I have my doubts about it hitting that early or even E3 2015 (mid-Spring).
XBox One 20nm APU revision possibilities *spawn*
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I have my doubts about it hitting that early or even E3 2015 (mid-Spring).
east of eastside
Newcomer
I think they'll do it sooner - as soon as they can contractually, by which I mean as long as their production plan doesn't include long-term contracts for the current chassis, or make it prohibitively expensive to get out of it. Making Xbox One smaller tomorrow will mean every console produced thereafter cheaper in every respect.
I also think it'll be good for Microsoft in terms of image. This is the new 'Xbox One'. Forget all that crazy shit from 2013
The 8 million existing owners would kind of make it hard to justify an abrupt redesign.
That's why I'm saying 20nm is just an internal chip revision and not an all new model.
When the existing X1/PS4 are kind of long in the tooth they will get a mid-life redesign in '16 that fits neatly in the overall plan.
Just to be clear, I'm talking about the same original case with a new 20nm chip inside.. an internal chip revision of the existing model, nothing more.
It's a matter of when TSMC switches over to supplying 20nm AMD chips which, according to indication, is supposed to be early '15.
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Deleted member 11852
Guest
Consumer electronics get redesigned all the time. Many things are already on a yearly cycle.
east of eastside
Newcomer
It's unprecedented this early in the life of a console and would produce significant consumer backlash that would resonate through all the tech blogs and social media.
Of course, other consumer electronics products are expected to have yearly updates these days, but a console is assumed to be a longer term 'marriage' with some kind of refresh mid-life.
The 20nm internal chip revision will be nothing more than some entirely unannounced, internal, manufacturing revision, first seen in a retail sku bundle to be released end of spring/summer '15.
In other words, MS won't even officially announce the 20nm revision other than letting AMD announce it's console chips are now on a new 20nm process.
Just curious about what sources you're reading as there was a recent report about the next high end AMD GPUs arriving H2 2015. There's also been recent discussion about node availability and costs in the AMD Pirates thread, which may be of interest.
How much could they redesign the console based on a shrink to 20nm? Other consoles didn't get hardware shrinks until considerable savings on the processors. eg. PS3, but ol' box that it was, remained a big 'ol box for a few component revisions until the slim. PS2 remained PS2 size until significant die shrinks. The internals may well be revised in a new XB1 with cheaper cooling, but I'd be surprised if it got a slim down too. It could happen, but I'd be surprised. As others have mentioned, there's scope to decrease size with an increase in volume.
rokkerkory
Regular
It'll be just a slim model but honestly I don't get why consoles cannot have refreshes?
Every 3 years with updated h/w @ 350-400 price point while maintaining BC wouldn't that be great? Many many other consumer electronic devices go through refreshes in half that time or less.
Why can't this be done? It won't piss off anyone since 3 years will be long enough to enjoy a console and games and if refresh maintains BC then it becomes a true platform. Devs and consumers could enjoy forever growing library of games and consumer base?
Every 3 years with updated h/w @ 350-400 price point while maintaining BC wouldn't that be great? Many many other consumer electronic devices go through refreshes in half that time or less.
Why can't this be done? It won't piss off anyone since 3 years will be long enough to enjoy a console and games and if refresh maintains BC then it becomes a true platform. Devs and consumers could enjoy forever growing library of games and consumer base?
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
Everything was unprecedented until it was precedented.
Consumer backlash? Why? You chose to look at the negative, I chose to look at the positive. I can't think of many consumer electronics products that lost desirability because they got smaller and more compact. This makes them more desirable.
And the truth is, Microsoft have already sold millions of consoles to people who were happy to buy that particular product. They can sell millions more smaller consoles to new people.
Things change. All the time. This backlash thing is nonsense that simply is not born out anywhere else in consumer space.
Wrong thread.
A local school has all their kids using iPads. Last year, every year 7 child got (at considerable expense to the parents) a new iPad Air. They were well impressed and flaunted their new tech. This year, the Year 7s get iPad Air 2, and all the Year 8's are jealous and don't think so highly of their tablets.
Refreshes can mean you look less favourable at what you own. I don't particularly agree with the sentiment that there'll be backlash, but there's certainly associated negativity. eg. Everyone who bought a PS2 fat shortly before the PS2 Slim was disappointed in their PS2 and wished they had waited. That wouldn't affect sales though, so it's not an issue that's worth considering. More important to attract new users, and there's the added bonus of potentially selling to the same customers who want the New and Improved and pass their Old and Inferior to someone down the line.
east of eastside
Newcomer
Okay, those may be more specific and/or recent sources than what I glanced at which was the kind of articles that turned up in a Bing news search.
I remember an article (X-bit labs?) about Lisa Su mentioning 2 (not just one) die shrinks for each console that AMD was working on, and that the 20nm TSMC fab would be available to AMD 'early next year' after passing on costlier, lower yields in '14. Another article speculated that the console APU's would get 20nm fab preference over the AMD PC GPU's. Which make sense considering the volume.
east of eastside
Newcomer
Of course, I just made a post the other day stating that I was allowing for something "unprecedented and unconventional"... for that remote possibility..
