Bill Gates: Both BluRay and HDDVD doomed for failure

[mckmas8808]

The simple fact is CDs are already near the limit of human hearing with respect to frequency. Video is currently far below human vision's gamut and resolution capability.

Video simply has much farther to go.

Praise the lord or all praise be to Allah whatever your religon just thank him that DemoCoder posts here. We need you to keep this place sane. To the people thinking that HD movies already lost or aren't going to catch on need to wake up and stop thinking like a 70 year old. My dad said people said the samethings about cassette tapes. HDTV sets are selling more and more year in a year out. Wake up people and read some reports on the internets.

 

[TrungGap]

Just wanted to add my 2 cents worth...

If quality is the main factor, then why haven't AM radio died out a long time ago? Here in the US, AM radio is still viable channel. Now, FM radio vs satellite radio is debatable, because with satellite you have to pay. But AM vs FM, why isn't AM dead? Beta vs VHS...etc.

see colon made a valid point, which is we as a whole tend choose a format of convenience over all else. Are people clamoring for HD? Or it's a nice to have? Maybe 480p is all that people really needed. And if that's the case, broadband might be able to deliver that content sooner. While BR and HD are battling out on who can deliver better quality for the price, the real showdown is when can broadband deliver acceptable quality content...(noticed I didn't define what is acceptable quality?).

However, it's nice to physically own a DVD/BR/HD movie as oppose to virtually have in your procession. Unless, I could just go over my friend's house have watch a movie i brought on his set-top box just by using my login instead of his.

 

[ondaedg]

There are people that like buying movies and owning them. Thats why I believe there will always be some kind of physical format. The same way a lot of people prefer to buy a cd, than downloading it from itunes.

I like owning movies as well. The question is what if the cable companies open up a library of movies to the point that any movie is available at any time to any user? I would never buy another movie again.

 

[see colon]

So have you abandoned disc based media and switched over to one of these services yet?
Then the next question would be why not since you guys seem convinced that it's so much more convenient than going to the video store.

i have steam, but as for video i usualy either on demand something or buy a dvd. i prefer to watch movies in the living room, so i choose the formats that are convenient for the living room.

Heh, it isn't like people without surround sound have the equipment to do surround sound justice. Unlike HD audio, and like surroundsound, HD displays/video makes a very obvious difference the moment you whitess it for yourself even on lower end equipment. Sure, plenty of people will settle for less just as many still use VHS today, but the takeup on HD displays is already greater than HD audio players by a long shot, and I don't see any reason to susspect that would be any different when the HD video player come out.

most HD audio formats (the exception being HDCD) support surround sound, and a good portion of HD audio content is encoded in more than 2 channels. so if people can't tell an obvious difference between SD audio and HD audio, it's probably because they aren't listening to it on the propper equipment.

the installed base for high def audio might be bigger than you think. a good portion of DVD-A releases include a dolby digital mix, making them compatable with standard DVD players.

 

[mckmas8808]

However, it's nice to physically own a DVD/BR/HD movie as oppose to virtually have in your procession. Unless, I could just go over my friend's house have watch a movie i brought on his set-top box just by using my login instead of his.

Yep and I don't see that happening nationwide just yet. How about people borrowing your movies? Will you just give them access to your login and password? I'm darn sure am not.

the installed base for high def audio might be bigger than you think. a good portion of DVD-A releases include a dolby digital mix, making them compatable with standard DVD players.

Yeah but will be crushed by the demand for HD video though.

 

[DemoCoder]

AM radio stations still exist because

a) owning the rights to broadcast on a specific frequency is valuable and stations aren't just going to abandon the spectrum and try to buy a slice of FM
b) AM radio reaches much further. You do realize that AM stations can reach 4000+ miles!
c) AM is cheaper to operate

And finally, AM radio has more talk radio and less music vs FM. It is more independent compared to the ClearChannel dominated FM, kinda like public cable access stations.

If there was a breakdown of civilization, thru nuclear war or natural disaster, I'd reach for an AM radio. Hell, you can build AM radios out of almost anything.

