NPD January 2008

[silhouette]

I hate to be a dick to all the Sony fans but let me put this in perspective..with a 5.8 million USA lead in install base, if PS3 were to win by 200,000 a month for the next 29 months to pull even. Which puts us in June 2010. I'm sure +200k a month can be agreed as a nearly impossible number anyway, because 360 isn't going to sit still, not drop any prices and not come out with anymore highly anticipated games. Even SonyCowboy at GAF said 360 likely could have sold 300k this month without shortages. Which is really positive because it's hugely above last January weekly rates.

I think Sony has a good chance to win Feb too based on MS statements, and what I'm seeing supply wise the last two weeks which seemed worse than January. March the battle should be back on I guess if MS is too be believed.

As for the speculation about what is behind the scenes with 360 shortage here, it's hugely interesting. I've long believe a price drop is coming as soon as GDC. But I dont really have any evidence of that and it seemed it would have leaked by now. Surfer girl (game rumor blog) has claimed at least one 360 sku will get integrated wireless in 2008. That could be something at play here, or not. One thing I noticed was BestBuy.com stock is now no longer the holiday Forza/Marvel bundles, it's back to normal plain premium's. So..I dunno.

Sony may also get an extra boost on February from the ppl who were rushed to snag a 80 Gig model which is believed to be the last model that supports backward compatibility. It is selling very well at Amazon and it is already kind of sold out in many of the retailers.

Btw, is there a longer list for software? (like first 20-50). I wonder how Mass Effect and Uncharted did last month.

 

[Platon]

Why would they need to outsell by 200,000 every month? Surely selling 1million more in a Holiday period would do it. What about last years sales? The Xbox 360 was at 10.5million at beginning of 2007....they are now at 17million. The PS3 is at nearly 10million I believe.

So did the 360 sell 1-2million less in 2007 than 2006 even though it had its biggest hits ever with Bioshock, Halo3 and Mass Effect? Hasn't the PS3 already made up a lot of ground, even though it's apparently not selling very well and is too expensive?

I think it has been said quite a few times that the first number (10.5 million) was not the number of consoles sold to consumers but to retailers and it is also known that MS had overstuffed every possible channel to reach that nice 10 million in a year milestone. When looking at sold numbers to consumers I belive they actually did better the second year than the first and it is evident that this time around they have not stuffed every retailer possible but on the contrary they seem to be a bit of shortages right now...

 

[deepbrown]

I think it has been said quite a few times that the first number (10.5 million) was not the number of consoles sold to consumers but to retailers and it is also known that MS had overstuffed every possible channel to reach that nice 10 million in a year milestone. When looking at sold numbers to consumers I belive they actually did better the second year than the first and it is evident that this time around they have not stuffed every retailer possible but on the contrary they seem to be a bit of shortages right now...

Well I did preempt that, which is why I said sold 1-2million less instead of 3million less.

I can definitely see these shortages being deliberate...get rid of some consoles to make way for a new one. A GTA4 console.

 

[patsu]

It's funny because when the news about warner came out there where a lot of people jumping around telling that blu ray won't/doesn't have an impact. Sometimes it is hard to follow.

Heh, it will also depends on Sony's corporate objective: profitability or marketshare.

 

[function]

The percentage of sales per install base for COD4 on each console is at approximately 23% on PS3 and 27% on Xbox 360.

My goodness, and that's even with Halo 3 selling astronomical numbers in close proximity. 360 owners just can't get enough FPS action, can they?

 

[D3B]

Why would they need to outsell by 200,000 every month? Surely selling 1million more in a Holiday period would do it. What about last years sales? The Xbox 360 was at 10.5million at beginning of 2007....they are now at 17million. The PS3 is at nearly 10million I believe.

So did the 360 sell 1-2million less in 2007 than 2006 even though it had its biggest hits ever with Bioshock, Halo3 and Mass Effect? Hasn't the PS3 already made up a lot of ground, even though it's apparently not selling very well and is too expensive?

Both shipped numbers.
PS3 was at 10.49 and 360 at 17.7 million at the end of December.

