When are the next technical cost reductions going to happen? spawn

Yep. Profitable hardware means money in the pot. As long as people are paying the asking price, keep the asking price, and only drop it when you have to.
$299 is a much better price to hold at than $399.

$299 Q4/2015 and then hold price for ~2 years.
 
$299 is a much better price to hold at than $399.
Not if people are still buying at $399. If the console is still yet Sony drop they price, they're just throwing away $100 profit on every box! The price-drop is only needed when interest starts to wane and you want to reach a new, more price-conscious (cheap ass) demographic.

At launch and $399, Sony appealed to Innovators who wanted the tech regardless of software. Q4 2014, $399 can hold significant value for Early Adopters if the software is there to justify the purchase. Ergo, a price drop isn't a foregone conclusion. PS2 maintained launch price for 18 months and two holiday seasons, for example, because demand was there.
 
Not if people are still buying at $399. If the console is still yet Sony drop they price, they're just throwing away $100 profit on every box! The price-drop is only needed when interest starts to wane and you want to reach a new, more price-conscious (cheap ass) demographic.

At launch and $399, Sony appealed to Innovators who wanted the tech regardless of software. Q4 2014, $399 can hold significant value for Early Adopters if the software is there to justify the purchase. Ergo, a price drop isn't a foregone conclusion. PS2 maintained launch price for 18 months and two holiday seasons, for example, because demand was there.

Well holding out too long can kill your momentum. What you want is a smooth transition and landing on the new price point. In that case, a little early is preferable to late.
 
$299 is a much better price to hold at than $399.

$299 Q4/2015 and then hold price for ~2 years.

I don't see any reason to expect a $100 cut from Sony, they have no need to go thru that kind of pain. 2 $50 cuts gets you to the same place over a more extended time period and with less pain.
 
PS2 maintained launch price for 18 months and two holiday seasons, for example, because demand was there.
I'm suggesting that they only cut price Q4 next year, so Nov 2013 to Sep-Nov 2015 is 22-24 months at $399 and is actually longer than the PS2 lasted before it's first price cut.

Also I fully expect them to start bundling from Q4/2014 onwards before implementing the price cut next year.
 
GDDR5 chips can be configured as 16bit (clamshell in pairs) or 32bit wide (normal).
Current PS4 is 16 chips 16bit
Next one would be 8 chips 32bit
So in theory those chips could could offer a total of 176x2=352GB/s memory bandwidth?

Given that there is memory contention issues with these apuis giving greater than 1:1 diminishing bandwidth to the gpu for each GB of bandwith used by the cpu, are there power/microarchitecture and/or cost issues which prevented them from running in 32bit mode?
 
Clamshell mode works by having two GDDR5 devices share the same command lines and split the normally 32-bit bus between them.
In the PS4, one of the GDDR5 chips in each pair mirrors its counterpart on the other side of the PCB, and each one claims 16 bits of data bus for itself.

Basically, two different chips act like they are a single double capacity chip. The actual bandwidth total is the same as if there were just one chip with all 32 bits to itself.
In reality, it's actually slightly slower since the electrical interface is no longer as clean with another chip hanging off of some of the shared lines. The capacity upgrade has been pointed to as a reason why memory speeds went down from 6.0 to 5.5 Gbps.
 
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