AMD Console Wins for 2017?

[orangpelupa]

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/...aming-processors-coming-soon-is-one-for-xbox/

So, in 2017 we'll get xbox one and a half, PS4k, NX?

Or ps4k, NX home, and NX portable?

 

[BRiT]

Or maybe one of the portables is for an Xbox Portable handheld like the PS Vita ?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Didn't ms say they are not interested in handhelds? If ms ever makes something resembling a handheld I'd say they'll make a very powerful x86 based phone and market it along with continium.

Other than that amd being in all the 2017 consoles is a given. Ms and Sony don't have a choice and as backwards as Nintendo can be, they have a long relationship with amd/ati and with Sony and ms Also using a amd solution it would be crazy to go with something else unless the nx is going to be totally different from a normal consoles.

 

[Transponster]

So, in 2017 we'll get xbox one and a half, PS4k, NX?

"By" 2017, New PS4, if the recent rumours are true, is coming out in October(-November). At least one NX product should also release this year.

 

[Shortbread]

For those who are still holding on to "this isn't happening"...

AMD expects $1.5B in future revenue for three new gaming processors—but what are they?

During AMD's Q1 2016 earnings call on Thursday, executives from AMD estimated a 15 percent revenue increase in Q2 2016, plus or minus 3 points, and they cited three semi-custom system-on-chip (SOC) "wins" as the "larger driver" for that revenue. AMD estimates that these SOCs will bring in $1.5 billion in revenue "over the next three or four years." At least one of those three SOC deliveries will begin "ramping" in the second half of this year, with all of those SOCs launching by 2017.

The reason that news is interesting is because AMD's SOC products have mostly been the core components in small-form-factor games consoles in recent years, and major news leaks have connected one of those upcoming AMD SOCs to the "Neo" refresh of the PlayStation 4, which could launch as soon as October of this year.

AMD's CEO Lisa Su made it clear during the earnings call that these semi-custom wins were related to the gaming sector, describing "semi-custom business and gaming" as the "larger driver" of Q2's revenue growth. "If you think about the semi-custom business in the past few years, the third quarter is always the peak," Su told reporters. "It will be the peak this year, as well, but we're starting some of the ramping in the second quarter as we build to the stronger third quarter."

But who is purchasing those other two gaming-related SOCs? AMD remained coy when asked directly: "I don't believe we've gone through any detail about what those wins are," Su said in the call. "I'd prefer to let that come out as our customers are ready to launch."

 

[London Geezer]

In a market with three players, it's really hard to imagine who the three chips could be for. Nope, no idea.

 

[iroboto]

In a market with three players, it's really hard to imagine who the three chips could be for. Nope, no idea.

samsung, qualcomm, and apple.. duhh

 

[mpg1]

AMD market cap is only $2.74B

Surprised someone doesn't swoop in and buy it...

 

[function]

Hoping MS hold off till 2017 and launch something crazy fast. Neo is mixing things up and keeping the industry exciting to follow. I want to see more of this.

 

[Rangers]

AMD market cap is only $2.74B

Surprised someone doesn't swoop in and buy it...

It's been INSANELY low for a while. Considering the $ companies throw around for other companies, it's insane to me somebody didn't grab AMD long ago. The patents alone would seem to be 10X worth it.

Although I guess when there was talk of MS buying AMD a lot of scared console forum warriors were all " Microsoft cant be allowed to do this, anti-trust!". So there's that.

Anyways, AMD stock is up almost a whopping FORTY PERCENT today. Basically to my untrained eye looks they had another very mediocre quarter on the results, but mentioned they did something with servers in China and that got people all excited cus you know, China. We'll see if it holds up.

Of course, 40% just means it went from under $3 to under $4...it's damn near a penny stock.

 

[Grall]

Although I guess when there was talk of MS buying AMD a lot of scared console forum warriors were all " Microsoft cant be allowed to do this, anti-trust!". So there's that.

MS role as a gadget company is weak enough as it is, what would they do with AMD's CPU business for example? And considering they can't even get a games studio to stay in business for more than ten years tops (and typically much less before they close it down), if MS were to buy AMD I would give them a week tops, then MS would take one look at the mess that is AMD, go like, "WHAT did I drink last night?!", and shut down the lot of it that very afternoon.

Just because you have more surplus cash than you really know what to do with (and MS sure qualifies) doesn't mean the companies are a good match. Even Apple would not be a good match for AMD, Apple isn't into designing and manufacturing chips for other companies. Their MO is rather squeezing people through a Steve Jobs reality distortion filter to make them conform to Apple-shaped products.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's been INSANELY low for a while. Considering the $ companies throw around for other companies.

That's very true. $1 billion for Minecraft, which is just software and a brand, versus <$3 billion for crazy IP, hardware facilities, etc.

 

[Rikimaru]

That's very true. $1 billion for Minecraft, which is just software and a brand, versus <$3 billion for crazy IP, hardware facilities, etc.

Thousands of paid workers, loans, etc.

 

[3dilettante]

That's very true. $1 billion for Minecraft, which is just software and a brand, versus <$3 billion for crazy IP, hardware facilities, etc.

Plus more debt than the market cap, poor market presence, high expenditures, unclear future, guaranteed legal problems.
Minecraft makes money.
I've made more net profit over my lifetime than AMD has. (Note: A dirt farmer that has made a net profit in a handful of dirt has made more in the balance than AMD has.)

 

[function]

Are Intel ever going to let AMD flourish though? No doubt AMD have made their fair share of mistakes, but even when they were offering vastly superior products they were effectively strangled by Intel using outright illegal policies to bribe and threaten all significant customers into starving AMD of revenue.