But the fact is releasing a Slim console this early would just be.. bad marketing.
If you were a kid that saved his money to buy the Sunset Overdrive bundle for Christmas and not 6 months later there is something sleek and shiny that is going to replace it and make it look like a microwave, you would be pretty pissed off... bad marketing, consumer backlash.
There will be a 16nm process for AMD in '16 which, is more significant shrink than 28 to 20, and that will be the right time to do a total redesign of the X1 board from a technology and marketing perspective.
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
How is this relevant in 2015 but not 2016. There will always be some kid who saved up for an Xbox only to have a Slim come six months later.
We are already in a circumstance where you can buy a $150 cheaper sku with a game bundled inside with the XB1 less than a year old. If the market can accept that reality, I have a hard time believing a considerable amount of people are going to be pissed at a Slim showing up 18 months after launch.
east of eastside
Newcomer
Because the informed consumer expects a console to get upgraded mid-life and, thus, withholds purchase a few months later to wait for the slim model.
I can entertain the unlikely scenario that MS has a slim model unveiled at E3' 15 and, to prevent the upcoming social media and tech backlash from existing owners, gloriously presents everyone at the E3 conference their own slim model and is billed the hero.
Would X1 Slim's E3'15 unveiling be an unprecedented scenario by MS to attempt to win some of the millions of PS4 owners that have held back buying the original..?
I just don't believe this scenario... the Linkedin 'leak' refers to a 20nm revision that was planned along with the original 28nm and not some surprise 20nm model that has been secretly hatched recently because of X1's sales versus PS4's.
That this Linkedin would happen to coincide by 'karma' in some synchronicity with an unconventional secret unveiling of a new X1 slim, just doesn't intuitively hold any reality for me.
I'm happy to be wrong, I just suggest that speculation be more grounded in the likelihood that 20nm is just an internal chip revision of the existing model.
Informed about what? The psone showed a year after the ps2 was launched. The ps2 slim showed about a year before the 360 was launched. The ps3 slim showed up 3 years after the original launched. The 360 S came out 5 years after the original launch. The closest thing the XboxOG had to a Slim was its S controller which showed up after a year because the original was considered too bulky.
Any informed consumer would know Slim models aren't on some rigid mid cycle release schedule. They are released mostly released at EOL (the ps3 slim pretty much broke that mold) when the companies find it advantageous.
I'm not betting on a xb1 slim next year. But the fact that people complaining about the size and MS actively remedying the percieved short comings of the device, I wouldn't be surprised.
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Deleted member 11852
Guest
Maybe, but did those people who bought a fat PS2 stop buying games? Because that's really what matters. The better scenario for Sony would be those people then buying a Slim PS2 (assuming they are sold at profit). The same can be true for Microsoft.
Ideally you want to grow your customer base, i.e. not just have everybody who bought an original Xbox One replace it with a Xbox One Slim, but even this will likely result in second hand sales to new owners - cheaper consoles, lower barrier to entry, new customers.
Do it Microsoft, do it
I love the diffrence in naraitive when you look at this and the amd thread for thier next card.
In that thread people believe 20nm wont be enough of a step to do anything and it will actually cost more than a 28nm .
In this thread people think we will get a slim xbox one because of 20nm.
I think its safe to say there wont be a slim xbox one in 2015 or on 20nm at all. 20nm is most likely going to be end up as a cost effective price drop for the unit since the sram should shrink very well for them. It will allow them to get to $300 in 2015 . It wont bring a slim edition . the 16nm drop would be the first slim drop and i would assume that it would be more like the first ps3 slim .
I'm not sure why people are obessed with size. The xbox one is silent , i wouldn't trade that for size. Its not like people carry these around playing games.
In that thread people believe 20nm wont be enough of a step to do anything and it will actually cost more than a 28nm .
In this thread people think we will get a slim xbox one because of 20nm.
I think its safe to say there wont be a slim xbox one in 2015 or on 20nm at all. 20nm is most likely going to be end up as a cost effective price drop for the unit since the sram should shrink very well for them. It will allow them to get to $300 in 2015 . It wont bring a slim edition . the 16nm drop would be the first slim drop and i would assume that it would be more like the first ps3 slim .
I'm not sure why people are obessed with size. The xbox one is silent , i wouldn't trade that for size. Its not like people carry these around playing games.
shredenvain
Regular
It's most likely is not going to be a slim model released at 20nm.
It will just be a die shrink. So arguing over consumer backlash really isnt necessary.
Last gen we had die shrinks without a change in form factor.
It will just be a die shrink. So arguing over consumer backlash really isnt necessary.
Last gen we had die shrinks without a change in form factor.
D
Deleted member 11852
Guest
I don't think an Xbox Slim will happen because of 20nm but a new chip is the catalyst for a new board so why shrink the whole thing.
The Xbox One was originally designed to be an always on universal media box hub that ran silent for 20 years. Microsoft actually made a big deal about saying that then design language was so it would look at home in a media centre.
That vision died almost a year ago. Now it's back to being an Xbox: gaming machine that also does media well.
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