With respect to DVD-A, it has one feature which makes it sound definitately better than CD: discrete 5.1 separated channels, instead of matrixed surround. If you're a person who prefers 5.1, and appreciates what the LFE channel can do, than DVD-A properly mastered will sound better than stereo CD with a matrix decoder.

BUT, it isn't night and day like SD vs HD. For example, consumers will have no problem telling the difference between severely compressed MPEG-2 SD on cable/satellite displayed on an SD set and H.264 HP or VC-1 content on HD-DVD/BD-ROM displayed on an HD set. And even HD-DVD/BD-ROM scaled to 480p vs 720p/1080p will be recognizable. I've performed the tests myself (scaling down HD content for an SD TV) and the differences are very noticable.

Store demos won't have any trouble showing it.

 

[mckmas8808]

And even HD-DVD/BD-ROM scaled to 480p vs 720p/1080p will be recognizable. I've performed the tests myself (scaling down HD content for an SD TV) and the differences are very noticable.

Hold on, hold on, just hold the F on!!! Are you telling me that people will notice a difference between Blu-ray movies on SDTVs? If this is true then say bye bye to DVDs in a few years and HELLO to HD movies.

 

[randycat99]

After the dearth of image quality (or lack of) that has been afforded as of late by digital SD, you can be assured that even downsampled BR HD will be THE most data-rich video feed to ever grace the screen of a mere SD TV set.

 

[TrungGap]

AM radio stations still exist because

a) owning the rights to broadcast on a specific frequency is valuable and stations aren't just going to abandon the spectrum and try to buy a slice of FM
b) AM radio reaches much further. You do realize that AM stations can reach 4000+ miles!
c) AM is cheaper to operate

Pretty much all true. However, these points could apply to DVD also.

a) Existing DVD production capcity.
b) Existing market (DVD owners) is going to be hard to abandon
c) DVD are cheaper to make than BR/HD

And finally, AM radio has more talk radio and less music vs FM. It is more independent compared to the ClearChannel dominated FM, kinda like public cable access stations.

People finds AM accept in quality for their use (talk radio). I think a lot of people still haven't seen the glory of DVD on a good quality set. So, the outcry for higher quality isn't going to be by the masses, but by the audio/video-philes. I'm not arguing that the average joe won't notice the differences between SD and HD. I may be stupid, but I'm not blind. I'm not so sure average joe is willing to part with his hard earned cash for BR/HD.

And when will BR/HD be affordable? Probably a lot sooner than broadband is to a point where IPTV for the mass is viable. BR/HD will probably have a much shorter lifespan than VHS or DVD. However, with a short lifespan can BR recoup investment...eh, I take that back. I'm sure it'll recoup all the investments, but will it make a sizable profit?

I guess another thing we have to consider is this. From CD to DVD, we gone from 700MB to 4GB/9GB DVD (sl/dl). That's about a fold. From DVD (dl) to BR/HR, have we gone a fold yet? Maybe we should wait for HVD.

 

[DemoCoder]

I don't think most consumers realize how crappy DVD-5s with bonus features are. Remember, they are trying to stick a feature length movie, numerous audio tracks (including DD + DTS and DTS uses ALOT of bandwidth), numerous trailers, deleted scenes, "making of" specials, plus DVD-ROM extras on a 4.3 gigabyte disc.

In fact, this was the situation on DVD until Contact shipped (the first DVD-9), and even to this day, there are still many DVD-5 titles out there.

Let's say you want to stick a 2 hour movie on the disc. At MPEG-2 at 8mbps would require 7.2 gigabytes right there. So that goes out the window. In fact, if you fit the whole thing in 4.37gb, you'd need to code at 5.2mbps and then you'd have no space for audio tracks!

The reality is, DVD-5 discs (which were dominant until a few years ago) were coding MPEG-2 at 4.5mbps. Think DVD-9 faires much better? It doesn't. The reason why Superbit editions are so popular is because DVD-9 simply doesn't have enough space using MPEG-2 to code excellent quality low artifact video and include multiple audio tracks and other bonus features.

I hate bonus features unless they are on a separate disc because I know I am loosing image quality just to have all those trailers, outtakes, and deleted scenes.

Simply switching DVD-9 to use H.264 HP or VC-1 would make an enormous difference just to SD quality.

