The "what is a successful game?"/"are exclusives worth it?" cost/benefit thread

I think you're completely missing my point. Consumers didn't buy more of Halo or MW2 because they LIKED them more than U2 or Killzone 2. They bought them because they knew about them, because everyone else was buying them, because there was a big ad campaign, because there was an hyped event in buying them.
I'll chime in my support for this opinion. Marketing is about getting something known. If people cared more about which was the best option, marketing would have no effect and everyone would be buying various consumer groups' product-test recommendations.

As it is, there is an insane amount of choice for consumers. Go into a bookstore and you have thousands of options. Which does anyone buy? There needs to be selection criteria so you don't waste your money on a turkey. Thus, if you find a franchise you like, you buy it. And if something is recommended by a trusted source, you are more likely to buy it. I have read books I have not lied on the recommendations of friends. If I had picked other books, I could well have found something more to my tastes, but with so much choice, I went with the recommendations. If something becomes hugely popular like Harry Potter, it becomes an easy choice - after all, everyone else is reading it. Adding in the common social involvement with people discussing the book/film/game and the shared experience, newcomers will be encouraged to become involved due to social pressure.

'Critical mass' is the phrase. To be huge, you don't need to be the best, only the most popular. And becoming popular doesn't necessitate brilliance. Jade Goody, anyone? In the case of gaming, being good helps, but Okami sold however few thousands it was, whereas the critically panned (metacritic score 19%) Little Britain game released at the same time sold a million. In the case of Halo et al, the product was the right product, and marketing pushed them into the greater consciousness. Their sales aren't attributable to just being that good! ;)
 
Ive said it before it on these forums
marketing is the key, yes I agree with others MS does marketting much better than sony.
Look at 'natal' vs 'arc' youve gotta admit the marketting so far for natal has been far superior, has sony even done any demostrations?

Another thing I dont understand is why tout first day/week sales or preorders. eg final fantasy is a recent example or CODMW2, halo3. (OK youre saying youve made a profit already with the game :) ) but these are ppl /sheep who broought the game cause of the hype/faith
 
So do you think it is a coincidence that the best selling games out there had such a dominant position in the commericals?

How about poor selling games that had dominant positions in commercials? Point being that an unlimited marketing budget does not guarantee sales if people like other games better.


Maybe Sony's problem IS their marketing, but then again maybe the games they've created amongst their 1st parties so far (bar a few exceptions) just don't have enough "mainstream" appeal intrinsically... be that the game setting, art style, protagonist etc...

I know Sony marketing gets mentioned a lot as being bad, but aside from GTA4, by far the most video game commercials I see here in the LA area are PS3 commercials. They are everywhere! How much more marketing can they possibly do? Maybe it's a regional thing and only southern California is blanketed with PS3 commercials and other parts of the world are ignored, but there is seriously no shortage of PS3 marketing down here.


I'll chime in my support for this opinion. Marketing is about getting something known. If people cared more about which was the best option, marketing would have no effect and everyone would be buying various consumer groups' product-test recommendations.

As it is, there is an insane amount of choice for consumers. Go into a bookstore and you have thousands of options. Which does anyone buy? There needs to be selection criteria so you don't waste your money on a turkey. Thus, if you find a franchise you like, you buy it.

I agree that marketing is to get your brand/product known, but after that to get the sale your game has to carry it. Part of the reason games like MW2, Halo, GTA, etc sell so much is because people loved prior games in the series. An anecdotal example is that everyone I know that liked MW had decided they were going to buy MW2 far before their commercial campaign even began, so the marketing made no difference to them. They expected the next game in the series would be equally awesome based on the one before. Many GTA sales fall into that category as well. Marketing gets the game known so that people actively look to demo/try your game, then your game makes or breaks the sale. If people love your first game, they will tell others about it and it will be reflected in the sales. If they didn't like your first game, then that will also be reflected in the sales irregardless of the marketing.


I think you're completely missing my point. Consumers didn't buy more of Halo or MW2 because they LIKED them more than U2 or Killzone 2. They bought them because they knew about them, because everyone else was buying them, because there was a big ad campaign, because there was an hyped event in buying them.

When we talk about consumers above and beyond 3 million in sales - towards the 4-6 million - it's no longer about which game is liked more by "consumers". A significant number of consumers have bought U2 and KZ2 allowing us to actually say that "consumers" "like" those games.

When it gets beyond these numbers, towards Halo and MW, it's about the hive mind, the marketing, and previous knowledge. It's not about like/dislike. It's not about subjective or objective quality. It's not about consumers liking Halo more, and disliking U2. It's about snap purchases based on presumed quality and previous series knowledge. A big reason why U2 sold so much so early was because the slow sales of U1 brought the knowledge of the series to consumers.

