When are the next technical cost reductions going to happen? spawn

[Wynix]

With Microsoft introducing a kinect-less XB1 at the same price as the PS4, I imagine that this puts some pressure on Sony to reduce their own price so they can continue dominating the NA and UK markets.

Is it possible for them to cut costs enough to drop the PS4's price $50 before christmas?

Also how long will it take Hynix/Samsung to develope 8Gb GDDR5 chips, and then how long before we start seeing them in PS4's?

Spoiler

I ask because i plan to hold off buying a PS4 until it gets a few changes, they are:

1] 8Gb GDDR5 chip (that is double the current 4Gb chips).
2] Die shrink; 20nm/16nm/14nm any is fine I just want less heat and power consumption.
3] Smaller console, likely the "Slim" update.
4] Fully White PS4 and controller(black buttons and sticks are acceptable), not this ugly 2 colour scheme they are using on the "red" and "blue" controllers.

 

[Brad Grenz]

I doubt there will be a slimmer version of the PS4 any time in the next 3 years. The PS4 isn't a monstrosity like the PS3 was. They aren't tap dancing as fast as they can to bring down price, weight and size. Frankly, I would not expect any price cut before late 2015.

 

[upnorthsox]

16 months seems about right, so that'd be around April 2015. That could change if MS has another price cut though.

 

[Betanumerical]

With Microsoft introducing a kinect-less XB1 at the same price as the PS4, I imagine that this puts some pressure on Sony to reduce their own price so they can continue dominating the NA and UK markets.

Is it possible for them to cut costs enough to drop the PS4's price $50 before christmas?

Also how long will it take Hynix/Samsung to develope 8Gb GDDR5 chips, and then how long before we start seeing them in PS4's?

Spoiler

I ask because i plan to hold off buying a PS4 until it gets a few changes, they are:

1] 8Gb GDDR5 chip (that is double the current 4Gb chips).
2] Die shrink; 20nm/16nm/14nm any is fine I just want less heat and power consumption.
3] Smaller console, likely the "Slim" update.
4] Fully White PS4 and controller(black buttons and sticks are acceptable), not this ugly 2 colour scheme they are using on the "red" and "blue" controllers.

You are going to be waiting a while for this one imo.

 

[Wynix]

You are going to be waiting a while for this one imo.

I'm likely to buy one in late 2015, I think the odds of the slim model releasing and it having a price-cut are quite good.
I remember reading somewhere about the development time of the 8Gb GDDR5 being ~1 year.
Also 20nm and 16nm will be readily available by late 2015, 16nm might not be worth it at that point due to no die size reductions over 20nm and the higher costs.

A PS Slim model after 2 years is not far fetched by any means, and if Sony utilise the two improvements listed above in 2015 then it is pretty much a guarantee.

 

[upnorthsox]

Sans an early slim by MS to drum up sales, I'd be mildly surprised if there is a slim launched before Sept. 2016.

 

[McHuj]

I personally wouldn't expect either company to move to a new node until that node has been mature for a while so yields are pretty good and power consumption of the new node is well understood.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I'm likely to buy one in late 2015, I think the odds of the slim model releasing and it having a price-cut are quite good.

I don't think so.
Sony has been struggling with losses for many years.
If the PS4 keeps selling half as well as it sold until now, they'll just use the lower BoM to gain/increase their profit margins.

The console is already pretty slim (The PS4 is smaller than the PS3 Slim), 20nm/16FF could take several years to be adopted after it's made available (some companies have complained about TSMC's lackluster price/die area for the 20nm transition) and 8Gb GDDR5 chips won't make that much difference in power consumption.

I think the only substantial difference between buying a PS4 now and in late 2015 will be that you'll get your console one and a half years later

 

[MrFox]

I think they'll skip 20nm and wait for 14nm to mature.

8gb chips will happen when GDDR5 reach 20nm-class, that will naturally allow a lower voltage, so less power for both the PHY and the RAM. Smaller ram die size means lower cost. It would also simplify the motherboard airflow. It will also allow devkits with 16GB ram.

