Blu-ray will not matter...

[DemoCoder]

You raise good points about the validity or potential of an HD disc format. But this thread is about it's impact, or lack of one, on the PS3. It seems in this regards the numbers are on Powderkeg's side.

.Sis

No, because we aren't talking about whether or not PS3 has HD out *for games* We're talking about whether or not hi-def optical movies will have any demand due to the number of consumers who own HD sets.

Fact is, HD set numbers seem to be doubling every year, so any argument based on the number of displays is suspect. Sony made an excellent bet, since midway through the console's life, there will be 50 million sets. Moreover, DVD lasted 10+ years, and the next-gen format is suspected to last another 10. So Sony is doing the right thing trying to lock in their baby early, since the winner of the format war will be determined now, not in 5 years.

Moreover, anyone buying a console in the first year, is likely to be a household with above average income, precisely those who are expected to buy HDTVs early. Do lower middle class/blue collar households really buy $400 game consoles and hundreds of dollars of games? I would bet that about 1/2 the households with SDTVs who can't afford HDTVs aren't buying XB360's either, but are buying cheapass PS2s and XBOX1s.

 

[wco81]

There's a gold-rush mentality around large-screen HDTV displays. Companies have spent billions, probably tens of billions in the last couple of years adding manufacturing infrastructure to build larger and larger flat panels.

On top of it, a lot of research into new display technologies.

All this investment is made possible by robust sales of $4000 and higher displays. But there are also a number of models you can get for closer to $500 than $1000.

If you think about it, analog TV is a half-century old techology.

I don't know the adoption curve for CD but this could be comparable. Of course TVs cost more than most CD players but we're talking about a comparable analog to digital shift.

BTW, this week, I believe they fixed the date on the shutdown of analog TV spectrum to some time in 2009. The people who can't afford digital TVs by then will get $50 subsidized set tops to convert digital signals to analog for their legacy sets. But my guess is most people will be able to get digital sets.

 

[Axsider]

Blu-ray will not matter...

Do you work for Microsoft? ^^
Maybe THEY would say something like that (or some MS ******s).
Do you really "believe" that you pay the full price for the BluRay-drive? And for the RSX, CELL, XXX, and so on?
....oh my gosh...

i dont think games will really use BR

I have to disappoint you... ;-)

 

[eDoshin]

Better that Sony gambled with BR than nothing at all. Regardless of the impact, its a push forward. Otherwise, what are we waiting for? HD movies will not be available as a standard format until there is a way to deliver it on a mass scale .. and vice versa. PS3 is a vehicle that delivers that instant market penetration without the risk to the consumers. If it does not become the de facto standard, which I cannot see why it wouldn't, then it still has its functions within the PS3. But in any case, we are moving fast into the HD era, and I would hate to be the CEO who has to answer why their company is only starting to figure it out.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Sony made an excellent bet, since midway through the console's life, there will be 50 million sets.

unless HD-DVD becomes the HD disc format. Then their excellent bet turns into a horrible money-pit.

 

[Brimstone]

I don't know why anyone even mentions HVD, blu-ray has scaled up to 200GB in the labs which is probably comparable to what I've heard may be first gen HVDs, unless they offer 1TB right out the get go, HVDs are not going to offer much of an advantage and even still even1080p doesn't require that much room. 200GB peak is enough for the next few years.

I only hope the ps3 drive is at least 4x, then it'd truly shine even more.

I don't like either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray because of loading speeds. Historical trends show that we will see 8 times memory pool on next-gen consoles comming out in 2010. That means Xbox720/PS4 will have 4 Gigabytes of RAM. It will take forever to fill that up even on a extremely fast Blu-Ray drive.

Also because HVD can data stream a gigabyte per second, it's far more effective in a video game console enviroment.


I say, replace DVD with something that has lots of capacity and is also fast. The cost of the HVD player is roughly the same as HD-DVD/Blu-Ray, it's just the discs cost more. Now they are working on a Read Only format that will have a 100 Gigabyte capacity and is targeted for consumers in 2007/2008. Also huge corporations have joined the HVD alliance so we should see some breakthroughs with disc costs. In the beginning it was just some ex-Sony engineers with a dream and some start up capital. Today Opware has plenty of funding and mind share.

