All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[iroboto]

No they made no mention of NDP results for the last two months IIRC

 

[djskribbles]

^Sure they did. Xbox family sold 754K in the US between July and the end of September. So what, maybe 1-1.2M shipped to the US? Another 100-200K for Canada?

As DieH@rd said, they launched in 28 more countries this quarter.

Not bad, not great?

 

[iroboto]

^^oh ok. Weird I really don't recall that. Thanks though.

 

[Rangers]

I think it's pretty solid, dare I say healthy.

It's the second most Xbox's MS has ever shipped in a 3rd Q (360 did 2.8 in 2010)

They look primed to ship 7-8 million xbox's in the 4thQ.

xbo should be around 7.5 million shipped now, we had 5.1 after 2 quarters then they started combining. my guess would be 700k of last Q's 1.1 was xbo, and 1.7 of this Q's 2.4. Those numbers should be close either way.

Sony's number will be interesting for lots of reasons. 4-5 million would be good and achievable for them. But they shouldn't triple Xboxen like last quarter, unless I am wrong.

Sony typically starts shipping for holidays about a month earlier than Xbox, so they usually have a relatively strong September quarter followed by a more lackluster 4th Q (all this is relative to Xbox, so they may kill Xbox either way this time). That's one reason I say it will be interesting.

 

[temesgen]

Will totally depend on the games budget. A million sold should very much be considered a success. Assuming the financial breakdown of a $60 game is accurate, the publisher/developer should get about $38 in profit per copy sold, then a million sold is 38 million dollars. I would hope they didn't spend that much money on an exclusive releasing early on in a consoles life. Even at 500k, that would still be 19 million. I know budgets have gotten pretty high, but you would hope that a new IP's budget would kept under control. When you look at sales figures for software on X1, even the 500k mark is not guaranteed. Only about 8 titles are over the million mark, and then it quickly drops to less than 500k sold. People assume that the majority of games sell over a million copies, but that's only true for about 10 IP's such as COD and FIFA.

What is sort of sad, is that some people actually root against a games success when its not coming to their platform of choice. If Sunset Overdrive comes out and puts up pretty low numbers, these clowns will celebrate as if they somehow won something. The same thing is happening right now with Bayonetta 2 on Wii U. These clowns are so bitter than its not coming to their console that they hope it fails. Some of them even claiming to be Bayonetta fans. Think about that, what are the chances of a third Bayonetta game being developed if Bayonetta 2 bombs? The chances wont go up, that's for sure. Many of these IP's go exclusive because the console manufacture is often the only one willing to fund it. Publishers like Activision and Ubisoft are less and less likely to publish anything that doesn't have that very broad mainstream appeal.

This is not new, for years we've had attacks on Sony first and second party exclusives, we even had a thread devoted to it a few weeks ago. SO is the type of game that historically has been released on Playstation platforms and the negative feedback is consistent:

wont sell well
wont move hardware
looks boring

when in reality it will probably be a decent game that helps round out the game library for XB1 fans. I'm inclined to believe it won't sell all that well but that has little to do with the actual quality of the game.

 

[DieH@rd]

Not bad, not great?

It will become more bad as soon as Sony releases their numbers.

 

[Rangers]

Edit: Lets try this

 

[djskribbles]

I think it's pretty solid, dare I say healthy.

It's the second most Xbox's MS has ever shipped in a 3rd Q (360 did 2.8 in 2010)

They look primed to ship 7-8 million xbox's in the 4thQ.

Wasn't their best Q4 8.2M? If you're basing your Q4 prediction on their Q3 performance, keep in mind that they launched in 28 more countries this quarter. If we assumed that the XB1 was available in these countries from the start, then it would be a much lower number. 8M seems unlikely, and I think they'd be lucky to ship 7M. MS has only ever shipped 6M or more XBs 3 times in Q4.

In regards to Q3, the number is pretty good. But the fact that they launched in 28 more countries makes it just ok.

 

[Rangers]

Wasn't their best Q4 8.2M? If you're basing your Q4 prediction on their Q3 performance, keep in mind that they launched in 28 more countries this quarter. If we assumed that the XB1 was available in these countries from the start, then it would be a much lower number. 8M seems unlikely, and I think they'd be lucky to ship 7M.

I said 7-8 million

The 28 countries dont count for much, some people seem to reverse course daily on whether those matter, today they do I guess

I actually do think by the numbers they probably helped XBO significantly, guessing 300 or 400k to those new markets which is significant. Just based off the reported 100k to China I figured that.

If XBO sells ~2.5 million in Oct-Nov-Dec (lets assume they do ~1m Nov and Dec each) in the States that probably translates to shipping 5m worldwide. So then you only need 2m 360's to hit 7m, which seems reachable. Lots of slack in all the numbers of course. 4th quarter 2013 I have 3.5m 360 shipped so 2.0 or more seems reasonable even allowing for a big decline.

Just spitballed numbers.

 

[djskribbles]

Those 28 countries don't count for much in overall sales. But when they're launching in all 28 of those countries in one quarter, it does count for a pretty significant chunk of their quarterly shipment numbers. 3-400k? I was thinking more like 500k.

I think XB will ship more like 5.5-6.5M in Q4.

 

[Shortbread]

So…
• MS announced they shipped 5 million XB1 units (November-March) in April.
• MS announced Xbox family shipped 1.1 million consoles between April and June.
• MS announced Xbox family shipped 2.4 million consoles between July and September.