And look, I agree. I don't particularly like FPS...however I do believe there is some kind of objective quality to releases (film, music, games) at the time of release (some do not age well). I believe based on the expectations of consumers of what a video game is in 2009-10, Uncharted 2 is a high quality game. On the whole, I'd expect most who would act to buy it to think it's "good" - though they may prefer other genres, or find it too difficult, or believe it's not quite to their taste.

My point is, if more people buy Halo over U2 - it's not because more people would like Halo to U2, it's just that more people bought Halo - there's no correlation to sales and whether people like it. I mean a hell of a lot of people buy games they thought they'd like and that in the end they didn't.

Conclusion: Purchasing comes before the subjective opinion (the only time this isn't the case is in those who rent before they buy a game).

Purchasing does not mean a consumer likes the game.
Not purchasing does not mean they dislike the game.

I agree with the 'previous knowledge' part, but not so much with the rest because if it was as simple as great marketing manipulating the hive mentality then there would be far more crappy games selling at higher numbers. That used to work in the old days because clueless parent would walk into video game store to buy a game for little Johnny, and they would buy a game of whatever brand they were familiar with because they had no clue about the games themselves. Nowadays I don't think that applies, I really don't believe people en masses blindly throw $60 at a game based purely on commercials, they have either demo'd it, rented it, or heard that it was good from a friend. Yes, the marketing made them aware of the game, but I believe that today most people won't buy a game unless they have either tried it, heard it was really good from some friends, or loved prior games in the series. So to your last point of:

My point is, if more people buy Halo over U2 - it's not because more people would like Halo to U2, it's just that more people bought Halo - there's no correlation to sales and whether people like it.

...well, I just don't agree. I think more people bought Halo than U2 because they liked it better, or maybe they thought it offered better long term play value and bought Halo and just rented and finished U2 over a weekend. Just my opinion though.
 
And i suspect that are VGChartz numbers and as such basically worthless.

Thats pretty unfair to Brett (the owner/site admin). They are close enough to the truth, and as all number do, they have a margin of error so must be taken with a grain of salt. We're better off with the numbers from Vgchartz, than without. Where else do you have a convenient source of industry sales numbers collated into the one place?
 
Of course word of mouth have some impact, but not on first week sales as someone pointed out. I have seen Demon Souls steadily making the top 10 list on one online shop I frequent and that as an import title! .

"Word of mouth" doesn't start the first day sales.

"You need to look at these awesome videos" can I have just as much impact as "I have this game and its awesome".

Word of mouth and marketing (outside of TV commericals) before release are probably the main reason why game sales are so front loaded.
 
Another thing I dont understand is why tout first day/week sales or preorders. eg final fantasy is a recent example or CODMW2, halo3. (OK youre saying youve made a profit already with the game :) ) but these are ppl /sheep who broought the game cause of the hype/faith

Its for future potential consumers and for public corporations for potential consumers as well as investors.
 
Nowadays I don't think that applies, I really don't believe people en masses blindly throw $60 at a game based purely on commercials, they have either demo'd it, rented it, or heard that it was good from a friend.

Um, we know they do. We're talking about Halo 3 and MW2, these are games with enormous day-1 sales. The only info these people have are commercials and game reviews.

They may also draw more sales via word of mouth etc. but that on top of selling a lot from the outset.
 
I agree that marketing is to get your brand/product known, but after that to get the sale your game has to carry it. Part of the reason games like MW2, Halo, GTA, etc sell so much is because people loved prior games in the series. An anecdotal example is that everyone I know that liked MW had decided they were going to buy MW2 far before their commercial campaign even began, so the marketing made no difference to them.
Right. you can't have one without the other. However, marketing will be more important to new IPs. eg. all your friends had decided to buy MW2 long before advertising began. How would a competing game, a better game that these people would like more, attract their attention and convert their purchase? Their mind was already made up by prior experience. This is true for all the big hitters - the sequel is going to be bought. All the other developers in the world need to find a way to get them to stop following what they know and try something new and untested. Same with books. How could any new author convince the millions who buy HP, perhaps as their only book a year, to instead buy a different book that they'd actually prefer if they only read it? Basically, it can't be done! Publishers chase after these golden geese, and then once they have it, they squeeze everything they can from it, and other opportunists will cash in on the franchise. The Harry Potter game sold regardless of being good or bad, because it was a franchise people already new.

The only way to get that big is crazy marketing, somewhere along the line.
 
Thats pretty unfair to Brett (the owner/site admin). They are close enough to the truth, and as all number do, they have a margin of error so must be taken with a grain of salt.

He has no real source for his numbers, he is predicting them like analysts. That does work sometimes, but often it doesn't. I have seen numbers that were only 1/3 of the real sales and i have seen numbers which doubled the real sales. How is that a base for talking about sales ?

