When will Nvidia finally get out of the NV30 rut?

[Joe DeFuria]

Theoretical question here: if that rumor on the IBM limited run of only 10,000 units is correct, and no tapeout of Nv40 at TMSC has occured yet, how long would it be before people can actually buy a 6800 at a store?

Even the Nv30 had a reported run of about 100,000 and those were kinda rare, so most 6800's will probably end up with devs or on ebay, right?

My prediction: NV40 meets the same fate as NV30. Boards will trickle out for a couple months so starting in July...mostly as the GT variant, with some as the Ultra. (And of course, the dozen or so Extreme boards.)

Supply will be tight therefore prices relatively high. NV40 non-ultra is cancelled completely, and never sees the light of day.

In late July there will be some "leaks" about the NV45 and NV41. They will launch in late august to replace the NV40 SKUs.

 

[Kombatant]

Theoretical question here: if that rumor on the IBM limited run of only 10,000 units is correct, and no tapeout of Nv40 at TMSC has occured yet, how long would it be before people can actually buy a 6800 at a store?

Even the Nv30 had a reported run of about 100,000 and those were kinda rare, so most 6800's will probably end up with devs or on ebay, right?

My prediction: NV40 meets the same fate as NV30. Boards will trickle out for a couple months so starting in July...mostly as the GT variant, with some as the Ultra. (And of course, the dozen or so Extreme boards.)

Supply will be tight therefore prices relatively high. NV40 non-ultra is cancelled completely, and never sees the light of day.

In late July there will be some "leaks" about the NV45 and NV41. They will launch in late august to replace the NV40 SKUs.

I really hope that's not the case (although to be honest I fear it will be). I don't think nVidia can handle another NV30-o-rama all over again... and we need good competition in the field imho.

 

[DemoCoder]

The 10,000 unit only run rumor is false.

 

[MrBond]

"Gamer" OEMs will be willing to sacrifice heat and power just to have the latest and greatest. Always has been, always will be (Alienware prominently featured the 5800 too didn't they?). For their market, there *is* a demand for that sort of unit.

Now Dell might not be willing to go so far with their XPS systems. Dell's always struck me as a more conservative OEM, and I seem to remember someone saying that Dell was ATI's biggest customer anyway.

I wouldn't expect Hpaq or Gateway to be jumping at joy for the prospect of bundling a beast like the 6800U though. I'm sure they'll work it out if the think it's profitable to them.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I really hope that's not the case (although to be honest I fear it will be). I don't think nVidia can handle another NV30-o-rama all over again... and we need good competition in the field imho.

Well, at least NV40 is a decent chip. nVidia actually has a pretty long history of the "first version" of new gen tech being shaky. It's just in the last two cycles (NV30 and NV40), that they've really had to push hard to get the follow-up out as soon as possible because they had competition.

 

[Maintank]

They look about equal this time around. I dont see how Nvidia is still in the rut unless you are expecting the old days of R200 vs Ti4600 where ATIs top end card was barely worthy of budget card status.

I think those days are long gone.

 

[Maintank]

My prediction: NV40 meets the same fate as NV30. Boards will trickle out for a couple months so starting in July...mostly as the GT variant, with some as the Ultra. (And of course, the dozen or so Extreme boards.)


I highly doubt it. Nvidia wants to regain the middle ground again and if they delay the 6800s all they have is 5900s to fight ATI with and that wont cut the butter for the next 6 months.

NV45 will probably be out in Sept timeframe which means oct availability at the earliest.

 

[Kombatant]

I really hope that's not the case (although to be honest I fear it will be). I don't think nVidia can handle another NV30-o-rama all over again... and we need good competition in the field imho.

Well, at least NV40 is a decent chip. nVidia actually has a pretty long history of the "first version" of new gen tech being shaky. It's just in the last two cycles (NV30 and NV40), that they've really had to push hard to get the follow-up out as soon as possible because they had competition.

It's not a matter of shaky tech, as you said; it's a matter of nVidia not being able to have volumes out on time. It keeps on happening and I can't for the life of me understand why.

 

[Stryyder]

My prediction: NV40 meets the same fate as NV30. Boards will trickle out for a couple months so starting in July...mostly as the GT variant, with some as the Ultra. (And of course, the dozen or so Extreme boards.)


I highly doubt it. Nvidia wants to regain the middle ground again and if they delay the 6800s all they have is 5900s to fight ATI with and that wont cut the butter for the next 6 months.

NV45 will probably be out in Sept timeframe which means oct availability at the earliest.

The next two months will have X800 pro on the market with no cards from NVIDIA till late June/July whcich means they are losing a lot of sales time to ATI which is not good for them at all especially as the OEM's will start gobbling immediately.

