Business ramifications of piracy *spawn

[obonicus]

So, what happens when anyone can just download and pirate? What happens when you don't have to get any console mod chips at all. Anything can be signed and run just by a download. That is 100 percent completely different than getting a mod chip.

Do you think getting a mod chip is difficult? I can buy PS2s with modchips preinstalled, and the shop owner will even give me a warranty on the system as a whole!

The two events not even related. The PS3 is the most unsecure device in recent history of consoles.

The Wii. It's been wide open for years and it pushes a lot of software. A lot of Nintendo software, but Nintendo software isn't unpiratable.

There's a crazy number of assumptions here:
Everyone who has a vulnerable console will modify it. This is not a given. Maybe we'll see bootlegs that ship with custom firmware -- that'd be the most damaging possibility, honestly, as it opens the possibility for people with unhacked consoles to simply buy a disc and have it run bootlegs. Anything short of that will limit piracy only to people who were actively seeking it out in the first place, and it's not clear how much money these people would spend on software otherwise.

 

[obonicus]

The Wii can also do fine if there was massive pirating. The console itself is sold at a fairly nice profit for Nintendo.

The issue isn't whether it provides a profit or not for Sony. Now that the PS3 isn't a lossleader, if there really is a boost of console sales they may even come out on top. The question that some of the doomsayers are bringing up is whether publishers will want to continue to support the console when the platform becomes a post-apocalyptic free-for-all. Given that picture, the Wii wouldn't be seeing continued support. It doesn't get the games we like, but that's because it serves a different demographic. Maybe piracy had some effect on it, but that's begging the question on several points.

The question itself is mostly laughable, though.

 

[Docwiz]

Do you think getting a mod chip is difficult? I can buy PS2s with modchips preinstalled, and the shop owner will even give me a warranty on the system as a whole!



The Wii.

There's a crazy number of assumptions here:
Everyone who has a vulnerable console will modify it. This is not a given. Maybe we'll see bootlegs that ship with custom firmware -- that'd be the most damaging possibility, honestly, as it opens the possibility for people with unhacked consoles to simply buy a disc and have it run bootlegs. Anything short of that will limit piracy only to people who were actively seeking it out in the first place, and it's not clear how much money these people would spend on software otherwise.

The points are these (I live in the USA and you can't buy a mod chipped PS2 retail)

#1) You have to buy a mod chip which Sony does not want you to have and you have to usually buy it from some overseas web site that you are not really going to trust.

#2) Sony can try to report who purchased the mod chip and since you bought that chip you are on the list. No matter if that was for home brew or whatever.

#3) You maybe able to install a mod chip, but most people can't. In fact most people can barely use a computer, let alone install anything.

#4) Downloading a game or a bootloader for free a lot more people can do, it's not rocket science nor is it hard, nor do you have to wait. It's so easy a caveman can do it.

 

[obonicus]

The points are these (I live in the USA and you can't buy a mod chipped PS2 retail)

You're seriously telling me that you can't pay for someone to install a modchip for you in the US? It's not as brazen as the gray market in other places, but I'm 100% sure you're incorrect. Will you tell me next that you can't buy R4-analogues for the DS in stores?

#2) Sony can try to report who purchased the mod chip and since you bought that chip you are on the list. No matter if that was for home brew or whatever.

What? And they'll do what, break your kneecaps? What sort of craziness is this? The same Sony that is absolutely powerless about stopping custom firmware is going to be arresting you for buying modchips?

#4) Downloading a game or a bootloader for free a lot more people can do, it's not rocket science nor is it hard, nor do you have to wait. It's so easy a caveman can do it.

Buying a modchip and having it installed isn't hard either! Easy hackability for the PS3 isn't going to cause a fundamental change to the population. If people are accustomed to buying games, they'll probably continue. If people are accustomed to piracy, they'll do that. The shift from the former to the latter is easier than the other way around, but you're not going to see the majority of the console's install base do that shift.

 

[ban25]

You're seriously telling me that you can't pay for someone to install a modchip for you in the US? It's not as brazen as the gray market in other places, but I'm 100% sure you're incorrect. Will you tell me next that you can't buy R4-analogues for the DS in stores?



What? And they'll do what, break your kneecaps? What sort of craziness is this? The same Sony that is absolutely powerless about stopping custom firmware is going to be arresting you for buying modchips?



