form factor + proprietary OS controlled with a gamepad could make it more attractive to console players than a classic PC.
PS4 Longevity
- Thread starter Shortbread
- Start date
form factor + proprietary OS controlled with a gamepad could make it more attractive to console players than a classic PC.
I don't really see a proprietary OS being beneficial. If anything I'd expect PS4 to have a variant of Android or Linux on it. They'd probably have a custom interface, but being able to run Android apps or Linux apps could be a nice benefit, and Vulkan should offer good performance.
D
Deleted member 11852
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Friday night posts are the best
They should just use windows and Vulkan as an API then everybody outside of Nintendo can live happily ever after on the PC.
Inuhanyou
Veteran
Absolutely ridiculous. PS4 will be a success if it gets past PS1's tracked numbers. PS2 is just a shot in the dark for any console. PS2 had a mix things that will surely never be replicated by anyone in the console space ever again. What really elevated it past the point of no return was the low cost at te end of the gen in combination of selling to third world countries past its official prime that brought up its numbers so high.
I don't think 100 mill is unfeasible for PS4, it'll surely sell much more than PS3 did(i'm guessing 105 million when all is said and done), but bringing up PS2 is a nonsensical thing.
All in all, the Playstation family has nothing but a run of successes in terms of pure sales(outside off Vita and PSP Go, but we don't talk about PSP go)
I don't think 100 mill is unfeasible for PS4, it'll surely sell much more than PS3 did(i'm guessing 105 million when all is said and done), but bringing up PS2 is a nonsensical thing.
All in all, the Playstation family has nothing but a run of successes in terms of pure sales(outside off Vita and PSP Go, but we don't talk about PSP go)
I am astonished by the number of people who voted "yes"
I voted yes, but I do think it unlikely. But it's definitely possible. Super duper strong sales right now, no price cut yet, still early in the lifespan, economy is better, and population growth. PS5 can come out and if Sony is able to drop PS4 price low enough it could still sell a boatload. I'm positive it will outsell PS1 at this point unless osme major catastrophe happens.
Voted yes. PS4 lifecycle could be quite long. It's not like the next gen consoles will be coming out in near future or become cheap fast. New manufacturing processes are more expensive than ever before. It also takes more and more time for new manufacturing processes to be introduced. Is this now third year we still have highend gpu's on 28nm? There also is possibility to leverage technologies like HBM to make ps4 really small and affordable in future.
It wouldn't be infeasible to see a 199 and 99$ ps4 selling at the side of new 399,299$ ps5 for a very long time. PS4 is also vastly more useful and future compatible than ps2 ever was. There also is possibility to sell ps4 to "emerging" markets ps2 never properly got into. Let's see if china, africa, india etc. will get into console band wagon during the next 10 years.
It wouldn't be infeasible to see a 199 and 99$ ps4 selling at the side of new 399,299$ ps5 for a very long time. PS4 is also vastly more useful and future compatible than ps2 ever was. There also is possibility to sell ps4 to "emerging" markets ps2 never properly got into. Let's see if china, africa, india etc. will get into console band wagon during the next 10 years.
Could it? Sure. So I had to answer yes.
Will it? Very improbable.
Will this gen be shorter than 6 years? Very improbable.
155 millions would take:
- A continued downfall from Nintendo
- MS fails to come out with a VR product, or another online-drm-style blunder.
- An underpowered MS xbox 1.5 by coming out too early, failing the next gen transition
It took 8 years to come out with ps4/xb1, because they went too far in the previous gen BOM. This time there's a different problem. It will be a much more difficult step to get graphics that are significantly improved in the eyes of gamers. 10 times more will feel like a half-gen. 10 times a PS4 would be barely a pair of 780ti, which is nowhere near the difference between a PS2 and a PS3 in subjective improvement for gamers.
Wildcard is if they go batshit crazy on the BOM again, but I think those days are over.
Will it? Very improbable.
Will this gen be shorter than 6 years? Very improbable.
155 millions would take:
- A continued downfall from Nintendo
- MS fails to come out with a VR product, or another online-drm-style blunder.
- An underpowered MS xbox 1.5 by coming out too early, failing the next gen transition
It took 8 years to come out with ps4/xb1, because they went too far in the previous gen BOM. This time there's a different problem. It will be a much more difficult step to get graphics that are significantly improved in the eyes of gamers. 10 times more will feel like a half-gen. 10 times a PS4 would be barely a pair of 780ti, which is nowhere near the difference between a PS2 and a PS3 in subjective improvement for gamers.
Wildcard is if they go batshit crazy on the BOM again, but I think those days are over.
D
Deleted member 11852
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They don't have to go buts but they could up the APU budget. When PS4 launched IHS estimated the APU cost about $100, what could the have got for $125? I guess Microsoft are lucky they didn't.
I don't know, $25 might give only 15% more area, if it causes an additional cost of $5 for the lower yield, and $5 for additional cooling and power supply. Considering the small perceived difference that 40% more GPU provides on the PS4, 15% isn't really pushing the enveloppe like the Cell did for PS3 in terms of CPU power, or the 360 GPU did for their time... They were also 250 watts beasts.
BTW I suck at math, 10 times the PS4 gpu would be like 4x 780ti, not so bad I guess? But even so, when do we get an 18TF gpu with 64GB HBM2 2TB/s as a midrange PC card? Certainly not 2018. This is a question for the next gen prediction thread. Sorry if I'm going a bit off topic.
Inuhanyou
Veteran
I made a prediction on GAF and i'll put it here. I just think AMD's advances throw an interesting variable for console HW in the new gen to gain notable upgrades.
For the PS5 i'm guessing a Zen 8 core CPU that's on par with a modern day high level i5
A 12(2GB for OS) to 16GB HBM(4GB for OS)configuration at 640GB/s
An 8.2 TFLOP AMD GPU
399$, holiday 2019.
Are my predictions too high? I wonder how everything will turn out, if there will even be console HW, or PC hardware in 2019, or will everyone be streaming games remotely from server farms
For the PS5 i'm guessing a Zen 8 core CPU that's on par with a modern day high level i5
A 12(2GB for OS) to 16GB HBM(4GB for OS)configuration at 640GB/s
An 8.2 TFLOP AMD GPU
399$, holiday 2019.
Are my predictions too high? I wonder how everything will turn out, if there will even be console HW, or PC hardware in 2019, or will everyone be streaming games remotely from server farms
Yeah I'm hoping PS5 comes out as soon as 2019 or better, 2018.
But that would only be 5 full years from Nov 2013 to Nov 2018 and if it's still making money for Sony, they won't be in a hurry.
Wiki says Mark Cerny said development started as early as 2008. So if they're looking at it 5 years before release, they should start looking at the successor now, just 1.5 years after PS4 release.
But that would only be 5 full years from Nov 2013 to Nov 2018 and if it's still making money for Sony, they won't be in a hurry.
Wiki says Mark Cerny said development started as early as 2008. So if they're looking at it 5 years before release, they should start looking at the successor now, just 1.5 years after PS4 release.
Rikimaru
Veteran
Though now they have a very good foundation with PS4.
By 2019 I would want more power, a gaming PC in 2019 is going to be pretty insane as that tflop level is 2016 (and maybe at good prices).
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