So yes, even if you are an SD consumer, BR/HD-DVD will benefit you because of the new codecs. In fact, many of the studios are not planning to use 15Gb HD-DVD discs, they want to ship "HD" video on HD-DVD-9 (9gigabyte red laser) using H264 or VC-1.

So the initial set of movies you're likely to buy (*ESPECIALLY* from Warner Bros) will not be a true representation of what the next-gen optical formats can produce.

Sony is also doing something very wasteful. They are going to use MPEG-2 for the movies they ship on BD-ROM, negating much of the extra space advantage. So instead of getting 30-40Mbit H.264/VC-1, you're going to get 16-18mbps MPEG-2.

In other words, Sony BD discs will look like ATSC OTA HDTV today. Ok, it looks better than SD, but why pay so much for next-gen optical if they are wasting it?

Depressing.

 

[DemoCoder]

HD/BD players will fall in price pretty quickly. Probably faster than DVDs did when they hit to market, because most of the technology is understood. Although the argument for HD-DVD is that it will fall even faster due to sharing more technology with DVD.

I wouldn't worry about it. Probably 1-2 years after players are shipped, sub-$200 chinese players should be on the market.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The reality is, DVD-5 discs (which were dominant until a few years ago) were coding MPEG-2 at 4.5mbps. Think DVD-9 faires much better? It doesn't. The reason why Superbit editions are so popular...

Just logged onto Play.com, one o fthe best sites for DVDs, games etc. They had 32 Superbit DVDs available. I like the idea of superbit but it doesn't seem to be tqking off, at leat not over here.

Sony is also doing something very wasteful. They are going to use MPEG-2 for the movies they ship on BD-ROM, negating much of the extra space advantage. So instead of getting 30-40Mbit H.264/VC-1, you're going to get 16-18mbps MPEG-2.

Really?! I thought they were going MPG4 and VC1. The spec certainly requires higher than 20 Mbps transfer speeds.

 

[London Geezer]

Isn't Superbit a whole rip-off not-so-high-quality thing Sony came out with to sell the same movies more?

I seem to remember reading reports that the average Superbit movie has lower bitrates than the best "normal" DVDs out there (think Lord of the Rings trilogy). Therefore this "superior quality" is largely false. Obviously there are the good ones, but the report suggested that many Superbit titles really were no higher quality than "high quality" normal DVDs.

 

[AlphaWolf]

HD/BD players will fall in price pretty quickly. Probably faster than DVDs did when they hit to market, because most of the technology is understood. Although the argument for HD-DVD is that it will fall even faster due to sharing more technology with DVD.

I wouldn't worry about it. Probably 1-2 years after players are shipped, sub-$200 chinese players should be on the market.

I think the factor that drives prices is more about demand than about being a known technology. I don't see the general population being all that excited about the opportunity to pay more for marginally better video quality (I'm saying most people won't notice a significant quality benefit as they don't own an HDTV).

Imo the studios are more likely to try to milk the niche market for a while rather than attempt to push demand for the players which they could do if they offer SE/higher quality/BD/HD only stuff at a reasonable price.

I expect they may hit a moderate range ($2-500) more quickly than DVD players did, but I don't know that they will advance to the really cheap level as quickly. A lot needs to happen in other areas for them to reach the saturation level of DVD's.

 

[DemoCoder]

Well, look at 2-layer DVD+RW. Most people don't need it. They started out mega expensive, and dropped real quick.

When you have a technology that shares many components, meaning they are already available, in volume, and produced cheaply, it makes it much easier to ramp up. It means when demand arrives, price drops happen quicker, because the supply can ramped up quickly and cost per unit goes down.

Sony is counting on PS3 to drive demand for BD.

Really?! I thought they were going MPG4 and VC1. The spec certainly requires higher than 20 Mbps transfer speeds.

BD permits MP2, H264, and VC1. But Sony is a movie studio too, and they have the decision that for their movies, they are going to utilize the MPEG-2 codec. Each studio has a choice. For example, Warner seems wed to VC-1.

 

[mckmas8808]

I think the factor that drives prices is more about demand than about being a known technology. I don't see the general population being all that excited about the opportunity to pay more for marginally better video quality (I'm saying most people won't notice a significant quality benefit as they don't own an HDTV).