 

[Tap In]

....Surely selling 1million more in a Holiday period would do it. ...

well there is your first mistake.

we have no evidence whatsoever that will ever happen (at least in NA which is what this thread is discussing)

they outsold 360 by 39,000 ONE time while 360 was in a shortage and 360 outsold PS3 this past holiday (Nov Dec) by 763,000 units.

 

[....]

360 outsold PS3 by 463,000 in Dec alone... PS3 outsold 360 by only 39,000 units ONE time since they launched in 15 months and now you extrapolate that they will "close the gap" by 2009? :smile:​

oh and this NA only which is what I assume you are referring to since this is an NPD thread.​

I'm talking worlwide, I'd assume my talks of around half a million to one million in two months would hint at that. Between US and JAPAN assuming both january and february go to sony(microsoft has said shortages will continue, so it hints at it being likely), there's nearly half a million, then we have to take the europe advantage.

If somehow, it is unlikely I know, but if somehow these shortages extend to april it will be a catastrophe for microsoft

 

[deepbrown]

well there is your first mistake.

we have no evidence whatsoever that will ever happen (at least in NA which is what this thread is discussing)

they outsold 360 by 39,000 ONE time while 360 was in a shortage and 360 outsold PS3 this past holiday (Nov Dec) by 763,000 units.

Oh of course. I was just presenting another possibility than selling 200,000 more consistently every month. And when I said 1million I did mean worldwide.

 

[function]

If somehow, it is unlikely I know, but if somehow these shortages extend to april it will be a catastrophe for microsoft

One year they stuff the channel with enough units to last for the next six months, the next year they're running short by the following January. Poor MS, they just can't get it right.

 

[Tap In]

One year they stuff the channel with enough units to last for the next six months, the next year they're running short by the following January. Poor MS, they just can't get it right.

they need to tighten up the skus IMO

they have a ridiculous number of options now and while I champion having options, they are confusing the matter

 

[scooby_dooby]

This guy is usually surprisingly accurate in his guesses (which he always backs up with pretty solid reasoning and research). His take is that the 360 'shortage' is intentional, either to clear inventory of potentially defective units - or to make way for new models / pricing. Both are quite logical at the point. I'd guess we will hear more soon (say, GDC).

The logic is simply that if MS didn't plan for a ~25% increase in sales over last years holidays, then what on earth were they thinking. A logical answer is that this shortage is planned - or something has gone badly wrong.

I see this month as a bad sign for nintendo. Their monthly lead has shrunk dramatically.

A level playing field is the best for the industry. Although Microsoft and Nintendo are going to need to kick it up a notch to stay competitive in the public eye.

That's certainly my take.

It seems MS is having trouble manufacturing they're new 65nm units, and wants to limit the sales of the original failure-prone units.

My quess is that they are limiting supply of the old units as much as they think is reasonable, and are preparing for a large pricedrop this spring where they will roll out the new models en masse.

The strategy could be pretty effective. They will increase the pent up demand over these months, so by combining a pricedrop with a surge in units available, they could see some great sales over spring/summer 08.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm talking worlwide, I'd assume my talks of around half a million to one million in two months would hint at that. Between US and JAPAN assuming both january and february go to sony...

Japan's weekly sales show PS3 dropping considerably. And DS for that matter, like in the US. The take home points are 1) One month in the lead doesn't amount to much, especially when previous months have been very much in the other console's favour, and 2) As is often pointed out, to catch up with XB360 needs a big difference month after month for a while, which the Japanese figures show can fluctuate a lot.

Though TBH I just don't get the fascination with this whole race thing and these sales threads. The good news here for PS3 owners isn't that their console of choice might win the race in the long term, but that they'll have enough of a platform to be targeted so they get the games which, along with the exclusives, means it was a worthwhile investment. And the god news for XB360 owners is that they've already got a robust market. So all in all its good news all round. Why the fascination with classing people/products/companies into winners and losers? C'est la vie.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Though TBH I just don't get the fascination with this whole race thing and these sales threads.

Past arguments and predictions obviously Everyone wants to be 'right'.

