Ars Technica rumor claims 399 40GB PS3 this year

The European Playstation site don´t have that, since we only have one SKU with "EE" emulation. You may be right in the assumption that the size of the hard drive is a very convenient way to identify the different versions and that may be the reason why we haven´t seen the 80 GB version in Europe yet.

Here are some more contributions to the conspiracy theories:

I think Sony saved a lot of money by not releasing a PAL version of the PS3 with the "EE+GS" chip not only from BOM point of view but also from the cost of SW point of view. They didn´t have to verify all PAL titles for backwards compatibility, instead they only needed to verify the NTSC versions and right after the release last fall those resources were reassigned to verify the PAL PS3 version with "EE" emulation and after the PAL release they were re-assigned once more the new NTSC version.

Another benefit is that it will give Sony one less PAL SKU to maintain firmware updates for.

Here´s a question to the devs with insight into PS2 development. Could it possibly be more work getting the "EE" emulation up to snuff on the NTSC version compared to the PAL version because they usually run at a higher frame rate of 60 Hz compare to 50 Hz? Could that also be one of the reason why the PAL countries got "EE" emulation first?

Some more conspiracy theories.
I think it would make sense if the RSX and the "GS" chip got merged some time in the future at a smaller process. I think that is also likely to happen to the Xenos mother and daughter dice. We will never see the Cell and RSX merged like the "EE+GS" chip because they run at very different speeds and the Cell may end up to be a mass produced and used in other consumer products as well.
Merging chips is a very efficient mean to cost reduction when possible. The die size of the GS at 90 nm can be estimated to about 40 mm2 from the available die shots of the "EE+GS". The RSX at 90 nm is about 240 mm2. As they are running at pretty similar speeds they seem to be likely candidates to be merged maybe at the 45 nm process perhaps earlier.

I might add that I find it unlikely that they could emulate the GS purely in software and I would certainly be truelly shocked if Sony presented such a solution later this fall after they have gone through all the hassle to achieve and verify the current level of backward compatibility.

 

Believe it or not, some people actually care about backward compatibility for games that they missed or kept.

I, for one, wouldn't buy PS3 if it wasn't the best "PS2 game player" out there.

I doubt Europe will ever see the US/Korean 80 GB with the same motherboard.

 

I don't doubt it. The existence of a cheaper SKU that lacks that ability would in no way punish you. If you want the feature, you would buy the more expensive model that still has it.

 

That's a different issue than importance of backwards compatibility which you said making up for having only five HD games available.

The option would be nice, but everything so far points out that Sony don't want to maintain two different motherboards as its not necessarily cheaper. The only time we will see a motherboard without GS is when full software emulation is close to completion.

 

It seems very unlikely to me they'll announce a pricedrop months before it's going to be available.

If they announce this pricedrop at TGS, it's gonna have to be on teh shelves right away. Since we haven't had any leaks from BestBuy or other retailers about the new SKU, I'm gonna go ahead an predict no PS3 pricedrop during TGS.

I believe them when they say it's coming, but I wouldn't expect an announcement any time soon.

 

Well, it could be a Japanese exclusive launch for now, being TGS and all. They are having a tough time against N and they really need to make their presence known in Japan and EU (mindshare) as they still have a shot at those markets. A cheaper sku would do wonders for them in Japan, but we might not see it leaked before it happens.

I wouldn't hold my breath on this sku coming anytime soon though. Then again, never underestimate Sony's engineering/manufacturing.

 

Christmas would be too late, it has to be on the streets at least from the begining of November...

 

Definately, which means sometime in the next 5 weeks...

TGS would be ideal, it's just strange we haven't had any rumours from the retailers about it...

 

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=28828

 

So how does the "source" at Ars Technica respond to it?

 

They didn't give a date to the rumour, did they? Thus they have until Dec 31st for this rumour to happen. If Sony think they can bag sales now on software alone, it'd make financial sense to continue selling high and drop the price in a month's time.

 

Seemingly, they aren't really dropping the price. More along the lines of (re)introducing a new, cheaper sku.

 

The PS3 will get trampled by Wii and X360 if they don't do a price drop before Christmas IMO. I don't know if they would ever catch up in sales.

 

In the US that's already a done deal I think. In other regions, it seems they are selling quite well at more than double the price of their competition.

Perhaps the best course of action is no pricedrop and just wait for BOM reductions, and aim for breaking even (financially) next quarter.

 

Well, I've been of the opinion that a drop to $400 would just be too extreme, and not justified on the BOM side by a 40GB drive alone. So... the non-announcement at TGS was in line with my own thoughts on the matter. That said, the story's never closed on these things until it's closed, so if they did lower the price sometime in the next weeks, my mind certainly wouldn't implode. But... it's just always seemed too disconnected from their goals of returning SCE to profitability.

 

Possibly. But there is no doubt that a $399 PS3 would increase sales. If they know they likely won't catch up in the US why wouldn't they price drop in UK and other territories were it's seems to be doing better ?

 

The reason why would be because each of those sales would equate to $100 extra loss per unit; 1 million additional sales, $100 million additional loss to absorb. 2 million would be $200 million. Not saying what's right or wrong or what the various decision chains for Sony are - as we clearly can't know - but in terms of why, that would be the why.

 

So, are you of the opinion sony should just cede North America at this point, accepting a spot behind MS?

Or, do you think they still have a chance of competing in NA without any cuts this year?

If it's the latter I'd be interested in your forecast. It seems to me that without a cut by Sony this holiday, MS will open up their lead to around 7-8million units in NA by next spring, and at that point, Sony can forget about coming back from behind.

They are also putting their BR investment in serious jeopardy here, if they become a distant 3rd in the US, hd-dvd has a much stronger chance of winning the format war. This throws ALL their investment into BR out the window. (How many millions(billion?) are we talking there?)

I think 200-300million extra in losses this holiday, to keep it close, might be worth it.