WHy doesn't MS have more exclusives?

[blakjedi]

I been wondering what it will take for MS to survive the onslaught that will be PS3. The power, the exclusives, the hype will go a long way toward makeing PS3 a successful console if not the most successful ever.

For MS they may have lost the power esge this round, the hype isnt nearly as strong as for PS3 and the exclusives...... arent really there.

Personally I think of think of two games series that MS should have cordoned off as MS exclusives a long time ago: Prince of Persia and Splinter Cell.

PoP could have been MS's God of War level exclusive. Now its a multi platform series... SC was and is the definitive competitor to MGS. Both games are multiplatform while both PS competitors are exclusive.... how in the world can you compete against a company like Sony when their system has nearly all your games and then a whole host of games that are exclusive?

Dont say Halo either cause... some of us folks who own Xboxen cant (in my case) or wont buy Halo ever. Im not an FPS guy.

/rant

 

[London Geezer]

I been wondering what it will take for MS to survive the onslaught that will be PS3. The power, the exclusives, the hype will go a long way toward makeing PS3 a successful console if not the most successful ever.

For MS they may have lost the power esge this round, the hype isnt nearly as strong as for PS3 and the exclusives...... arent really there.

Personally I think of think of two games series that MS should have cordoned off as MS exclusives a long time ago: Prince of Persia and Splinter Cell.

PoP could have been MS's God of War level exclusive. Now its a multi platform series... SC was and is the definitive competitor to MGS. Both games are multiplatform while both PS competitors are exclusive.... how in the world can you compete against a company like Sony when their system has nearly all your games and then a whole host of games that are exclusive?

Dont say Halo either cause... some of us folks who own Xboxen cant (in my case) or wont buy Halo ever. Im not an FPS guy.

/rant

No one's forcing you to buy an X360 you know.
MS seems to have some exclusive, like PGR, DOA, Halo, GearsOfWar... If they don't interest you then i guess you know what you have to do
I think the X360 is in a much better place that the first Xbox was.

 

[digitalwanderer]

I think the X360s biggest advantage is still gonna be the fact that it'll be the only "next-gen" console available for a while, that will sell quite a few of them

 

[London Geezer]

I think the X360s biggest advantage is still gonna be the fact that it'll be the only "next-gen" console available for a while, that will sell quite a few of them

And a Xmas all alone! that is if MS can get enough units in the shops to be picked up easily. If there are shortages, the advantage will be nullified. MS need to maximise their output very quickly cause PS3 is around the corner. Still, Sony will have trouble meeting demand too for a while so i guess MS do have some time in their hands to sell a few million units.

 

[blakjedi]

No one's forcing you to buy an X360 you know.
MS seems to have some exclusive, like PGR, DOA, Halo, GearsOfWar... If they don't interest you then i guess you know what you have to do
I think the X360 is in a much better place that the first Xbox was.

Maaaan I want a 360 and will get it.. but I always wonder... is it MS that is not doing a good job of sell the exclusivity of 360 or are devs just reluctant?

Personally I think that the xbox is just hitting its stride and x360 could have afforded to come out in 06. Additional engineering on the 360 subsystem, higher operating profits for the xbox division for one more year, addtional developer time on current hardware and addtional prep time for next gen, probably lower cost/higher quality production (65nm versus 90?)... would all add up to a ferocious but stronger for MS re-entry to the market.

I think x360 will do well in spite of how MS has handled the run up to the launch... but there is no potential surplus that MS could create within a 6-12 month launch window which PS could not overcome... they needed a better strategy.

 

[London Geezer]

Maaaan I want a 360 and will get it.. but I always wonder... is it MS that is not doing a good job of sell the exclusivity of 360 or are devs just reluctant?

Personally I think that the xbox is just hitting its stride and could have afford to come out in 06. Additional engineering on the 360 subsystem, higher operating profits for the xbox division for one more year, addtional developer time on current hardware and addtional prep time for next gen, probably lower cost/higher quality production (65nm versus 90?)

I think x360 will do well in spite of how MS has handled the run up to the launch... there is no potential surplus that MS could create within a 6-12 month launch window which PS could not overcome... they needed a better strategy.

