NPD June 2008

[AlNom]

For reference,

Reference to compare what?

Yeah, the FF13 announcement will just screws sony's just gained momentum.

huh?

 

[iceberg187]

For reference,

Halo3, 3.3 million, Xbox360 527k (3.3m looks fake, more like 1.5m...)
Gears of War, 1 million, Xbox360 511K

Yeah, the FF13 announcement will just screws sony's just gained momentum.

How the hell can you call that 3.3 mill fake?

Anyways, Sony was supposed to do these numbers in June.

1. MGS4 launch
2. Bundle with 80GB and BC
3. Wallmart $100 off deal

The PS3 had everything going for it last month.

 

[Carl B]

Note again that the Wal-Mart PS3 sales wouldn't be reflected in the NPDs, so hardware sales were likely higher. I know I myself bought one under that deal as a wedding present to someone.

 

[AlNom]

Fair enough. I still think you are setting the bar way, way too high to deep these sales as poor.

I thought it was respectable given genre and time of the year.

 

[patsu]

Note again that the Wal-Mart PS3 sales wouldn't be reflected in the NPDs, so hardware sales were likely higher. I know I myself bought one under that deal as a wedding present to someone.

Don't you hate them for always messing up the numbers ?

 

[iceberg187]

Note again that the Wal-Mart PS3 sales wouldn't be reflected in the NPDs, so hardware sales were likely higher. I know I myself bought one under that deal as a wedding present to someone.

Target did the same thing though as well did a few other retailers and they extrapolate Wal-Mart

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Nice software numbers all around, excellent hardware numbers for both Nintendo and Sony, but what happened to MS?

I wonder how long will it take certain people to admit that Sony has indeed gained momentum and is now leading MS on the hardware front for all of 2008.

 

[Carl B]

Target did the same thing though as well did a few other retailers and they extrapolate Wal-Mart

I'm not aware of Target doing it, not that I doubt you, but whatever the case I would be very surprised if NPD extrapolated the effects of a promotional event on the sales of a store they don't cover. Normally what they would do for Wal-Mart is to add to the NPD figures a scaled percentage of what their market share in the space is, and I would imagine that that's what they did here as well. For NPD to take a stab at how many extra PS3's Wal-Mart sold based on the $100 offer though would be going too far on their end in taking liberties with their data approximations.

 

[NavNucST3]

I'm not aware of Target doing it, not that I doubt you, but whatever the case I would be very surprised if NPD extrapolated the effects of a promotional event on the sales of a store they don't cover. Normally what they would do for Wal-Mart is to add to the NPD figures a scaled percentage of what their market share in the space is, and I would imagine that that's what they did here as well. For NPD to take a stab at how many extra PS3's Wal-Mart sold based on the $100 offer though would be going too far on their end in taking liberties with their data approximations.

Do you know how they get their Wal-Mart approximations? People around here make it sound like they just make some random guess.

 

[deepbrown]

Dang I was wrong in my predictions. Underestimated both the PS3 and Wii by loads of units.

 

[ShaidarHaran]

Do you know how they get their Wal-Mart approximations? People around here make it sound like they just make some random guess.

I've seen it mentioned they simply take a sampling of the stores by calling them directly and speaking to a manager.

 

[DrJay24]

24 days.

It came out June 12th I think.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Note again that the Wal-Mart PS3 sales wouldn't be reflected in the NPDs, so hardware sales were likely higher. I know I myself bought one under that deal as a wedding present to someone.

Yes they are. If NPD is even just slightly competent at their job, the estimates should include everything. NPD numbers are just sales data based on tracking data and statistical prediction techniques (read: regression) right? The numbers are supposed to reflect the total market (thus why tracking + statistical prediction) sales in the US region.

If so then walmart has a 100$ deal on the PS3 or whatever, it should be included in their estimate.

