Bill Gates: Both BluRay and HDDVD doomed for failure

[expletive]

Only in some magical world were bandwidth grows on trees; but, as has been pointed out to you many times in this there, we have a long way to go before we get there.

Obviously we arent going ot have 20mb/sec on-demand anytime soon but I thought i gave a pretty clear example of the attainable bandwidth requirements of such a model. Not sure why you choose to ignore it.

Regardless there has been enough information out there that providers are going to DO it so even if we dont solve the problem here on this thread, they already have.

 

[kyleb]

Obviously we arent going ot have 20mb/sec on-demand anytime soon but I thought i gave a pretty clear example of the attainable bandwidth requirements of such a model. Not sure why you choose to ignore it.

Because your "example" was basicly just the on-demand and pay-per-view setup we have now and nowhere near same thing as the online delivery system Gates suggested would make high density optical drives pointless for the 360.

Regardless there has been enough information out there that providers are going to DO it so even if we dont solve the problem here on this thread, they already have.

No, no provides give you option to rent/buy anywhere close to the selection of content over their service compared to what you can get on optical disks; and for the reasons outlined previously in this thread, that isn't going to change any time soon.

 

[deathkiller]

Obviously we arent going ot have 20mb/sec on-demand anytime soon but I thought i gave a pretty clear example of the attainable bandwidth requirements of such a model. Not sure why you choose to ignore it.

Regardless there has been enough information out there that providers are going to DO it so even if we dont solve the problem here on this thread, they already have.

In Spain we have 20mb DSL(standar speed in a lot of ISP) and up to 4,5 mb/s SD mpeg2 video on demand.

I think that video on demand can destroy the rentals but it isn't the same market of the people who buy dvds.

 

[kyleb]

In Spain do your cable companies have petabytes of storgae dedicated to hosting video-on-demand for the full range of movies avalable on optical disks?

 

[Frank]

About the bandwidth:

Around here, technical students can get a 100 Mb line for free, from our government. So, there is a country-wide network (SurfNet), that is at least fast enough for that, and better than 100 Mb internally. Students can share things at the full 100 Mb between them. And while the internet connection was capped at 10 Mb until about a year ago, nowadays they get the full speed. Although I don't think there are any servers that can deliver that speed outside of SurfNet.

They won't get that speed when sharing stuff with people in Scandinavia who are on an equally fast network. Because the connections and switches in between those networks are too slow. Although they all ultimately use the European Internet backbone from the Amsterdam Exchange with their massive Tb++ switches, so that is mostly a question of contracts and cost.

There is a trial running for about a year now, to offer the same speed and infrastructure to customers. But, like DemoCoder said, the providers have not much interest in it. They just don't know what to do with it, and the amount of consumers who want it is low.

So, while it would be possible to do, most consumers want their internet cheap rather than fast. And it would take services like movies on demand to change that. Which is certainly possible, but requires large investments in servers and backbone hookups when the majority of the consumers would make use of it. Because, except for P2P, there is no real reason at the moment to have a very fast connection.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

On these fast services, how fast will they be when EVERYONe starts using them? At the moment a 2 Mb broadband can get pretty slow if you've lots of contention, and isn't the average up to 50:1? So 100 Mb shared 50 ways isn't enough for sustained 20Mb/s needed for on-demand HD movies.

 

[deathkiller]

In Spain do your cable companies have petabytes of storgae dedicated to hosting video-on-demand for the full range of movies avalable on optical disks?

Avable on videoclubs? probably, its not like normal videoclubs have every movie ever made and most of rentals are just "pick something that looks fun/I haven't seen before/it's new" and video on demand is fine for that.

If you want something expecific that is hard to find you probably want buy it.

 

[see colon]

while the talk of bandwidth (including the "you need 'X' MBpS for real HD") is relevent to today's HD requirements, it's not necessarily relevant to tomorrow's. it's obvious that BRD/HD-DVD (one or both) will be the next standard for video, but once they get the installed base and market maturity that DVD has today, we'll have compression that'll dwarf what we have today. look at what mpeg4, current realmedia, H.264, and WM10 are offering today compared to dvd's mpeg2 in terms of quality vs bitrate.

how do we know 5MBpS won't be enough when the time comes?

 

[Frank]

On these fast services, how fast will they be when EVERYONe starts using them? At the moment a 2 Mb broadband can get pretty slow if you've lots of contention, and isn't the average up to 50:1? So 100 Mb shared 50 ways isn't enough for sustained 20Mb/s needed for on-demand HD movies.

Yes, but the continent-wide infrastructure is there, and is expanded all the time to meet demand. The rest is up to the providers. Hookups to that backbone are expensive, but not as expensive as building your own backbone. So, if those providers have many customers, they need many regions, all with their own hookups to that backbone. And the optical fiber to route it through is in place in most regions.

The main bottleneck is, that our main local telecom provider supplies most of the connections to the houses, over their telecom network. Which is about to change, as on january first next year, they lose their monopoly on those. And other companies, like Versatel, have been building their own regional networks for some years now. There is no shortage of optical fibres!

There is only a shortage of things that their customers can possibly do with all that bandwidth. Like kyleb said, that is the hard and expensive part.

 

[kyleb]

Avable on videoclubs? probably, its not like normal videoclubs have every movie ever made and most of rentals are just "pick something that looks fun/I haven't seen before/it's new" and video on demand is fine for that.

