Some rumors have been debunked, I think some insiders must re-check their sources.
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Some rumors have been debunked, I think some insiders must re-check their sources.
Bagel seed
Veteran
If they can produce at 1 mill per month that would be decent I guess. 3.5m or bust 
With the way MS has handled PR lately would 1.1 x 1.000.000 still be telling the truth? Yep, i am a bit cynical.
Still looking forward to a EU release, which i have this sneaking suspicion will come when we see how the XB1 sells in the US :-/
Sorry, i meant my part of EU of course.
Hunh? I watched it all unfold. When every media outlet, both television and prin, is trumpeting/parroting how outrageous and anti-consumer the xbox one will be...that leads to low pre-orders. Almost no one read the retractions or the lamentations of what was good about MS' plans.
The 180 was to stop the bleeding from the forum warriors and the media... not the consumers.
Im not naive in the least about that sir.
As much as people like to hate Michael Pachter from a consumer point of view, he does know pretty well how the "business" side works. He does know that one production line produces roughly 400k units a month, and that number is the same for all consoles, and upping the production/downing the production is going to be in increments of ~400k units. (you don't open up multiple production lines for the launch just for it to be scrapped in a few months).
Major Nelson's picture was supposed to be a shot in the arm regarding production.
But in business reality, it's not. It's a big sign that Microsoft had serious production issues, considering it's only NOW that he took this picture.
If the first case just rolled off the assembly line within these few days, they will have roughly 2.5 months to prepare for the launch. Counting in the 1 month it requires to ship from China to EU/USA (I just checked and HK=>LA takes roughly 27 days), they will have 1.5 months of Xbox One supply for the launch.
A figure of around 600k units is what everybody can expect for Microsoft at Launch. They had 1.5 months to build up stock.
On the other hand, PS4 reportedly was already in full production.
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...n-ps4-is-in-production-right-now-as-we-speak/
We know PS4 took ~1 million pre-orders, and it is pretty clear that Sony has quite a bit of confidence to fulfill their preorders.
using the later date of November 30 or so to start the 1 million pre-order count, Sony probably had ~2.5 months production + 1 month of shipping to fulfill the launch.
That probably means Sony probably started production at the very least 3.5 months before the November 30, pointing at a date at the very latest mid august.
Major Nelson's picture was supposed to be a shot in the arm regarding production.
But in business reality, it's not. It's a big sign that Microsoft had serious production issues, considering it's only NOW that he took this picture.
If the first case just rolled off the assembly line within these few days, they will have roughly 2.5 months to prepare for the launch. Counting in the 1 month it requires to ship from China to EU/USA (I just checked and HK=>LA takes roughly 27 days), they will have 1.5 months of Xbox One supply for the launch.
A figure of around 600k units is what everybody can expect for Microsoft at Launch. They had 1.5 months to build up stock.
On the other hand, PS4 reportedly was already in full production.
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...n-ps4-is-in-production-right-now-as-we-speak/
We know PS4 took ~1 million pre-orders, and it is pretty clear that Sony has quite a bit of confidence to fulfill their preorders.
using the later date of November 30 or so to start the 1 million pre-order count, Sony probably had ~2.5 months production + 1 month of shipping to fulfill the launch.
That probably means Sony probably started production at the very least 3.5 months before the November 30, pointing at a date at the very latest mid august.
Bagel seed
Veteran
I guess that 27 days shipping time by boat?
IIRC in the last launch, Sony resorted to air shipping quite a few units to get enough in stores in time.
I would figure that MS could get more than one production line going too. Only 400k / mo is pretty bad.
IIRC in the last launch, Sony resorted to air shipping quite a few units to get enough in stores in time.
I would figure that MS could get more than one production line going too. Only 400k / mo is pretty bad.
Initial shipments of our high end discrete GPU's tend to be air freighted at the initial launch, in order to expedite the deliveries and capture as much of the initial demand as possible, with shipping by container occurring when demand vs supply normalises somewhat. With both launch and the launch being done in the hot season I personally think they would both be wanting to expedite deliveries as much as possible.
yes, 27 days shipping time by boat. Air shipments are prohibitively expensive (especially after 2008) and is avoided at all costs.
Just did a simple air freight calculation based on the pallets to get an idea of how air freight is going to be.
The pallets apparently hold 3*3*3 boxes, each containing about 2 boxes each, resulting in 54 boxes per pallet.
One Xbox One box should weigh around 10 pounds.
54 consoles is ~600 lbs.
One pallet holds 54 consoles, each 500 USD, resulting in ~$27000 of merchandise.
Pallet size is approximately 40 inch 48 inch *60 inches
If you enter these information (I'm using UPS here), and select somewhere like Hong Kong as a starting point and LA as an end point,
The bill is a shocking 10000+ HKD freight bill. That 1300+ USD per 54 boxes probably at the very least 24 USD per box.
High end discrete GPUs have very different size+weight/dollar ratios when compared to consoles.
You're talking about boxes that are probably 1/4 the size of these boxes and probably the 1/4 the weight too. And they also cost ~ 500 USD
He's assuming that they both up to 2~3 production lines.
Then you'll have 1.5 million Xbox Ones at launch, and probably 2 million+ for PS4.
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Would there be noticeably different handling requirements for the console pallets versus graphics cards, or is this factored into the packaging?
There's a HDD and potentially other jangly bits versus an add-in board.
There's a HDD and potentially other jangly bits versus an add-in board.
Your GPUs are much smaller and cheaper to ship, no, with much better profit margins on your high-end parts. When console air-freighting has been mentioned before by console companies, it's also been with reference to high costs and reluctance. In the case of PS3, Sony had limited production capability, so to keep the retail chains populated they needed to speed up transport. If MS/Sony can manufacture a million a month, they can maintain a constant 250k per week on boats which'll be a decent supply for a large box item. I doubt anyone will take to air-freighting and losing considerable amounts on each unit given plenty of lead-time and high volume production
That's down to the designers/manufacturers to worry about. The shippers just dump pallets on ships, and the postmen throw the consoles around and dump heavy objects on 'em.
One production line wouldn't fullfill the total annual production of any of the three consoles over the last 7 years. What makes u think MS is depending on only one? mS estimates 6.2 million shipped by next June. That averages out to about 600K a month. And 2 lines would be needed to fulfill 10 million consoles over a years time.
And how does a statement made a week ago makes you think Sony started somewhere in July?
And if a manufacturer is shipping 100s of thousands of units by air, they r doing so at a price that u can't get from UPS.com.
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I stated mid August, not July. Who do you think they can air-freight? Somebody's got to run the air fleet and there are only so many carriers
, and air freight ain't cheap. Not to mention that there are other businesses that are also loading up the holiday seasons and rates are not likely going to get any cheaper.
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