 

[iceberg187]

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB110927083639363282-52O4bLU_gxscXfqRiKjp_lvpm4s_20071216.html

But there are significant problems at both ends of the retail spectrum. Some very small stores like neighborhood grocery shops don't use scanners, and are too small to be NPD clients. And at the opposite end of the spectrum, retail giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. -- the nation's biggest seller of goods, accounting for more than 8% of all nonautomobile sales, and a leader in many categories -- no longer cooperates with market-research companies, having apparently decided the benefits aren't worth sharing some sales data with competitors. NPD says Wal-Mart stopped sharing its data in 2001; Wal-Mart didn't respond to my request for comment. And in specific industries, some major retailers also don't give NPD their sales information. (See table)

To fill in the blanks, NPD turns to its panel of consumers -- with 600,000 active participants -- and asks subsets each week what they've purchased. Then it adjusts the numbers in two important ways: weighting for underrepresentation of certain demographic groups, and comparing actual sales at cooperating retailers with those extrapolated from their panel.

I was mistaken about Target and $100 off

This was their deal
Playstation 3 40GB with $50 gift card and 2 Blu-ray movies

 

[Barbarian]

Does anyone have access to NPD's top 20+ software chart?

 

[PARANOiA]

Note again that the Wal-Mart PS3 sales wouldn't be reflected in the NPDs, so hardware sales were likely higher. I know I myself bought one under that deal as a wedding present to someone.

Carl, I would be honoured if you would attend my wedding.

 

[kopio0]

Fake? If NPD is making up numbers why are you even reading this thread?

Ok, I mean looks exaggerated compared to other big titles.

huh?

I'm still feeling gloomy for sony since the FF13 multiplatform news...

 

[Carl B]

If walmart has a 100$ deal on the PS3 or whatever, it should be included in their estimate.

And maybe it is, but it's a mystery to me what sort of methodology would be used to do so. Heck, does NPD even follow extraordinary events? Their model certainly doesn't require it.

Anyway I could very well be wrong, but I'm going to maintain that NPD likely estimated Wal-Mart's contributions by the same scale they do every month, rather than giving them outsized consideration w/regard to the $100 promotion.

Either way it doesn't matter; Sony reports their quarter numbers shortly, which include June, and I have little doubt they'll touch on the subject. So the speculation of today will be readily clarified by the facts of tomorrow. (Figuratively, they report the 29th)

I was mistaken about Target and $100 off

This was their deal
Playstation 3 40GB with $50 gift card and 2 Blu-ray movies

Yeah, that one I recall. To be certain, the Wal-Mart one generated a lot more interest, as evidenced by the reactions/weightings on the message boards of the Internet.

EDIT: Well, thanks to Iceberg's NPD clipping, the methodology on how they might account for the $100 is no longer a mystery; it's just a matter now then of whether that sub-trend would have been caught in their net.

 

[NavNucST3]

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB110927083639363282-52O4bLU_gxscXfqRiKjp_lvpm4s_20071216.html



I was mistaken about Target and $100 off

This was their deal
Playstation 3 40GB with $50 gift card and 2 Blu-ray movies

...and here I was going to say a consumer panel of 20k+...I would have been off by just a little...

It always amazes me that we always took the numbers as accurate, if NPD said SH sold 100K then that is what we went by... somehow that isnt good enough for fora...amazing.

 

[NavNucST3]

And maybe it is, but it's a mystery to me what sort of methodology would be used to do so. Heck, does NPD even follow extraordinary events? Their model certainly doesn't require it.

Anyway I could very well be wrong, but I'm going to maintain that NPD likely estimated Wal-Mart's contributions by the same scale they do every month, rather than giving them outsized consideration w/regard to the $100 promotion.

Either way it doesn't matter; Sony reports their quarter numbers shortly, which include June, and I have little doubt they'll touch on the subject. So the speculation of today will be readily clarified by the facts of tomorrow. (Figuratively, they report the 29th)

If more members of their panel bought PS3s during that deal it should be accounted for. but really, is Wal-Mart known for moving thousands and thousands of $400+ items?