We're better off with the numbers from Vgchartz, than without. Where else do you have a convenient source of industry sales numbers collated into the one place?

It's really sad how many people use these numbers (even "journalists" use(d) them).
Where do you think these numbers come from and why are you getting them for free, when you have to pay NPD a lot of money for it?
 
How could any new author convince the millions who buy HP, perhaps as their only book a year, to instead buy a different book that they'd actually prefer if they only read it? Basically, it can't be done!

How did Harry Potter get big? How did Halo, or COD, or the Sims get big?

I think they all started with a quality product that managed to build up word of mouth and started a snowball effect. I dunno about the book sales, and it might not be right to apply them to games anyway (as books don't age as much as a video game), but I suspect that each new HP book got more and more customers at its launch just as Halo and COD did.

But the flocking effect is also real, people will be more interested in stuff that's more popular. Just to be able to join the water cooler discussions, be in the know, even if they might be enjoying less popular games a bit more. There's definitely a big social effect there.
Same goes for movies and especially TV shows, as it seems, it's far more likely that you'll check out the show your friends and co-workers talk about then the one that gets good critiques or awards. Fact of life, really.
 
Where do you think these numbers come from and why are you getting them for free, when you have to pay NPD a lot of money for it?

To be fair, he does get NPD data and stuff like that, and re-adjusts his numbers quite often and quite drastically. It's only the new stuff that's really unreliable, the longer you go back for the popular stuff, the more likely it is that he has the right data.
 
To be fair, he does get NPD data and stuff like that, and re-adjusts his numbers quite often and quite drastically. It's only the new stuff that's really unreliable, the longer you go back for the popular stuff, the more likely it is that he has the right data.

The problem here is that he is only getting the Top10 + Hardware sales (like everyone else) and adjusts his numbers accordingly. Meaning that he can't adjust his numbers for titles who weren't in the Top10.
Not to speak of European sales for example, where no numbers are available publically.
 
I think they all started with a quality product that managed to build up word of mouth and started a snowball effect.
Not necessarily. AFAIK with HP, it was fairly small until someone decided to create a movie and WB marketed the Betsy out of it. Prior to that it was a conventionally well-selling children's book. Having a great title certainly helps. UC2's performance shows that word of UC1 seems to have promoted people buying the sequel similar to Halo and Gears.

To be clear, I'm not trying to say it's a choice between either having extensive marketing or a great title. Ideally you want both. IMO though, you cannot have a huge success without substantial marketing. It doesn't matter how good your game is, nor how many people around the world could enjoy it; you need to be able to convince them to give it a go, and by nature most people will be reluctant to try something new that they haven't been conditioned to accept beforehand.
 
Not necessarily. AFAIK with HP, it was fairly small until someone decided to create a movie and WB marketed the Betsy out of it.

Would Warner have made a movie about a book noone really knows about? :)

IMO though, you cannot have a huge success without substantial marketing. It doesn't matter how good your game is, nor how many people around the world could enjoy it; you need to be able to convince them to give it a go, and by nature most people will be reluctant to try something new that they haven't been conditioned to accept beforehand.

I'll try to find you the article about the social aspects, it's quite interesting indeed...
 
You forget the quite important effect of having played previous games in the series.

Sure, so maybe we shouldn't be talking about a bunch of sequels in the first place. Or at least not comparing games that are sequels to games that were received tepidly, if not negatively. MW1 went on word of mouth. MW2 was built on the previous games' power. Same applies to Halo.
 
He has no real source for his numbers, he is predicting them like analysts. That does work sometimes, but often it doesn't. I have seen numbers that were only 1/3 of the real sales and i have seen numbers which doubled the real sales. How is that a base for talking about sales ?



It's really sad how many people use these numbers (even "journalists" use(d) them).
Where do you think these numbers come from and why are you getting them for free, when you have to pay NPD a lot of money for it?

No real source? He uses sources from retail just like NPD etc, so whilst he has fewer sources to work with it does make his numbers the most accurate publicly available database. Since hes making moves to charge a yearly fee to make use of the data hes either nuts or has a legitimate belief that the accuracy of the numbers is worthwhile enough to be within respectable margins enough to sell.
 
Right. you can't have one without the other. However, marketing will be more important to new IPs. eg. all your friends had decided to buy MW2 long before advertising began. How would a competing game, a better game that these people would like more, attract their attention and convert their purchase?

I agree that marketing with new ip's is critical. I've also always argued that the best time to launch a new ip is to coincide it with a new console launch along with a marketing blitz, because there isn't much out there for people to buy at launch so there is a good chance that people will pick up your new ip just to try it out. For this gen, Resistance and Gears Of War are two good examples of this. But the games we are talking about aren't new ips, they are games like R2, U2, KZ2, etc...

