I know it's hard right now to imagine a game needing more than 1 DVD storage but just last gen almost every game fit on just 1 CD. Now we've got games like Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance taking up 4 1/2 gigs. so what happened?

Is it really 4.2GB or is that including copies of data for faster access

 

[mckmas8808]

Is it really 4.2GB or is that including copies of data for faster access

Does it really matter. The faster access did improve the game didn't it? So to me if it was for faster access shouldn't that count also?

 

[AlNom]

well, there is the matter of the faster dvd drive in the next gen *shrug*

 

[ERP]

I know it's hard right now to imagine a game needing more than 1 DVD storage but just last gen almost every game fit on just 1 CD. Now we've got games like Mortal Kombat Deadly Alliance taking up 4 1/2 gigs. so what happened?

You use what you have.

When you have a lot of space you don't spend a lot of time trying to limit its use, when you don't have much, you spend the time to make things as compact as possible.

 

[McHuj]

In my opinion, BR in the PS3 isn't a killer app yet.

Everyone is making the PS2 DVD play back comparisons. The situation is much different. DVDs were out before the PS2. The market had already been established and was growing.

Maybe in Japan, the PS2 was a cheap player, but not in the US. I bought my DVD player before the PS2 was out, for under $299. No costs savings.

DVDs offered the average consumer a vastly improved experience over VHS tapes. Better picture, DVD extras, not having to rewind, etc. What are the clear advantages for BR or HDDVDs over DVD? Other then HD picture, not much. The HD picture is great, I want it, videophiles want it, techies want it, does the average joe shmoe want it? When he doesn't even have an HD TV. I don't think there are enough compelling reasons to upgrade to BR for the average consumer at this time.

Before BR/HDDVD becomes big, I think there needs to be a market for it and I just don't see that until HDTVs make up around 75% of the TVs in homes and at that point there might be another format already on the way, or more likely, a media-less broadband delivery format. Good luck trying to convince people to upgrade again after they bought DVD players 3-4 years ago.

Give me an ability to download movies that I want to watch straight to a DVR and in HD, and I won't care about BR. In my personal opinion, BR will go the way of the DVD Audio or SACD. CDs are being replaced by Itunes/MP3 and other elecronic delivery formats, not by new higher capacity/fidelity media.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

I wonder if X360 will even get out of 2006 with the "largest installed base." Inevitably it will fall by 2007 at the latest. People who think X360 has a realistic chance are delusional. Sony hasn't yet made a blunder of epic proportions... so they won't be losing next gen, and it likely won't be close (until such a grave error is made it will take a constant erosion of marketshare, so this gen will be a very good indicator of the future).

The PS2 installed base is 100 million. GC and Xbox COMBINED are at 40 million. There are roughly 60 million (at least) gamers who exclusively enjoy the playstation brand, and are quite happy with it. The vast majority of these people will be getting a PS3. For MS to have any hope, they'll have to TRIPLE their installed base, and hope that anybody that owns a PS2 and something else... DOESN'T buy a PS3 this go around. Highly unlikely.

MS will do better, but I highly doubt it will be at Sony's expense. Sony has hit 100 million twice in a row, and actually did it faster this time around. The PS2 has a monster year coming up in 2006 and it will continue to sell. So, actually, in the face of new competition (MS) they've actually DONE BETTER. MS didn't hurt them at all. Nintendo will continue to bleed home console marketshare, though they may pick up some outsiders based on their designs. I think people who did not game before will be getting in this go around too, on all the various consoles. But seriously, MS has no shot of taking down Sony this go around unless all the PS3s simply don't work.

As to blu-ray, it will matter, but as others have pointed out, it has little to do with games (at least so far as I see it, but you never know).

It is a sad state of affairs when CABLE has vastly superior resolution than the movies you just bought. People with HDTVs /want/ HD movies, and this is a growing number of people. Many of whom are gamers. If you don't think having B-R in the PS3 will be a big selling point to quite a number of people, you're delusional. It likely won't have /as much/ of an effect as DVD in PS2, but it will still have a significant one.



Note: I realize it is entirely possible for X360 to end up on top. Ditto revolution. As in, "it can." Kind of like how Harvard's football team COULD beat USC if they played, but we know that it is HIGHLY HIGHLY improbable that it would happen.

 

[seismologist]

You use what you have.

When you have a lot of space you don't spend a lot of time trying to limit its use, when you don't have much, you spend the time to make things as compact as possible.

yeah that's what I figured, I'm just wondering what kind of tradeoffs are made in that compaction process?

 

[AlNom]

yeah that's what I figured, I'm just wondering what kind of tradeoffs are made in that compaction process?

Likely some more CPU power for decompression from a heavy compression scheme.

 

[wco81]

Lets think up some dire scenarios for PS3 and Blu-Ray:

1. No PS3 games, not even the next GT, use anything more than DVD-9. There are zero games on Blu-Ray by the time PS4 is launched 5-6 years later.

2. HD-DVD wins the format war with cheaper discs and players.

3. X360 wins the market share war and by the end of the decade, has reversed the share positions of this generation.

OK and PS3 launches for $600 while the X360 drops to no more than $300 for Premium (I'm channeling Deadmeat here).

So PS3 only sells 20 million in 5 years and you've paid $200 more than X360 at its launch and maybe $300-400 more for the PS3 than X360 in 2006.

Well guess what, you still got a $400 high-definition movie disc player with a competitive game console thrown in. And the Blu-Ray format, despite losing the format war, will have good support for years from just those 20 million PS3s. You know Sony will always release content from its studios for years on Blu-Ray, regardless of how the format war plays out.

By 2010-2015, support from the studios will start to wane but Xbox still enjoyed good games support for years despite being a distant second. Well it's a lot cheaper to press movies than develop games and 20 million (not counting standalone Blu-Ray boxes) is still 20 miillion so it will get movie releases for years.

And knowing Sony, they will probably put Blu-Ray or Blu-Ray 2 on the PS4.

Now a more likely scenario is that at worst, you will be paying $100 for a Blu-Ray player in addition to getting a next-gen console and Sony will sell at least 50 million PS3s by the end of the decade so movie support will be there indefinitely.

Where is the downside of getting more features (HD movie playback, higher game media capacity) for the money? Is there any evidence that if Sony used a DVD drive, they would have priced the PS3 a lot less? Companies don't always pass their cost savings to consumers you know.

 

[Nicked]

Blu-ray will be huge. We already know developers want it (Namco, Epic, R*), we know its going to have a huge push on the PS3, and we know its likely to be the overwhelming victor in the HD movie battle..

People seem to forget that Sony isn't the only company that is going to be advertising the fuck out of Blu-ray. And you can bet content companies will be like "New Blu-ray High Definition Star Wars! Playable in your PS3!".

So much negativity, yet I doubt that most of the entertainment industry leaders of the world have backed the wrong horse.