 

[mckmas8808]

I have to disappoint you... ;-)

Yep he's saying that Sony's games will use Blu-ray disc. I for one will believe him.

 

[mckmas8808]

unless HD-DVD becomes the HD disc format. Then their excellent bet turns into a horrible money-pit.

How can HD-DVD outsell what PS3 (Blu-ray) owners will buy as far as software sales are concerned? It only makes sense that more BD movies will be brought by PS3 owners than all HD-DVD owners. And that's not even counting Blu-ray hardware only owners.

 

[SMOKE]

Blu Ray is very beneificial to us HDTV set owners, I couldnt even wait to get a 360 to see how that puppy looks on my set and there media format isnt even HD. I seen BR movies online andif its what I seen and will see more of in the next few weeks then I will gracefully embrace those discs into my arms and into my PS3. The birth of REAL HI DEF will fly off the shelves like the 360 has done on its launch day in the STATES. Like the poster said earlier my TV and people want to use there $2000 sets to its fullest advantage and thats the reason why they buy them. Just like most you guys on here who buy new GFX cards everytime a new one comes out.

 

[Sis]

unless HD-DVD becomes the HD disc format. Then their excellent bet turns into a horrible money-pit.

That's why it's a bet, not a sure thing Time will tell, but this seems to be standard procedure for Sony to introduce a new format with their console and it has done well for them so far.

So while I may be certainly suspect of a HD disc format, and while I think this is the earliest that Sony has ever tried to introduce a new format in that format's respective timeline, history is on their side. I would definitely grant that it's a good bet on Sony's part.

.Sis

 

[Brimstone]

Blu Ray is very beneificial to us HDTV set owners, I couldnt even wait to get a 360 to see how that puppy looks on my set and there media format isnt even HD. I seen BR movies online andif its what I seen and will see more of in the next few weeks then I will gracefully embrace those discs into my arms and into my PS3. The birth of REAL HI DEF will fly off the shelves like the 360 has done on its launch day in the STATES. Like the poster said earlier my TV and people want to use there $2000 sets to its fullest advantage and thats the reason why they buy them. Just like most you guys on here who buy new GFX cards everytime a new one comes out.

That is another thing that irks me a little right now. Sony is encoding Blu-Ray movies with MPEG-2 instead of a more advanced codec like h.264 (mpeg-4). I'd hope other movies studios don't follow their lead on that and instead go for VC-1 or h.264.

I don't get it. They've got a CELL CPU in each PS3 that should be able to handle decoding no problem. The Sony game plan might be to release movies with MPEG-2 at 720p resolution. Then down the road once again re-release the same movies with MPEG-4 at 1080p resolution.

 

[wco81]

That is another thing that irks me a little right now. Sony is encoding Blu-Ray movies with MPEG-2 instead of a more advanced codec like h.264 (mpeg-4). I'd hope other movies studios don't follow their lead on that and instead go for VC-1 or h.264.

I don't get it. They've got a CELL CPU in each PS3 that should be able to handle decoding no problem. The Sony game plan might be to release movies with MPEG-2 at 720p resolution. Then down the road once again re-release the same movies with MPEG-4 at 1080p resolution.

MPEG2 encoders and authoring tools are more mature. Encoders are probably faster too.

Of course, the anti Blu-Ray types are accusing Sony of using MPEG2 because they derive more patent royalties from MPEG2.

 

[Nicked]

That is another thing that irks me a little right now. Sony is encoding Blu-Ray movies with MPEG-2 instead of a more advanced codec like h.264 (mpeg-4). I'd hope other movies studios don't follow their lead on that and instead go for VC-1 or h.264.

I don't get it. They've got a CELL CPU in each PS3 that should be able to handle decoding no problem. The Sony game plan might be to release movies with MPEG-2 at 720p resolution. Then down the road once again re-release the same movies with MPEG-4 at 1080p resolution.

The quality is going to be the same, as long as they have the b/w to support their codec, there is simply no reason to bother changing. They know MPEG-2 works, its proven and is great quality. The other codecs are of course supported and other studios may use them, but uptake will probably only happen when as above ^^ authoring and encoding tools are up to scratch.

Of course, the anti Blu-Ray types are accusing Sony of using MPEG2 because they derive more patent royalties from MPEG2.