I think MS need to prove themselves to the developers, much like Sony had to do when they came out with the PS1 and everyone was saying "they'll surely fail! the Saturn will trash the PS1!!".
Strategy plays a big part, and that includes the whole range of PR, marketing, and content obviously.
I think MS's strongest card is the online component. Personally i don't play games online, that's why X360 doesn't appeal to me as much as it does to most other people.
If they can convince the developers that they have in their hands something that is stronger than the competition, they will get the exclusives. I think the HDD thing was a big cock-up on their parts.

Also remember that the studios developing exclusives are getting fewer and fewer. It makes much more sense these days to maximise the company's profit and release one product on as many platforms as possible.

 

[Acert93]

1. There is no need to announce exclusives yet because they will be the only console out for 6-12 months.

2. MS seems more aimed at porting between the PC and Xbox 360. That lends itself to a lot of titles in of itself and exclusives or "timed" exclusives. FarCry, Doom 3, Half Life 2, Sid Meier's Pirates!, etc... MS is beginning to reap the reward of this.

3. It is a process. It takes time to build up an array of good exclusives. But looking at it I think the 360 has "a lot" of exclusives:

Kameo (looking good... will be attractive to the Mario/Zelda crowd)
Perfect Dark (if it plays well will appeal to 007 fans)
PGR3 (one of the hottest next gen games)
Oblivion (it seems at least, will appeal to certain RPG players)
Gears of War (one of the hottest next gen games)

99 Nights might be exclusive. CoD2 is exclusive, at least for a while. Ditto DoA4. Who knows with Prey and Q4 (not that they make a huge difference). Ghost Recon is a toss up as well. Then you have:

Halo 3
Forza 2
Jade Empire 2
MechAssault

4. Sony has had a leg up by being the "base" platform. I think some of that is changing. EA is using the Xbox as that this gen. And so far more games are in the works for the 360 than PS3 (160 vs 102).

5. It don't mean squat if you don't have the names...

And Sony has some killers of course. GTA. GT. DMC. MGS. FF. Ratchet & Clank. Jak. Twisted Metal. Wipeout. Tekken. Ace Combat. etc.

And so far, from the little we have seen, Sony is introducing those new franchises all perked up in "Next Gen" looking graphics to the nth degree.

I think MS has exclusives, just not as many proven franchises. And only a handful (GOW, Oblivion, PGR3, Kameo) can really be called "next gen" at this point.

It is a matter of perception, and as I posted the other day part of it is philosophy. It would be fool hearty to assume Sony wont have stinkers--with cross platforming that is guaranteed! What Sony has done--and evident in your feelings--is give you a FELLING that their titles are better and their console more powerful. Facts are irrelevant to a customer if they SENSE something.

Sony has been very selective about the footage they show, when, and how--and has shut everything else up. MS has gone more of a spray and pray approach. Obviously Sony's approach is effective.

What I find more interesting is Ninja Guiden--MS should have locked that up. And Bizarre working with Sega (Daytona/Sega Rally?). MS would have been smart to snatch them up as well.

Factor5 is another. Not that their games are great, but it would have offered some exclusives. NEVER underestimate the power of a HOT looking Starwars!

Really, if MS wanted to steal Sony's thunder though, it requires one game:

GTA.

I dislike the series personally, but GTA + Halo... That would be a major coup.

And there is always this: New Franchises. They bring new life and gameplay. Games like Kameo!

It is cheaper and there is always a good chance for a killer title. GTA did not take off until PS3 (there were 2 PC versions before). Halo is new this generation. PGR is new last gen as were Jade Empire and Forza, and GOW is a totally new IP.

Obvisouly exclusives is a Sony strength. If you like those exclusives there is no reason to wander far from Sony unless MS snags one of your favorite ones--which I find unlikely.

 

[London Geezer]

It also needs to be said that the old Japanese and American sides seem to be carried over to the next gen machines.
It's getting better, but most of Sony's exclusives are Japanese games. Most of MS games are American made, sports, FPS's, MMORPGs.
It seems the developers of each territory still have some sort of preference over where they put their exclusives.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Personally I think that the xbox is just hitting its stride and x360 could have afforded to come out in 06. Additional engineering on the 360 subsystem, higher operating profits for the xbox division for one more year, addtional developer time on current hardware and addtional prep time for next gen, probably lower cost/higher quality production (65nm versus 90?)... would all add up to a ferocious but stronger for MS re-entry to the market.