Fast forward to the sequel Resistance 2. Was there really a marketing failure with this title? Can anyone really say with confidence that the Resistance ip is largely unknown to PS3 users? I personally do not subscribe to the fact that marketing for this title failed and that most PS3 users are still unaware of the Resistance ip's existence. Instead my theory is that word of mouth on the first game was just average, and with tons of A+ games to choose from the Resistance ip fell out of peoples top 10 list.

Take Uncharted 2 as another example. Can anyone say with confidence that the Uncharted ip is unknown to PS3 users? Was this really another marketing failure? Or is it possible that after having tried U1, that word of mouth on U2 was that while it might good game, it's maybe more of a good weekend rental instead of a buy?

Take KZ2 as a third example. Marketing failure? There have been so many commercials for this game. In fact I think I even recall seeing a commercial for it at a theater. Shooters are often categorized as games for the gamer hardcore, so does anyone feel that there is any hardcore PS3 gamer that hasn't heard of the KZ2 ip? Is it because of marketing that sales didn't hit the mark, or is it perhaps the double whammy of the first game in the series being not known as anything special, and then perhaps, just perhaps, people trying the demo and being totally turned off by the controls? Perhaps, and jsut perhaps, they tried KZ2 online and found the experience just lacking compared to say MW or Halo 3?

In all of the above cases, namely the Resistance, Uncharted and Killzone ip's, I don't feel at all that marketing has failed them. In fact it's the opposite, marketing on them has worked so well that just about every gamer knows of those three ip's. Marketing fails when for example someone mentions an ip and someone else has no clue what they are talking about. Like if I said "Hey have you played Uncharted" and someone replies "What's that?", then marketing has hugely failed. I really find it hard to believe that PS3 owners by and large have no knowledge of the Resistance, Uncharted and Killzone ips. I think I'd sooner be able to find someone that hasn't heard of Chevy. So marketing's primary goal is to create ip awareness, which in this case it has done very well.

It's additional goal is to create future excitement to further the brand and it's sales, and that's where the problem lies. Not because the marketing wasn't there mind you, but because while the marketing succeeded at it's first goal to make those ip's well known, they could not overcome the word of mouth on the current games as well as the high level of A+ gaming competition. If said games had made a huge splash with their first games in the series that would have helped (like with MW), but alas they didn't.

Ultimately I believe the players have spoken with their wallets and they have bought what they liked best, simple as that. I don't subscribe to the "everyone buys what marketing tells them" theory, but that's just me.


Their mind was already made up by prior experience. This is true for all the big hitters - the sequel is going to be bought. All the other developers in the world need to find a way to get them to stop following what they know and try something new and untested.

That isn't necessarily the case though. Halo 3 was so well loved that ridiculous sales for Halo Reach are all but assured. MW was so popular as well that sales for MW2 were also expected to be huge. It's not marketing that did the trick there, but the fact that the prior games in the series were so good that people expected similar awesomeness from the sequels. Marketing helps launch the ip, then the games and their sequels carry them to sales along with help from marketing to create excitement. As important as marketing may be, without a good game you are still s.o.l.

Now look at the Tomb Raider franchise. Years ago there was tons of marketing done for it. There had to, it was a new ip so they had to get the word out. Fast forward a little and it became a well love game to where for a while sales of the sequels were all but assured. But fast forward some more and something changed along the way, and sales have been considered disappointing. Is that due to a marketing failure? I don't think so. Is there really anyone left alive that doesn't know who Lara Croft is? But after a few mediocre games the franchise took a hit and sequel sales no longer became automatic. Even the most current game, Underworld, while a good game was still deemed a sales failure. Again I think marketing has nothing to do with that, instead the hit is two fold. The first chunk of damage was done by some of the games in the series being less than stellar, and secondly is that clearly there is something about the play style of the game that just isn't appealing to people as much as Eidos would like. Maybe the play style is deemed a bit dated, maybe the ip is tired, who knows. But I don't think it's marketing that failed it, I think the game itself did perhaps because it didn't evolve quickly enough, or maybe it became viewed as the same old same old compared to the competition.
 
How many people were familiar with Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep when Warner Bros. released Blade Runner?

Maybe a bad example, since it was not considered a box office success. Even though after the fact, it's come to be considered a sci-fi classic.

Not necessarily. AFAIK with HP, it was fairly small until someone decided to create a movie and WB marketed the Betsy out of it. Prior to that it was a conventionally well-selling children's book. Having a great title certainly helps.

Shifty I'm picking up some strong negative Harry Potter vibes off of you here. :)

I think Harry Potter was selling quite well before the movies actually; maybe in the home country of the UK it was confined to the children sphere, but in the US it had already become a cross-age-boundaries phenom.
 
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