XBox 360 Price Cut/60GB model*

[jonabbey]

The technology to antiquate BD already exists, it's only a matter of price point.

Price point and universality. Physical media make it easy to see the parameters of the market.. either you can support the physical format and can participate in its network effects, or you can't. Digital downloads are fractured amongst multiple DRM'ed silos (Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, Tivo, Hulu, Sony, Comcast, AT&T, Time Warner, DirecTV, Vudu, Dish..), which reduce the value of each silo's players.

Network effects will decide how things go.

As for the 360 price cut I think it's pretty evident that they're going to make a move. The NPDs have to have been disappointing for Microsoft so far this year.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Price point and universality. Physical media make it easy to see the parameters of the market.. either you can support the physical format and can participate in its network effects, or you can't. Digital downloads are fractured amongst multiple DRM'ed silos (Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, Amazon, Tivo, Hulu, Sony, Comcast, AT&T, Time Warner, DirecTV, Vudu, Dish..), which reduce the value of each silo's players.

Just to clarify, I was talking about other methods of physical media making BD already obsolete. Digital downloads being the end goal, BD being a step towards that goal and other methods (also only being a step towards that goal) already making BD obsolete.

When DVD replaced VHS there weren't other options clearly visible on the horizon as superior to DVD. That's evidenced by the fact that we are only now making the transition to BD.

That is different than the current situation where there are already numerous techs out there that provide superior choices to BD, but cost is a limiting factor in their implementation.

 

[Fafalada]

The NPDs have to have been disappointing for Microsoft so far this year.

Strictly speaking they had an increase YoY so it's not like Sony caught them because they are doing worse then last year.
The other thing is that whether people want to admit it or not, Wii is canibalizing HD console sales, and so far there's been little evidence that price dropping will make 360 or PS3 more competitive against that - beyond the standard short term increase.

Ultimately, I see BD like I saw VCDs. Just a little stepping stone towards the next best thing.

How much of market adoption did VCD ever really have - outside of pirated videos that is? BD at least has been comparing favorably against DVD in early growth rates, and in some markets it's been making rather large gains against DVD already (to the point where BD shelfspace is begining to rival DVD in video stores).

 

[RobertR1]

Well, note that BD drives cost much less now than two years ago. There will come a time when a BD drive won't cost too much more than a DVD drive; as we approach that time I could see MS including a BD drive rather than DVD.

But then again... why bother maybe.

Anyway to the thread in general, whatever else is going on, I would definitely believe a 60GB 360 on the horizon. I almost can't imagine that any major OEMs are even producing 20GB drives anymore, to say nothing of the extremely marginal cost differentials that would exist between 20GB and 60GB even if they were. Plus at a lower price, it would give the 360 an easy spec-up on the 40GB PS3 that's visible right on the box for those folk that shop at the store and compare number to number.

By the time BD drives are comparable to DVD drives, stand alone players will be very cheap and the 360 will be in the shadows of the Xbox 3. And we're not even talking the financial commiment required for personnel in implementing the BD system and QA yet. There's just really no point.

They should stick with the strategy they have. What I would like to see is HDD on all sku's with 2nd disc game installs on the HDD. I don't care about having 2 discs. Let me put the content of the 2nd disc on the HDD. This way there is less space used on the 2nd disc also since redundant data for functionality is not needed.

 

[liolio]

I'd like to see them sell off the 20GB stock for cheap and just introduce 60GB in the Pro. *sigh*

I would like to add that it (HDD upgrade) it may also coincide with the lunch of the full 65nm 360.

It makes a lot of sense for Ms to clear the channel, especially if they are sure that the reliability are behind them.

Between Patcher is lame, he thinks Sony will react if Ms sales goes up.
I think it's unlikely, I would be surprised if the 360 encounter some shortages till the launch of the system next revision (65nm + bigger HDD)

 

[assen]

What I would like to see is HDD on all sku's with 2nd disc game installs on the HDD. I don't care about having 2 discs. Let me put the content of the 2nd disc on the HDD. This way there is less space used on the 2nd disc also since redundant data for functionality is not needed.