Every advantage a delay would give MS would also give Sony the same advantage. If anything launchibg early works better for MS. Both Sony and Nintendo said they felt they were being rushed into next-gen. They obviously wanted more time to work on future systems and 65nm would probably have been a bigger benefit to Cell then XB360.

And as for ' higher operating profits for the xbox division for one more year', the XB division runs at a loss. That's why MS are ditching the old money-hole XB1. I can't remember any other console developer stopping hardware production of the old model as soon as the new was available. They normally run the old model concurrently at a lower price. XB1 was and always will be a loss maker. They had one quarter of profitability due to Halo2 and that's the best XB1 will ever manage in terms of financial success. running XB1 another year would'a just lost MS a shedload more money.

 

[Acert93]

I think the X360 is in a much better place that the first Xbox was.

Very true. For going into their 5th year they are doing very well, relatively. The $4B down and only 22M units sold are not what they had hoped, but they have momentum and a solid strategy.

And if anyone remembers their initial support... I was not impressed. I think a lot of devs expected them to fail. Now they have a ton of support.

Your point on exclusives is also very good--there will be fewer and fewer.

And consider this: Since the 360 is out of the gate first and may have a large install base after fall 2006, from a business perspective it would seem wise to include them.

In the past it made sense to go PS2 only. They DWARFED MS/Nintendo in sales. But if I am, say, Rockstar and I am looking at the Xbox 360 with 10M units and PS3 with 12M units, do I really want to cut off 10M users?

Especially when I just spent $50M making my game

Personally, if it were me, and I had a killer exclusive app I would be asking Sony and/or MS why I should remain exclusive. And asking I mean, "Show me the money". Unless they are paying for the exclusive there is little point remaining an exclusive... at least right now.

Early gen software can be killer... to companies. It costs a LOT ot make the games and there is a small install base. If you can double the possible customer by hitting 2 platforms it makes too much sense unless you are getting serious kick backs (or distrust the other company... which I think is a hurdle MS has in Japan).

 

[digitalwanderer]

And a Xmas all alone! that is if MS can get enough units in the shops to be picked up easily. If there are shortages, the advantage will be nullified. MS need to maximise their output very quickly cause PS3 is around the corner. Still, Sony will have trouble meeting demand too for a while so i guess MS do have some time in their hands to sell a few million units.

Do we know when PS3 is launching yet? And I agree about M$ having to be able to meet needs.

 

[Titanio]

They shouldn't have cut back on first party development/publishing, for starters. They've been quite open about that strategy. But first party titles are guaranteed exclusives, and MS has hacked away at that department. Charity starts at home, as they say. There's something wrong when your competitor has announced a fair few more first party titles for its machine than you have for yours, and you're coming 6 months earlier (don't get me started on the state of original first party dev across both machines either..).

 

[London Geezer]

Do we know when PS3 is launching yet? And I agree about M$ having to be able to meet needs.

PS3 is slated for a "spring 2006" worldwide release. Meaning, worst case scenario, it will be summer till i can go to a shop and pick one up from the shelf, if i'm lucky.

Unless it's delayed that is, which at this point i find unlikely since everything is on schedule.

 

[Phil]

I been wondering what it will take for MS to survive the onslaught that will be PS3. The power, the exclusives, the hype will go a long way toward makeing PS3 a successful console if not the most successful ever.

For MS they may have lost the power esge this round, the hype isnt nearly as strong as for PS3 and the exclusives...... arent really there.

Personally I think of think of two games series that MS should have cordoned off as MS exclusives a long time ago: Prince of Persia and Splinter Cell.

PoP could have been MS's God of War level exclusive. Now its a multi platform series... SC was and is the definitive competitor to MGS. Both games are multiplatform while both PS competitors are exclusive.... how in the world can you compete against a company like Sony when their system has nearly all your games and then a whole host of games that are exclusive?

Dont say Halo either cause... some of us folks who own Xboxen cant (in my case) or wont buy Halo ever. Im not an FPS guy.

/rant

I think basically, the more successful one console appears to become, the harder it is to get exclusive content for your console. It's all about the money after all and publishers ask themselves "where can we make the most money - is it on platform A that appears to have such userbase R and the chances are X that we'll get Y amount of money, or is it platform B that has we estimate will have a userbase of M and the chances are H to make Z amount of money?"