This is not to say that Intel aren't outstanding at making processors - they clearly are - just to say that when AMD have delivered a comprehensively better product they have been just as brilliant at starving AMD of income. Why would that ever change? The fines Intel took for using said practices (in a pretty damn lax environment to begin with) were a pittance compared to vast fortunes that their investments in said practices accrued.

It seems that all Intel will ever do is allow AMD to survive ... maybe.

 

[3dilettante]

Are Intel ever going to let AMD flourish though?

At this point, AMD's problems are too legion for Intel to just "let" AMD succeed. Intel would have to just start paying AMD a lot of money, although there were rumors that Intel was going to pay AMD for some graphics IP licensing.

Intel would have to purposefully stop growing, and it is already undergoing a workforce contraction due to its own problems and competitive pressures. These other pressures are simply bigger. It's not clear where doing something for or against AMD outweighs doing things for/against ARM, its licensees, mobile, datacenters, IBM, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Oracle, etc.

The various acts Intel has committed against AMD in the past are in the past. AMD's leadership has already taken a pittance for them.

The biggest problem with AMD right now for buying stock is that there is a very real likelihood that the stock price is going to 0 in several years. Some of the most realistic scenarios going forward for creditors only modestly help shareholders--if AMD is successful enough such that its revenues retire enough debt to sell the company off in pieces to retire the rest. That leads to limited long-term value and the trigger would likely be pulled when there are enough downsides (lost value in IP, more staff to fire) that buyers could get concessions.

 

[function]

At this point, AMD's problems are too legion for Intel to just "let" AMD succeed. Intel would have to just start paying AMD a lot of money, although there were rumors that Intel was going to pay AMD for some graphics IP licensing.

Intel would have to purposefully stop growing, and it is already undergoing a workforce contraction due to its own problems and competitive pressures. These other pressures are simply bigger. It's not clear where doing something for or against AMD outweighs doing things for/against ARM, its licensees, mobile, datacenters, IBM, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Oracle, etc.

The various acts Intel has committed against AMD in the past are in the past. AMD's leadership has already taken a pittance for them.

The biggest problem with AMD right now for buying stock is that there is a very real likelihood that the stock price is going to 0 in several years. Some of the most realistic scenarios going forward for creditors only modestly help shareholders--if AMD is successful enough such that its revenues retire enough debt to sell the company off in pieces to retire the rest. That leads to limited long-term value and the trigger would likely be pulled when there are enough downsides (lost value in IP, more staff to fire) that buyers could get concessions.

You write an understandably realistic but depressing analysis, 3dilettante.

Perhaps you should start writing distopian sci-fi novels with depressing endings too.

 

[zed]

That's very true. $1 billion for Minecraft, which is just software and a brand, versus <$3 billion for crazy IP, hardware facilities, etc.

Thats not the worse (though I think it was $2+billion)
Uber's >$60 billion valuation which is more than GM or Ford, now thats just insanity

 

[Rangers]

A lot of NX news breaking today. Has the ring of truth to me. Because it's about time for hard leaks now that we have as firm early 2017 release date. Emily Rogers:

https://arcadegirl64.wordpress.com/2016/05/13/so-about-nx/

After speaking to seven different people this week, I can say with confidence that this is false. NX is not using x86 architecture like PlayStation 4 and Xbox One. The NX has special, custom-made chips and the overall design of the hardware is very modern. The chips are industry leading because they are very modern chips, but having modern chips doesn’t necessarily mean Nintendo is aiming to create the most powerful hardware on the market. Furthermore, any NX rumors on “Polaris chips” and “Polaris architecture” are all wacky. There’s a good reason why those rumors are wacky.

In terms of raw power, numerous sources tell me that NX is much closer to Xbox One than PlayStation 4. Even that might be stretching it a tiny bit. Anyone who is claiming that NX is “two times the power of PS4 GPU” is being misled by their sources. Based on what I’ve heard, I don’t believe the NX will compete directly with PS4 (Neo) / PS4K in raw power.

There will be plenty of debates over the NX’s specs because it’s not simple to directly compare two apples (with x86 architecture) to an orange (that doesn’t use x86 architecture). But everything that I’ve heard (so far) indicates that NX isn’t going to blow away any of the consoles on the market today…except for Wii U.

This then appeared on Semiaccurate.com, behind a paywall, summarized

The article is available to subscribers only, however the gist of it is this:

• Though Nvidia downplayed console margins, their pride was hurt by the loss in console contracts. All the talk about "focusing on Shield" was a cover for the fact that MS and Sony had soured on them and would not enter negotiations.
  
• Nvidia team was told to get a console win or "go home." Enter Nintendo, who apparently made off very well in this deal. This to the point that SemiAccurate questions whether this is a "win" at all for Nvidia.
  
• SA has heard that Nvidia are promising software, support, and the whole shebang at a very low cost. According to one source, Nvidia may even be taking a loss on this deal.
  
• Not mentioned which generation of Tegra or process node will be used or when the handheld is scheduled for release.
  
• No mention of the home console, but we can speculate what that might be and who might provide the chipset for that one.

It sounds to me like a Shield level chipset. Probably with more bandwidth, but my guess is still hampered by bandwidth. Probably around 1TF Xbox One level...

In a way that's better than I was half expecting TBH.

Or perhaps this should go in the next gen speculation thread?

 

[BRiT]

This line here sounds like total bullshit to me ...

Nvidia team was told to get a console win or "go home." Enter Nintendo, who apparently made off very well in this deal. This to the point that SemiAccurate questions whether this is a "win" at all for Nvidia.

We know for a fact that AMD has 3 major console wins. I don't think there is any way in hell for Nvidia to get a contract given that.