So, MS shipped around 6.8-7.2 million XB1s… possibly sold 5.7-6.1 million units… with 1.1 million units floating between channels/retailers worldwide. Sounds about right…

<10 million XB1s sold by years-end seems more plausible "now"… selling 3.8-3.9 million units (sold through to customers) between now and the end of the year isn’t happening without a major price cut.

 

[Prophecy2k]

So…
• MS announced they shipped 5 million XB1 units (November-March) in April.
• MS announced Xbox family shipped 1.1 million consoles between April and June.
• MS announced Xbox family shipped 2.4 million consoles between July and September.

So, MS shipped around 6.8-7.2 million XB1s… possibly sold 5.7-6.1 million units… with 1.1 million units floating between channels/retailers worldwide. Sounds about right…

>10 million XB1s sold by years-end seems more plausible "now"… selling 3.8-3.9 million units (sold through to customers) between now and the end of the year isn’t happening without a major price cut.

The bolded doesn't seem to jive with your earlier analysis. Also, the 1.1 and 2.4 million unit numbers include XB360, which still seems to sell considerable units.

I can't honestly see a way the XB1 does more than 10 million unit sold through to consumers by the end of the year.

I'm sure they can ship that many, since they need only stuff the channels so that they can meet that target.

It will be interesting to see how XB1 sales do outside of the US over Q4. Seems the US is increasingly becoming the market they depend upon the most, to an extent that I would argue is unhealthy for the future of Xbox as a global brand.

 

[Rangers]

It will be interesting to see how XB1 sales do outside of the US over Q4. Seems the US is increasingly becoming the market they depend upon the most, to an extent that I would argue is unhealthy for the future of Xbox as a global brand.

I dont see how it's provable they're more dependant. Without actual sales figures outside the USA (besides Japan).

What's happened is they've slipped in every market. But we dont know they've slipped more relatively in some.

Example, if they had 70% of core market sales (basically Xbox and Playstation) last gen in USA, and lets say 30% in Italy or some pro Sony Europe country, this gen it's like they have 35% in USA, so maybe now they also have only 15% in Italy.

They still do have a decent presence even in central Europe. Even in Germany or Italy I've already seen the XBO versions of popular multiplats take #2, or you see XBO versions above PS3 version sometimes as another indicator.

It's likely even 15% market share would allow that.

 

[Nesh]

MS plans to market the thing as a major device for watching and improving the TV experience is proven utopian. If there was one place that this would have worked is the US.
As predicted by many, the console wouldnt catch the average TV coach potatoes by the storm. Some may blame the absence of Kinect 2 on the later SKU's, but this wouldnt have happened if the original version was convincing.

 

[steveOrino]

MS plans to market the thing as a major device for watching and improving the TV experience is proven utopian. If there was one place that this would have worked is the US.
As predicted by many, the console wouldnt catch the average TV coach potatoes by the storm. Some may blame the absence of Kinect 2 on the later SKU's, but this wouldnt have happened if the original version was convincing.

In the US there are way too many cheaper (arguably better) alternatives to watching video on a TV. Many of the new cable/sat (Genie, Xinfinity, etc) boxes provided by the companies make many of the features of the X1 redundant.

A lot of shortsightedness imo, brand overestimation (people viewing XBOX and anything other than a gaming brand) and overconfidence that they could dodge history. Ability to play game software better than the previous generation is the only feature consumers want from these platforms and time and time again its proven that they aren't willing to pay for extras beyond that functionality.

 

[wco81]

Ars Technica estimates the PS4 is outselling the X1 by at least a 40% margin.

 

[Shortbread]

The bolded doesn't seem to jive with your earlier analysis. Also, the 1.1 and 2.4 million unit numbers include XB360, which still seems to sell considerable units.

I can't honestly see a way the XB1 does more than 10 million unit sold through to consumers by the end of the year.

I'm sure they can ship that many, since they need only stuff the channels so that they can meet that target.

It will be interesting to see how XB1 sales do outside of the US over Q4. Seems the US is increasingly becoming the market they depend upon the most, to an extent that I would argue is unhealthy for the future of Xbox as a global brand.

Actually that's my fault. That should have been <10 million, not >10 million. Rushing as usual.

 

[Shortbread]

Ars Technica estimates the PS4 is outselling the X1 by at least a 40% margin.

From what I understand, is that XB1 US monthly sales surpass all other territories combined. So, if XB1 is doing minimally 200k a month stateside, it's other territories combined are doing around ~165k. Hopefully China and some other future territories will push XB1 along... depending so much on U.S. and UK sales, spells disaster, IMHO, especially when PS4 is leading in both.

 

[MrFox]

Ars Technica estimates the PS4 is outselling the X1 by at least a 40% margin.

Do I understand correctly that Kyle deduced that there's currently only 300k XB1 in the channels worldwide, to end up with 7.42M sold for 7.75M shipped? And then he compared this to some imaginary PS4 sales that would have to completely flatline during the Destiny bundle period?

"* Number represent ceiling for XB1 estimate, and floor for PS4 estimate"

Okay. That's one way to write an article.

 

[SedentaryJourney]

His estimated floor is below what the actual floor must be if you take into account recent NPD data for August and September. So yeah, even this fantasy analysis is flawed.