Developing games is expensive, it's an investment. It's also a risk (will the game make money, will we break-even?). As such, publishers attempt to go through with calculated risks -> which is basically a risk, but the chances are high of breaking-even and making money. Calculated risks are also based on realsitic estimates - market analysis etc. At the moment, hype is all around the PlayStation platform, so naturally, it also is the least risky platform to develop on simply because everyone is assuming it'll end up with the largest userbase again. Xbox360 is a higher risks because it has a relatively uncertain target group (we don't know for sure what people are buying these games, at the moment, the average joe is a PlayStation customer while the majority of Xbox users are users that own a PlayStation or are ex-PC-gamers and an uncertain amount of average-joes), so developers rather just port to it and see what happens.

The less popular your console is, the more expensive it is to convince developers to develop for it. It also means that the price goes up for buying exclusive content.

I see the Xbox in this position - it's clearly the underdog and perception is clear that just about everyone expects it to be less popular than the next PlayStation. Another reason for little exclusive content is the problem I've argued a couple of months ago and that is, that the next Xbox console is coming quite early - arguably too early. The PlayStation 2 which has an amazing userbase is at its peak momentum at the moment - it has a userbase closing in on a 100 million users, each developer that has made games for it, already has an extensive library of assets and code that can be recycled which brings down the development cost for those developers and publishers. The PS2 userbase is very lucrative at the moment, so many are of course wondering if they should jump the gun and bring their exclusive content to the new expensive next gen consoles or simply milk the existing userbase on PS2 a little longer. Rising development costs on next generation consoles does is a significant factor - one they would definately pass over if they see the opportunity to make more money on an existing userbase that's cheap as dirt compared to the new systems.

And yet, we do see exclusive content slowly coming - and there are a few reasons for that: with new hardware come new possibilities - and new possibilities (in gameplay mechanics) allow for good marketing ("hey look, we can do THIS now, forget the old stuff"). Being quick to market also means you have less competition and could make yourself a valuable brandname (for franchises), which could in turn give an advantage a few years down the line. It is an investment after all.

And still, Xbox is suffering and I see the prime reason in its timing: for exclusive content to be appearing now for launch or a bit later, those games should have started development a few months ago - in the prime time of the lucrative PS2 market. Not a good idea. On the other hand, because PS3 is the next big thing anway, many publishers are simply thinking "why not wait for PS3 which is the next big thing and milk the PS2 userbase while we still can?". This is for a large part why we're seeing low-profile games coming to the Xbox first - they're cheap and yet they allow the development teams of building up assets, libraries, know-how and experience that will inturn bring down the costs of development a few years down the road. Exclusive content will come if hype picks up around the Xbox and publishers recognise that they can make a lot of money on that console (more money than on PS3) - if Xbox fails to pick up though, it won't get far beyond the point is already was this generation - with 3rd party support basically from a few PC houses and getting ports from the main platform of choice.

 

[Acert93]

PS3 is slated for a "spring 2006" worldwide release. Meaning, worst case scenario, it will be summer till i can go to a shop and pick one up from the shelf, if i'm lucky.

When did that happen? I have been in and out, but all I ever heard was Spring 2006. Nothing about "world wide" or any specifics even where.

That would sure change the playing field.

 

[seismologist]

It costs alot of money to make games exclusive. Except in Sony's case they get alot of freebies with games aimed at the Japanese audience. Then some of these end up getting localized.

 

[Lysander]

I totaly disagree with blackjedi. It`s better to have few but good, than a lot but crap. Sony is putting to much resources in "real time" cinematic, not much gameplay. And ps3 games appeals mostly to japs market, I think. If nothing else, X2 is like high end PC for affordable price, that`s something.

 

[Titanio]

Sony is putting to much resources in "real time" cinematic, not much gameplay.

D-, must try harder.

You really think Sony's devs sit around all day making movies?

I'd also say about 2/3 of Sony's announced PS3 games are overtly aimed at Western markets, and the rest won't do any harm there either.

 

[Lysander]

You really think Sony's devs sit around all day making movies?

yea...

 

[Acert93]

You really think Sony's devs sit around all day making movies?

Just like PS2 devs were working on technical demos. Oh, wait...



No seriously, ANYONE who thinks Sony is wasting their time on "movies" has to re-assess their view of the market. Games have CGI intros, and movies are GREAT advertising.

We are not seeing much of that from MS because their devs are under a crunch to get games out. Some of the PS3 games, like KZ or MGS, may not even come out in 2006. So they have a LOT of time. Something MS does not have.