And what I would like to see is a $99-149 Arcade, or an Arcade given out by cable TV companies with a 12-month contract. I would like to see an Arcade with 1-2 GB of internal flash, for downloading XBLA games. The HDD is "functionality that is not needed" for a large majority of the games, even as an optimization. I am more than willing to constrain myself to developing HDD-less games if it means a significantly larger install base.

 

[Tap In]

What I would like to see is HDD on all sku's with 2nd disc game installs on the HDD. I don't care about having 2 discs. Let me put the content of the 2nd disc on the HDD. This way there is less space used on the 2nd disc also since redundant data for functionality is not needed.

I don't care about all skus having HDD (just bought an arcade for the kids and the MU is fine). I still tink the only chance for a $149 sku is the HDD-less Arcade in a year or two which I believe is still the smart option

But I agree now that I have upgraded to an elite for my box, I'd prefer to have more OPTIONS to use the HDD... installing not only 2nd discs but all games thst i can load from the HDD so I don't have to get up to change discs all the time... I swear it keeps me from playing some games.

although I'm guessing even that would require a DVD disc in the drive to check ownership

 

[RobertR1]

installing not only 2nd discs but all games thst i can load from the HDD so I don't have to get up to change discs all the time... I swear it keeps me from playing some games.

I know exactly what you mean by that. Esp for older games for me. I wanna go back and play them but I just end up playing the disc in there. Being able to keep them on the HDD would certainly get me to replay them more.

 

[Tap In]

I know exactly what you mean by that. Esp for older games for me. I wanna go back and play them but I just end up playing the disc in there. Being able to keep them on the HDD would certainly get me to replay them more.

if given the option i would opt for digital downloads only for all my games.. It works so slick with arcade games I know I would love the instant access... more akin to changing channels. As much as I may maraton on certain games, I sometimes only want to sample a little bit of gameplay of each for 20-30 minutes.

I would kind of like the bhox art though which i may miss but I'd get over that in a hurry for the convenience factor. they could also just put a big box art background on the blade as the game is being selected.

as for the pricing... I think $299 for the 20GB is a sweet deal and am thinking $229 for arcade and $399 for eleite... a straight $50 across the board.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

HA! No kidding.

If the component costs of BD are as expensive as Carl says in the PS3 loss thread, there's no way it would ever be included, and I'm not sure it would be included even if it were only a relatively minor increase in cost..

The only significant stuff that are expensive with BD are fixed costs, mostly R&D, MS doesn't need to do to make their own drive like sony did, they just need to licence a cheap bluray drive. The reason why bluray drives is only that manufacturers want to make back all their fixed costs. As production volumes goes up, price goes down alot.

You can buy a Bluray drive today from pioneer(!) for $169. If youd make a large scale commitment with a bluray manufacter like MS would have to, the costs would probably be far less than most people here imagine. The actual material costs of making a bluray drive are not much higher than a DVD drive. Whats driving the prices right now are fixed costs.

I dont really see the point of a Bluray x360 but the costs will be completely different than in Sony's scenario.

 

[Carl B]

The only significant stuff that are expensive with BD are fixed costs, mostly R&D, MS doesn't need to do to make their own drive like sony did, they just need to licence a cheap bluray drive.

I dont really see the point of a Bluray x360 but the costs will be completely different than in Sony's scenario.

That 'cheap' drive still won't be cheap though, certainly premising a higher price point if nothing else. And Sony's fixed costs in BD R&D weren't the realm of SCEI; SCEI's losses in relation to the tech stem mainly from their use of it from a component standpoint early in its life.

 

[Mintmaster]

The actual material costs of making a bluray drive are not much higher than a DVD drive. Whats driving the prices right now are fixed costs.

Fixed costs never affect prices. They are sunk costs and can't be changed. All the manufacturer can do now is maximize total profit, i.e. margin*volume.

