PS4 Longevity
- Thread starter Shortbread
- Start date
It makes sense, one of the reason PS fans still buy the playstation console is that they have been incredibly consistent with support for over 20 years.
I don't understand why anyone thinks the PS5 could be in 2017 in the prediction thread, or that PS4 would get anything less than 10 years of software/services.
PS1 launch in 1994, 10 years of software sales
PS2 launch in 2000, 6 years later, 10 years of software sales
PS3 launch in 2006, 6 years later, will easily reach 10 years of software/services
PS4 launch in 2013, 7 years later, can't we can expect 10 years of software/services?
PS5? maybe 2020? 7 years later? 10 years support?
(+/- 1 year because of the delayed launches in some parts of the world)
I don't understand why anyone thinks the PS5 could be in 2017 in the prediction thread, or that PS4 would get anything less than 10 years of software/services.
PS1 launch in 1994, 10 years of software sales
PS2 launch in 2000, 6 years later, 10 years of software sales
PS3 launch in 2006, 6 years later, will easily reach 10 years of software/services
PS4 launch in 2013, 7 years later, can't we can expect 10 years of software/services?
PS5? maybe 2020? 7 years later? 10 years support?
(+/- 1 year because of the delayed launches in some parts of the world)
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
Oh man, 2020 sounds so far away. 
There's never been less than six years between PlayStation consoles and I expect no different this generation. Oh man, 2019 sounds so far away.
There's never been less than six years between PlayStation consoles and I expect no different this generation. Oh man, 2019 sounds so far away. 
Rikimaru
Veteran
Sony stopped making PS2 in 2014 afaik. Last game was FIFA14. PSOne in 2006.
I think this gen will be shorter, you only have to compare the relative power compared to PC - whilst PS2 & PS3 enjoyed 6 & 7 years without a successor, both outperformed a top PC and were sold a a big loss. PS4 launched at a 'reasonably high spec PC' performance and small loss. As such I wouldn't be surprised at 2018 but I would definitely say 2019 for PS5 for a similar upgrade/price as we've had this time...i.e. 'better value more frequently'.
Doesn't mean the PS4 won't have longevity though, I would imagine another 10+ year console is a given...historically Sony have supported their home consoles well.
Doesn't mean the PS4 won't have longevity though, I would imagine another 10+ year console is a given...historically Sony have supported their home consoles well.
Both by x86 twins could have a long life . If they go with a superset of the same x86 chip and amd gpu it shouldn't be much work to simply lower the resolution and quality settings to get a ps4 or xbox one port.
I just think the wind would get cut from the sales pretty quick when new consoles hit. HBM 2 will be a game changer
Prophecy2k
Veteran
If VR on PS4 is a hit, surely then that means that console gamers are happy wtih the current performance as is? Or at least in the short to medium term.
If Morpheus comes out and flops due to people getting motion sickness and having siezures in droves, and yet Occulus/ValveVR both launch and take the PC world by storm, then I would be able to see Sony wanting to expidite getting the PS5 out the door to drive console VR adoption.
My feeling is that Morpheus will be an excellent starting point for VR in the living room, and will extend the generation for quite some time (into 2020, perhaps 2021).
FarticusMaximus
Newcomer
Less I would say.
Big difference is that Kinect is actually a useful peripheral outside of the limited range of games designed specifically for it. I couldn't imagine not having one to control my home entertainment toys via IR, or to Skype my friends and family.
Yea but its a snap shot in time of a first generation vr unit. your going to have a 2013 console oowering a 2016 head set
in the pc side we are going to have 10tflop cards this year. for many they will be running multiple gpus. 2016 the micron drop happens and peformance will leap foward again.
I wouldnt find it out of the realm for a 2017 or 18 console to launch with 20tflops of gpu performance plus drasticly improved cpu performance. Even going from 8 jaguar cores to 8 zen cores will be a huge improvement. Hbm 2 will allow for lots of fast ram also
Lets also not forget the jump wed see in the headset
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MultichipHow are they going to pull off 20TF from 14nm in 2017, if they could barely do 1.2TF (or 1.8TF) with 28nm?
Or to be less snarky the same way amd released a 3.7tflop gpu with the 79x0 series and is now set to release a 9tflop one on the same process
You can't compare huge die areas, crazy TDP, and niche binning GPUs with consoles SoC. Otherwise the PS4/XB1 would be similar to a 5TF 780ti that came out in Nov 2013. (or a pair of 760 or whatever)
If high end GPUs are 20TF in 2017, you'll get a 6TF console SoC.
If high end GPUs are 20TF in 2017, you'll get a 6TF console SoC.
The xbox 360 was comparable to the x1800. so your example dossnt always hold true. It really depends on the design goals a company sets for the console
Things ebb and flow. This generation they both went with lower powered apu's but that doesn't mean next gen they have to do the same
Depends on what they want to do. I can easily see a 8 core zen with 16 threads at 3.2ghz being viable perhaps even more physical cores. 32GB of ram should be possible depending on the pricing of HBM 2 or if they want to multiple buses. I also think they would be able to put in a very powerful gpu design approaching 20TFlops.
Have we talked about the BOM of Morpheus. What is in it that they can cost reduce. I'm going to assume the actual plastic housing is a fixed cost that wont really budge much. Is there room for the 1080p 120hz screen to drop in price ? The refresh rate makes me think it wont find use outside of Morpheus . What about the chip they are using for the frame interposer ?
Prophecy2k
Veteran
The users of the GPUs and cards you are talking about are gonna be very very few in number, until well beyond 2019-2021 when Sony will be naturally looking to refresh their console cycle anyway. Just because a 10Tflop GPU exists, doesn't mean that any meaningful majority of gamers (read: sufficient in number to warrant game devement targeting their kit) will own one.
VR being only a single person experience, enclosed in it's own headset, is such that whatever extra bells and whilstles these 10Tflop GPU card rocking PC gaming niches are enjoying, the majority of mainstream gamers on consoles will be entirely oblivious to.
Additionally, given the current state of high end game development, with practically all titles being made with asset quality levels tailored to the largest market (i.e. consoles), there's little reason to believe that AAA VR game market will be any different. In which case it doesn't matter what new flavour of hextuple-SLI Giga-Terraflop Titan X(treme) GPU a small cross section of PC gamers will be sporting, as most VR games will continue to target the most common and lowest common denominator, i.e. consoles, mobile and low end PC HW.
If anything, mobile-based VR (ala GearVR) is far more likely to be the most dominant VR platform for the majority of people. It will almost certainly end up being the most lucrative for big game publishers; who can regularly shit out micro-transaction-riddled shovelware for maximum profits. In that light Morpheus on PS4 is gonna seem like a generational leap already to gamers who have come from mobile VR. VR on PC on the highest end HW is not really going to be relevant to the mainstream adoption of VR at all.
I really think that the business and economic realities get missed far too often in these discussions.
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