Buying a modchip and having it installed isn't hard either! Easy hackability for the PS3 isn't going to cause a fundamental change to the population. If people are accustomed to buying games, they'll probably continue. If people are accustomed to piracy, they'll do that. The shift from the former to the latter is easier than the other way around, but you're not going to see the majority of the console's install base do that shift.

It's like comparing stealing cable in the '80s to Bittorrent today. It's night and day.

 

[aaronspink]

the psp2 getting delayed is no brainer. Sony has most of it's engineers on the ps3 situation right now. i would hate to be the folks at SCEJ especially the firmware team. The phone calls between Sony and IBM is going to be fascinating. Oh i wish i was the fly on the wall

why would the phone calls between Sony and IBM be fascinating? This isn't an architectural problem. The security architecture of the PS3 is fundamentally sound. The implementation is the issue.

 

[aaronspink]

If it puts a fledging blu-ray market at risk, with all the investment that has gone in to it, then it will lose its backing as a blu-ray player. And that removes part of the PS3's USP.

Pretty much anyone can copy any BR they want right now and last year, and the year before that. BR hasn't been secure forever.

 

[aaronspink]

I doubt they can circumvent a ban that easy. Ban by MAC address and that's the end of it unless even that's spoofable.

MAC address? Really? You think MAC addresses are something secure? The only point of a MAC address in enet really is to enable communication in the original design of enet which was basically just a big cloud of enet controllers. The only requirement with MAC addresses has only ever been that they are unique within the local network (ie all the enet connections connected to a hub). Once you go through an IP switch or NAT or router, MAC addresses are immaterial.

 

[aaronspink]

I would presume Sony knows the CPU keys of each ps3 they made. Since they're pretty large, you cannot really guess and try to spoof another one if your current key gets banned. Psn bans can be handled this way instead of useless MAC address ban.

you are making an assumption that each PS3 has a unique random ID. It is unlikely that this is true. Esp the random part.

 

[ban25]

Focusing on the business side of things, assuming Sony is unwilling to comprehensively resolve the issue through a recall, they will need to do something to reassure third party publishers and keep them on board. 20 years ago, EA famously extracted a sweetheart licensing deal from SEGA after reverse engineering the Genesis and preparing to ship their own unlicensed games. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony cuts the rates on their licensing terms, at least for major publishers. After all, it's not like they need Sony to sign their software anymore!

 

[Docwiz]

You're seriously telling me that you can't pay for someone to install a modchip for you in the US? It's not as brazen as the gray market in other places, but I'm 100% sure you're incorrect. Will you tell me next that you can't buy R4-analogues for the DS in stores?



What? And they'll do what, break your kneecaps? What sort of craziness is this? The same Sony that is absolutely powerless about stopping custom firmware is going to be arresting you for buying modchips?



Buying a modchip and having it installed isn't hard either! Easy hackability for the PS3 isn't going to cause a fundamental change to the population. If people are accustomed to buying games, they'll probably continue. If people are accustomed to piracy, they'll do that. The shift from the former to the latter is easier than the other way around, but you're not going to see the majority of the console's install base do that shift.

I don't know anywhere where I can buy a mod chipped PS2 or where I can have a mod chip installed in the USA. This is true. I would probably have to go to some underground place to get it done and I don't even know if I can find that.

The town that I live in California only has 15,000 people and I am not in LA or NYC anymore.

Remember that PSX emulator on the PC called Bleemcast, I was beta testing it and a lawyer came to my door because I was a beta tester at the time and tried to subpoena me.

I don't know where you live, but you can't just get mod chips installed at a 7-11 around here. I am sure if I could solder and was into electronics I could do it myself or if I knew someone that could do it.

 

[patsu]

Sony should also use their CRM to identify and reward paying customers. It would make them feel better instead of watching their friends play pirated games. ^_^

eCommerce of games should help to identify paying users too.

Afterall, the issue starts and ends with the people, not the tech.

 

[-tkf-]

Sony should also use their CRM to identify and reward paying customers. It would make them feel better instead of watching their friends play pirated games. ^_^

eCommerce of games should help to identify paying users too.

Afterall, the issue starts and ends with the people, not the tech.

Well, there is nothing stopping pirates from getting the same "rewards", it´s just a question of wheter you choose to pay or not..

 

[patsu]

You can't stop pirates without a proper security platform, but you can make your paying customers happy. Identifying them at the point-of-sales can help to know who bring in the dough for the company. It's an important business process. They should not focus solely on the pirates.

 

[nightshade]

Are you referring to PSN purchases ? if yes then what about the guys who don't buy anything from PSN and use it just for playing online ?