There's no way that BR has costs even close to DVD now unless there's a really screwy demand curve right now with extremely brand-loyal consumers. Well, that or price-fixing.

 

[Zassk]

And what I would like to see is a $99-149 Arcade, or an Arcade given out by cable TV companies with a 12-month contract. I would like to see an Arcade with 1-2 GB of internal flash, for downloading XBLA games. The HDD is "functionality that is not needed" for a large majority of the games, even as an optimization. I am more than willing to constrain myself to developing HDD-less games if it means a significantly larger install base.

Agreed 100%. It would be the gaming deal of the decade. Unfortunately, MS makes so many profits off of downloaded content, I doubt they will ever put this much emphasis on the non-HDD model.

 

[AlphaWolf]

There's really little reason they'd have to stop at 1gb of flash memory. If they really wanted cheap storage they could just sell a 4gb memory card for $10 and include it with the arcade pack. I can already buy flash memory for that price.

 

[obonicus]

Agreed 100%. It would be the gaming deal of the decade. Unfortunately, MS makes so many profits off of downloaded content, I doubt they will ever put this much emphasis on the non-HDD model.

They give it emphasis because it allows them to say they have an SKU that is cheaper than the Wii. Plus, it allows them to nickel and dime folks a lot more. I don't think they'd go with cheap flash memory, though, not with the 512MB card retailing for $40. If anything, they'd put flash at a price where it'd seem expensive against a $99 20GB HDD.

Edit: If they do discontinue the 20GB, they'd still price flash memory so it's not competitive MB-wise with whatever the new HD costs. (I'm assuming $99 for 60GB?)

 

[expletive]

Well, note that BD drives cost much less now than two years ago. There will come a time when a BD drive won't cost too much more than a DVD drive; as we approach that time I could see MS including a BD drive rather than DVD.

But then again... why bother maybe.

Anyway to the thread in general, whatever else is going on, I would definitely believe a 60GB 360 on the horizon. I almost can't imagine that any major OEMs are even producing 20GB drives anymore, to say nothing of the extremely marginal cost differentials that would exist between 20GB and 60GB even if they were. Plus at a lower price, it would give the 360 an easy spec-up on the 40GB PS3 that's visible right on the box for those folk that shop at the store and compare number to number.

Are the current spec BD drives fast enough with DVD media to support the 360's library of 'stream off the disc' titles? I reall that being an issue with the first gen drives.

If not, then MS cant do a drop-in replacement with a BR drive, since some of the current software wont play properly without the necessary access time and/or transfer speeds.

 

[one]

Are the current spec BD drives fast enough with DVD media to support the 360's library of 'stream off the disc' titles? I reall that being an issue with the first gen drives.

If not, then MS cant do a drop-in replacement with a BR drive, since some of the current software wont play properly without the necessary access time and/or transfer speeds.

Lite-on DH-4O1S BD-ROM reader ($150) can read BD-ROM at 4x but it only reads DVD DL at 8x (SL is 12x).
http://us.liteonit.com/us/index.php...k=view&id=242&Itemid=191&limit=1&limitstart=1
Does the 360 DVD drive read a DVD DL at 12x?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Does the 360 DVD drive read a DVD DL at 12x?

pretty sure it only does single layer reads at 12x.

 

[Rangers]

That 'cheap' drive still won't be cheap though, certainly premising a higher price point if nothing else. And Sony's fixed costs in BD R&D weren't the realm of SCEI; SCEI's losses in relation to the tech stem mainly from their use of it from a component standpoint early in its life.

The costs on 360 hardware may be low enough where a Blu Ray Elite can be introduced at 399 though.

Right now one would think 360 hardware is pretty profitable, with more die shrinks and costs savings coming in the near future. If the rest of the fixed hardware costs have dropped enough Blu Ray can be fit in with a price drop, along with perhaps a willingness to accept reduced margins on the Elite model from what they are now.

 

[22psi]

Interesting that the 60gb prem sku is 3lbs lighter than the 20gb version. Smaller powerbrick and 60nm gpu?