Studios can choose to use any of the supported codecs, so thats baseless.

 

[DemoCoder]

My ideal situation would be H.264 FRext, using 4:2:2. It would double the data rate, so you'd probably need 32Mbps, or if you use 12-bit, you'd need up to 48Mbps. That fits within the 54Mbps of BluRay.

Unfortunately, players aren't required to decoded FRext 4:2:2 12-bit, only 4:2:0 (H.264 FRext "High")

Many people will assert you can't see the chroma difference, but by golly, if I take a 6megapixel raw image from my digital SLR and decimate it to 4:2:0, I do see issues in skin tones. And every single MPEG-2, H.264, and VC-1 compressed stream I've seen exhibits the same issues.

 

[scooby_dooby]

How can HD-DVD outsell what PS3 (Blu-ray) owners will buy as far as software sales are concerned? It only makes sense that more BD movies will be brought by PS3 owners than all HD-DVD owners. And that's not even counting Blu-ray hardware only owners.

How the hell this "makes sense" is beyond me.

Mkcmass haven't we gone over this 1000 times? Every standalone HD-DVD player will sell media, only a small fraction of PS3's will sell media. To think more media will be sold on PS3's than all HD-DVD's combined is completely delusional, maybe it will, if HD-DVD completely falls on it's face, maybe it won't, it's FAR from a sure bet.

 

[mckmas8808]

How the hell this "makes sense" is beyond me.

Mkcmass haven't we gone over this 1000 times? Every standalone HD-DVD player will sell media, only a small fraction of PS3's will sell media. To think more media will be sold on PS3's than all HD-DVD's combined is completely delusional, maybe it will, if HD-DVD completely falls on it's face, maybe it won't, it's FAR from a sure bet.

You're right it is not a sure bet, but it's a bet that I'm willing to think will happen. The question is how many people within the first year will buy a HD-DVD player. IMO I think more people (x % of PS3 buyers) will buy more software media than all HD-DVD owners.

That's my personally opinion. You can think otherwise and that's ok. I guess we will see next year right?

 

[Nicked]

Every standalone HD-DVD player will sell media, only a small fraction of PS3's will sell media. To think more media will be sold on PS3's than all HD-DVD's combined is completely delusional, maybe it will, if HD-DVD completely falls on it's face, maybe it won't, it's FAR from a sure bet.

PS3 uptake will be much quicker than HD-DVD (especially since many analysts consider it will have a "soft" launch). HDTV owners are more likely to want to buy a PS3 (and be able to cough up +-$400) than most people. Someone who has a HDTV, and a PS3, is going to be buying Blu-ray movies. Why wouldn't they?
Even people without HDTVs will be more likely to buy BR movies because when they do upgrade, they'll have high-definition content, and until then they can watch slick 480i/p content on their PS3.

The cycle works thus:

HDTV owners: Drives Stand-alone/PS3 adoption, Blu-ray movie purchasing.
PS3: Drives HDTV adoption, Blu-ray movie purchasing.
Blu-ray: Drives Standalone/PS3 player adoption as well as HDTV adoption.

Its a three-pronged attack.

 

[Ty]

unless HD-DVD becomes the HD disc format. Then their excellent bet turns into a horrible money-pit.

Do you really think that's going to happen given all the momentum (sans HP agreeing to sign up for BOTH HD-DVD and BR) in the past few months?

 

[avaya]

Question, just how many HD-DVD players will be sold?

HD-DVD player manufacturers have a very serious problem trying to compete against the collective power of the biggest players in the CE space.

Apart from the small advantage they will have from coming to market 3-4months before the competition I fail to see how those HD-DVD players will compete when the Blu-Ray crowd come in and start dominating the shelf space, marketing and media.

 

[Gubbi]

Many people will assert you can't see the chroma difference, but by golly, if I take a 6megapixel raw image from my digital SLR and decimate it to 4:2:0, I do see issues in skin tones. And every single MPEG-2, H.264, and VC-1 compressed stream I've seen exhibits the same issues.

Yeah, it would be nice to see a study comparing reduction of the chroma channels in the spatial domain vs reduction in SNR.

I'd imagine the chroma channels could be compressed quite a bit harder than the luminance channel.

Cheers