 

[patsu]

Doesn't have to be PSN only. There are many mechanisms for identifying paying customers in traditional retail stores too. But eCommerce is probably the most efficient mechanism.

I also remember on the PSP, the homebrew developers and hackers got nagged/abused by ungrateful people all the time to implement assorted features. Some left the scene because they got tired of the people who use their software. ^_^

I am not sure if we will have lots of long-term homebrew developers on PS3 yet, because of Cell's steep learning curve. There are also other popular, rewarding and easier platform to develop for (e.g., iOS). Would be interesting to watch how it pans out.

 

[baten]

This business model isn't realistic anyway. I sometimes only have time to play once every other week, other times I spend every free hour with one game only. Others have a gamerscore of several hundred thousand points. I also tend to buy a lot of games 3 to 6 months or even more after release, at lower prices, but sometimes I get something on its release day.

There is no single subscription model that would be fair to everyone. Either I'm going to have to partially finance gamerscore guy's fun, or the devs will end up getting the short end of the stick, and so on. Consider how a lot of people buy a game full price only to just complete the single player part once. Based on time spent on the game these devs would get a fraction of their current income.
It's also impossible to build different subscription models, even with a completely new hardware platform. Even Onlive, having the possibility, has decided to go for a pay per game approach.

This model would never work IMHO.

The sistem is as fair as the one currently in place. Me too, I have to have to pay 60 bucks for a game that is 5 hours, and I never go to play online, whereas others play months and months the same game online, for the same price.
With any sistem there will be people who feel they will be better off with another sistem.
Devs will get money if people play their games period. I dont see how this is unfair.

 

[eastmen]

That doesn't hold up, though. Ignoring other factors, people could run homebrew on the PS2, there was no way of preventing that. The modchip scene didn't destroy the PS2. Most people didn't have a modchip, even though they certainly were easy to get.

I don't see why every single PS3 out there will suddenly get modded. Not every Wii out there gets modded. I'm sure that even with the PSP, most of them aren't modded. Hell, even on the PC as a whole, I don't think most people playing games pirate them.

Its not fair to compare to the ps2. The ps2 required sodering chips to your system which could destroy your system. So you would have to either be decent at sodering or have a friend or go to a store to get it done.

This is much more like the dreamcast mod. Where you just ran other software through a cd . This time you will simply one time load the firmware. If its anything like a psp it will automaticly update you to the newest cfm just like the ps3 already upgrades you to the newest regular firmware.

It will be alot easier to do . You should see piracy on the DS . Its not just nerds in the basement or even hardcore gamers. I have my older cousins asking me if i could do it for thier kids ds. They will say oh one of the kids has a all the games on a single card. Where can i buy that. I have to explain to them what it really is.

The ps3 is going to be hurt by this , there is no way around it , it could be as big if not bigger than psp piracy . Heck with the psp you needed to modifiy a battery physicly with the ps3 it may be as easy as just sticking in a flash drive and running a program on it .

 

[obonicus]

It will be alot easier to do . You should see piracy on the DS . Its not just nerds in the basement or even hardcore gamers. I have my older cousins asking me if i could do it for thier kids ds. They will say oh one of the kids has a all the games on a single card. Where can i buy that. I have to explain to them what it really is.

And how hurt by piracy is the DS? It's got a ton of software support. Will the PS3 be hurt? Yes. Is it DOOOOOOOM like people are saying? No, of course not.

Joe Schmoe won't apply CFW on his own. He'll go to a store to do it, he'll pay to have it done. He'll risk his warranty the same way. Especially if Sony is smart and prevents the PS3 from reading anything but pressed BD-ROMs (which I think is already the case), preventing Joe Schmoe from buying a bootleg with the firmware already on it.

 

[eastmen]

And how hurt by piracy is the DS? It's got a ton of software support. Will the PS3 be hurt? Yes. Is it DOOOOOOOM like people are saying? No, of course not.

Joe Schmoe won't apply CFW on his own. He'll go to a store to do it, he'll pay to have it done. He'll risk his warranty the same way. Especially if Sony is smart and prevents the PS3 from reading anything but pressed BD-ROMs (which I think is already the case), preventing Joe Schmoe from buying a bootleg with the firmware already on it.

Devs complain about ds piracy all the time. Through sheer numbers of its installed base its able to make up for the lost sales. The ps3 doesn't have a ds size install base.

Joe Schmoe can easily apply cfw if all it takes is putting a usb stick in. They will certianly be more prone to do that than hardware mod a ps2