WHAT? What country do you live in? Every single Sunday Night Football game ESPN repeats like one million times that the game is in HD. During Monday Night Football games on ABC they say the same thing. In darn near every show that is in HD the networks go out of their way to tell people that. And HDTV set sales are rising year over year.

Again I ask you. WHAT?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Well, look at 2-layer DVD+RW. Most people don't need it. They started out mega expensive, and dropped real quick.

That's more of a tweak to an existing technology than anything. I am sure you will see the same thing within the BR/HD units as features (speed/compatibility/density etc) increase even as price drops.

 

[expletive]

That's more of a tweak to an existing technology than anything. I am sure you will see the same thing within the BR/HD units as features (speed/compatibility/density etc) increase even as price drops.

And the media for Dual Layer DVD is still very expensive because of its relatively slow adoption, demand, and early production problems. Remember there has to be a very pricey conversion of media production facilities to create BR discs so theres a couple of pieces to this equation as Alpha put it previously. The ease/cost of production facility conversion is one of the big selling points to HD-DVD. This way they could be equipped to produce the media for very little risk capital and help drive the market from the media side.

 

[expletive]

Thought this was interesting and related.

http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=10009812&pageNumber=0

 

[one]

Thought this was interesting and related.

http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=10009812&pageNumber=0

Hollywood is gearing up for an ugly war over rival DVD formats, but the real battle may be in keeping customers hooked on physical discs at all.

"The irony of this format war is that it comes at the tail end of the century-long era of physical media," said Ted Schadler, analyst with Forrester Research.

http://www.microsoft.com/enable/research/default.aspx

Research Studies About Accessible Technology

Microsoft commissioned research to measure the current and potential market of accessible technology in the United States and understand how accessible technology is being used. The following reports are the result of research commissioned by Microsoft Corporation, and conducted by Forrester Research, Inc., between 2003 and 2004.

http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,33941,00.html

Is Linux More Secure Than Windows?

by Laura Koetzle

with Charles Rutstein, Natalie Lambert, Stephan Wenninger

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Microsoft gets a bad rap for security, while many believe that Linux is relatively secure. A fair assessment? Not really: After collecting a year's worth of vulnerability data, Forrester's analysis shows that both Windows and four key Linux distributions can be deployed securely. Key metrics include responsiveness to vulnerabilities, severity of vulnerabilities, and thoroughness in fixing flaws.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/158237_msftresearch27.html

Studies on Linux help their patron: Microsoft
Critics question how independent the analyses are

By TODD BISHOP
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Microsoft Corp. is touting the results of "independent analyses" in its latest effort to show corporate decision-makers the merits of its Windows operating system vs. Linux, its biggest open-source competitor.

The studies were, in fact, performed by well-known, independent research firms such as IDC, Giga Research and Meta Group. But the reports themselves tell the rest of the story: They were conducted "at the request of Microsoft," "commissioned by Microsoft" or "prepared under contract from Microsoft."

Microsoft, in other words, paid for the studies to be done.

...

It reached a boiling point last year, when Microsoft publicly disclosed the results of a study by Forrester Research subsidiary Giga Research that showed cost advantages of Windows over Linux. Microsoft commissioned the study, and Forrester Research Chief Executive Officer George Colony said in a public statement afterward that the firm erred in letting Microsoft talk publicly about the results.

http://www.forrester.com/Research/Document/Excerpt/0,7211,38085,00.html

October 19, 2005

Blu-ray Will Win A Pyrrhic Victory Over HD-DVD

Annoyance, Apathy, And Alternatives Will Keep Consumers Away

by Ted Schadler

with Josh Bernoff, Paul Jackson, Tenley McHarg

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Two groups are competing for control of high-definition DVD formats to be launched in spring 2006. After a long and tedious run up to the launch, it is now clear to Forrester that the Sony-led Blu-ray format will win. But unless the HD-DVD group abandons the field, it will be another two years before consumers are confident enough of the winner to think about buying a new format DVD player. In the meantime, they will expand their video-on-demand (VOD), downloadable video, and Internet video habits.