If you want something expecific that is hard to find you probably want buy it.

I mean if I bump into someone who has never seen Monty Python's Holy Grail or one of the thousands of other movies avalable at a local video store, can I tell people in Span that they can find that on-demand from their cable company? Yes, on-demand is out now and has its purpose for the rent someting fun to watch bit; but it doesn't come anywhere close to making optical disks obsolite.

 

[expletive]

Because your "example" was basicly just the on-demand and pay-per-view setup we have now and nowhere near same thing as the online delivery system Gates suggested would make high density optical drives pointless for the 360.

No, no provides give you option to rent/buy anywhere close to the selection of content over their service compared to what you can get on optical disks; and for the reasons outlined previously in this thread, that isn't going to change any time soon.

My example provided a method for digital distribution of HD content without anyone needing bandwidth equal to the bitrate of the content(actually the BW requirements were a LOT less), thats all.

No provider provides that now, but your comparing to the CURRENT optical disc standard. I think you need to compare an online HD service to whats available on the HD optical disc formats.

If the format war slows growth of the the HD optical format, studios will be in no hurry to start converting their back catalog to HD discs.

Ive said from the beginning that the format war plays a part in digital distribution taking hold. There will probably be at least 2 years of consumer confusion before either of the formats can take hold.

 

[eDoshin]

Maybe I'm becoming what my parents were and letting technology pass me by, but I cannot fathom not having a physical collection of movies. Music is different because even in the days of vinyl, we would record our favorite songs from multiples LPs onto one tape .. and today we download and dump our entire collection onto our iPods and access them thru playlists. While I still want movies on the go without lugging a big collection of discs, I want both the physical media AND the portable.

 

[kyleb]

My example provided a method for digital distribution of HD content without anyone needing bandwidth equal to the bitrate of the content(actually the BW requirements were a LOT less), thats all.

No provider provides that now, but your comparing to the CURRENT optical disc standard. I think you need to compare an online HD service to whats available on the HD optical disc formats.

If the format war slows growth of the the HD optical format, studios will be in no hurry to start converting their back catalog to HD discs.

Ive said from the beginning that the format war plays a part in digital distribution taking hold. There will probably be at least 2 years of consumer confusion before either of the formats can take hold.

And in that 2 years our bandwidth and storage ablities would have to have to multiply exponentally for online distributiion to be reasonable on a global scale. Are you willing to accept this now or shall we meet up in a few years for you to explain how wrong you were?

 

[Frank]

So, the only question that remains is: in what way are the media companies going to get their pay for the copy? And through peer-to-peer if possible, as that would save them from investing in really very expensive infrastructure and servers. That would almost be money for nothing for them, and much better than the current models. Rather stange they didn't do much or anything with that so far. It's probably too close to "allowing the criminal pirates to get their way" to them.

 

[Frank]

Btw, in how far can the quality of existing 35 mm film be expanded? I think real DVD quality is about the limit for much of them. What's the use of having blocks of pixels that all have the same color? They could use interpolation, but would that improve things?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Regards film resolution, I can't remember exact figures but I know rendering for a movie needs an output resolution of several thousand by several thousand. A standard 35mm film tends to reach about 10 megapixels worth of data, and a slow, fine-grained film can push 25 megapixels.

So HDTV at 1080p, 2 megapixels, is far short of what is contained in a 35mm film frame.

 

[expletive]

And in that 2 years our bandwidth and storage ablities would have to have to multiply exponentally for online distributiion to be reasonable on a global scale. Are you willing to accept this now or shall we meet up in a few years for you to explain how wrong you were?

I think you missed the post where i explained the math on how it could work today. In theory, it could work over a 768kb DSL line. Go back and read that and then youll see where i'm coming from. I cant think of how to make any simpler then that so if we're still not at least agreeing on what each other is saying, i say we leave it be.

 

[randycat99]

Regards film resolution, I can't remember exact figures but I know rendering for a movie needs an output resolution of several thousand by several thousand. A standard 35mm film tends to reach about 10 megapixels worth of data, and a slow, fine-grained film can push 25 megapixels.

So HDTV at 1080p, 2 megapixels, is far short of what is contained in a 35mm film frame.

From what I've heard, it is merely only one more doubling along each dimension from 1080p, and you will essentially be at film resolution. I think this makes Hollywood awfully nervous about how much "quality" they think the consumer is deserving of in a consumer distribution format, being so close to what they have in the masters.

 

[AlphaWolf]

From what I've heard, it is merely only one more doubling along each dimension from 1080p, and you will essentially be at film resolution. I think this makes Hollywood awfully nervous about how much "quality" they think the consumer is deserving of in a consumer distribution format, being so close to what they have in the masters.

Hollywood films aren't 35mm are they? Pretty sure they shoot at 60 or 80 or something.

 

[kyleb]

I think you missed the post where i explained the math on how it could work today. In theory, it could work over a 768kb DSL line. Go back and read that and then youll see where i'm coming from.

Go back and read my response to that to see where you are wrong.

I cant think of how to make any simpler then that so if we're still not at least agreeing on what each other is saying, i say we leave it be.

the problem is you are over simplifying and glossing right over some huge huttles that we are a long way from being able to overcome.