 

[trinibwoy]

The next two months will have X800 pro on the market with no cards from NVIDIA till late June/July whcich means they are losing a lot of sales time to ATI which is not good for them at all especially as the OEM's will start gobbling immediately.

When you really take a look at the big picture you have to ask ..... WTF is Nvidia doing!!??

You're behind in the performance battle, you launch your next gen part first only to ship it after the current leader's next gen part which on top of everything is at least equal or faster than your next gen.

Poor Execution. It doesn't matter to me much since I'll be holding onto this 9800Pro for a bit but the fact is that Nvidia takes away from the quality of the final product with these yield and availability issues. Sheesh.

 

[Moose]

The next two months will have X800 pro on the market with no cards from NVIDIA till late June/July whcich means they are losing a lot of sales time to ATI which is not good for them at all especially as the OEM's will start gobbling immediately.

This will mean another entire generation of Ps2.0 cards on the market before a single Ps3.0 card is out.

Not exactly the best situation if you want to convince developers to start using Ps3.0 over Ps2.0.

BTW does anyone know when DX9.0c will be released????

 

[Joe DeFuria]

It's not a matter of shaky tech, as you said; it's a matter of nVidia not being able to have volumes out on time. It keeps on happening and I can't for the life of me understand why.

Right...to clarify, when I say "shaky" I don't mean in an architectural sense. I mean in a "they could have probably really used another spin or two before releasing it, but decided it was better to meet some schedule instead."

1) The original TNT shipped at 90 Mhz, not the advertised 125
2) Original GeForce shipped at much lower clocks than expected, and wasn't true 4x2, which I speculate was the true target.
3) GeForce3: Ran late...nVidia launched an unexpected Geforce2 Ultra instead.
4) NV30...no comment.
5) NV40...lots of rumor of yield issues...(launching first, shipping last, etc.)

 

[MfA]

I think maintaining backwards compatibility through redundant hardware rather than emulation is killing them.

 

[Maintank]

The next two months will have X800 pro on the market with no cards from NVIDIA till late June/July whcich means they are losing a lot of sales time to ATI which is not good for them at all especially as the OEM's will start gobbling immediately.

Then I guess the expected ship dates of the last week in May are incorrect?

I wouldnt expect to see any kind of volume of X800 cards until June so the cards will be out around the same time. The Early July rumor is just that and this seems to be the standard rumor everytime a card comes out.

If the 6800 doesnt show up until July(3 months after initial reviews) I will be wholly surprised.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

I highly doubt it. Nvidia wants to regain the middle ground again and if they delay the 6800s all they have is 5900s to fight ATI with and that wont cut the butter for the next 6 months.

The middle ground has nothing to do with the NV40.

The high end of the middle ground $200) will continue to be fought with the 5900s and 9800s, and the low end of the middle ground ($125-$175) with 9600s and 5700s. That will continue until this fall, when presumably both ATI and nVidia will launch new chips to compete in the "middle ground" arena.

 

[Maintank]

Without the 6800 all Nvidia will have is a 5900 that will be worth about 175 bucks.

That is the point I was trying to make.

 

[Joe DeFuria]

Without the 6800 all Nvidia will have is a 5900 that will be worth about 175 bucks.

That is the point I was trying to make.

OK...I don't know why you mentioned anything about regaining the middle ground though.

As one would expect of any company, nVidia is counting on a certain degree of FUD to combat the shipping X800s...just like they did with the NV30. Launch it...and count on "consumers will wait until our product comes out before considering buying our competitors." It works to a degree...especially if consumers think your cards are really coming "very soon"...even if in reality they aren't. Of course, there is a large risk...in that if when you finally do ship, your product is perceived as inferior...you've got trouble.

 

[Maintank]

I know my wording was borderline horrible on that. The 5900s will drop to about 175-200 bucks or should. And without the 6800 line they will be eaten alive.

 

[jvd]

The next two months will have X800 pro on the market with no cards from NVIDIA till late June/July whcich means they are losing a lot of sales time to ATI which is not good for them at all especially as the OEM's will start gobbling immediately.

Then I guess the expected ship dates of the last week in May are incorrect?

I wouldnt expect to see any kind of volume of X800 cards until June so the cards will be out around the same time. The Early July rumor is just that and this seems to be the standard rumor everytime a card comes out.

If the 6800 doesnt show up until July(3 months after initial reviews) I will be wholly surprised.

well best buy in parmus new jersey has x800pros in stock . Was there today.

 

[joe emo]

saw two of them on the shelf at the best buy in Tucson, AZ.