 

[Vic]

That's certainly my take.

It seems MS is having trouble manufacturing they're new 65nm units, and wants to limit the sales of the original failure-prone units.

My quess is that they are limiting supply of the old units as much as they think is reasonable, and are preparing for a large pricedrop this spring where they will roll out the new models en masse.

The strategy could be pretty effective. They will increase the pent up demand over these months, so by combining a pricedrop with a surge in units available, they could see some great sales over spring/summer 08.

Unless of course, those gamers have gone out and bought a Wii or PS3.

And what happens when Smash Bros/Mario Kart/ MGS 4/GT Prologue are released? GTA 4 is known as a 'Playstation' game so it might not be enough for them. The next few months should be interesting.

 

[valioso]

they need to tighten up the skus IMO

they have a ridiculous number of options now and while I champion having options, they are confusing the matter

I agree, they should drop the core, the elite and the halo one, drop the premium or pro to $299 and drop the price of the bigger hard drive for people that want it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Unless of course, those gamers have gone out and bought a Wii or PS3.

And what happens when Smash Bros/Mario Kart/ MGS 4/GT Prologue are released? GTA 4 is known as a 'Playstation' game so it might not be enough for them. The next few months should be interesting.

Well the Wii is supply limited as well. And PS3 may pickup 100-150,000 'extra' sales in these two months, but nothing too crazy.

It'll be interesting to see how GTA does, but i think it's a given that it will sell best on 360 as all other cross platform titles have done.

The interesting part will be to watch the Hardware sales and see who gets the biggest bumps. If MS does drop price, then that will probably set the table for them to see a much larger boost than PS3. But I could be wrong...

I think the next few months are fairly predictable really, Sony and MS will be very close for Feb, PS3 will probably sell a little more, then they will be about equal until MS intriduces their pricedrop, at which point they will see a big surge. The only question is how long that surge lasts, and the extent that GTA 4 will increase it.

Good numbers for PS3, but I can't say I'm surprised. I knew the system would sell strongly once it reached $399. The problem wasn't lack of games, it was the price.

 

[....]

Japan's weekly sales show PS3 dropping considerably. And DS for that matter, like in the US. The take home points are 1) One month in the lead doesn't amount to much, especially when previous months have been very much in the other console's favour, and 2) As is often pointed out, to catch up with XB360 needs a big difference month after month for a while, which the Japanese figures show can fluctuate a lot.

We have january and very likely february, two months. Europe and Japan have ps3 over 360 by a significant margin in both territories.

Depending on when in march the shortage ends that month could go in ps3 favor too. If the shortage extends to april, the gta month, it will be catastrophic for microsoft in the US.

Also walmart's going blu-ray exclusive, the HD WAR IS OVER, any moment now the HD-DVD camp will capitulate and that's going to give a permanent boost to ps3 sales.

 

[Zassk]

So did the 360 sell 1-2million less in 2007 than 2006 even though it had its biggest hits ever with Bioshock, Halo3 and Mass Effect? Hasn't the PS3 already made up a lot of ground, even though it's apparently not selling very well and is too expensive?

No. The 360 shipped more in 2006, but it sold more in 2007. This is evident when you look at the per-quarter shipments:

Period		2005    2006    2007
Jan-Mar Q1              1.7     0.5
Apr-Jun Q2              1.8     0.7
Jul-Sep Q3              0.9     1.8
Oct-Dec Q4      1.5     4.5     4.3
Total           1.5     8.9     7.3

Clearly, a significant portion of those 4.5M from Q406 were sold in 2007.

If you align the two launches, the PS3 has improved considerably since last May, but it hasn't really made up any ground on the 360 yet.

 

[Zassk]

One year they stuff the channel with enough units to last for the next six months, the next year they're running short by the following January. Poor MS, they just can't get it right.

It seems likely that a lot of the consoles stuffed into the channel in late 2006 were RROD fodder and led directly to the warranty charge last summer. I wonder if this is related to MS letting go of 2 of their original 3 production contracts for the 360. Perhaps one or more of the facilities were systematically producing faulty consoles.