In any case, whatever AMD's plans are for their GPU line, Sony is probably following them closely. That means HBM.

After they moved to 8gb chips, I'm betting on 14nm plus HBM in 3 years. That would make a huge difference in power, even if there's little cost saving in the main SoC. Smaller power supply, smaller fan and heatsink, along with a much simpler and smaller motherboard.

 

[Pixel]

until bandwidth per chip doubles, won't they have to keep the same # of chips for bandwidth sake? putting in half as many gddr5 chips @ 8gb would decrease bandwidth wouldn't it?

unless they can get double the bandwidth from these new 8gb chips. Sure cpacity might increase, but I doubt there will be a doubling of bandwidth even with a node shrink to 20nm, or 14nm because as I've learned on these boards trace distance needs to shorten and I doubt doubling the traces to each gddr5 chip is actually something that is implementable or real or would yield any benefit.

 

[MrFox]

until bandwidth per chip doubles, won't they have to keep the same # of chips for bandwidth sake? putting in half as many gddr5 chips @ 8gb would decrease bandwidth wouldn't it?

unless they can get double the bandwidth from these new 8gb chips.

GDDR5 chips can be configured as 16bit (clamshell in pairs) or 32bit wide (normal).
Current PS4 is 16 chips 16bit
Next one would be 8 chips 32bit

 

[Grall]

I wonder if clamshell mode allows more RAM pages to be open, and if so, if the PS4 utilizes this feature or not...

 

[MrFox]

I wonder if clamshell mode allows more RAM pages to be open, and if so, if the PS4 utilizes this feature or not...

It shouldn't change in theory. The two chips are not accessed individually, they are operated in parallel and each chip gives half the data word (so the banks are doubled in size). The commands should be exactly the same between a pair of 4gb and a single 8gb.

 

[Grall]

Okay! Thanks for the awesome explanation. Cheers!

 

[eastmen]

Next year I bet you'll see the xbox one at $300 and in 2016 you'll see an xbox one slim at $200 and a new high end xbox at $400 .

I bet they will dump the one as quickly as possible like the first xbox . The one as it drops in price could be good as a cable box and low end console (just reduce resolution of the new games )

 

[Wynix]

It will also allow devkits with 16GB ram.

This is something I overlooked, will this give developers a noticeable advantage over the current 8GB dev kits?

 

[eastmen]

This is something I overlooked, will this give developers a noticeable advantage over the current 8GB dev kits?

I dont' think it will give them much , there is already a reservation in place and full games can only use 5 gigs or so of the ram to being with , which aside from the os reservation allows all tools to run in the unused ram while debugging.

I guess you can fit more tools in the extra 11 gigs instead of 3 gigs ?

 

[Brad Grenz]

16 months seems about right, so that'd be around April 2015. That could change if MS has another price cut though.

If MS is dropping the price AGAIN in the next 10 months that just means the Xbox One is so unthreatening to the PS4 Sony will have no reason to react. It will be like the PS2 generation where they can set their own schedule concerning price reductions.

 

[eastmen]

If MS is dropping the price AGAIN in the next 10 months that just means the Xbox One is so unthreatening to the PS4 Sony will have no reason to react. It will be like the PS2 generation where they can set their own schedule concerning price reductions.

It all depends. If xbox one sales don't pick up and catch the ps4 and they cut again and sony stays , it might allow the one to catch up. After all there has to be a tipping point where the xbox one becomes more attractive just on price alone.

Then you have Nintendo , does the wii u stick around past 2014. If a new Nintendo console comes out in 2015 the ps4 might not be the most powerful kid on the block.

Nintendo has a great releationship with amd. So an 8 core puma+ at 2ghz + (the 4 core hits 2.2ghz at 4.5w) and a GCN 2 part could actually put Nintendo close to the price of the current gen consoles next year and offer more performance and actually use less power .

Then of course , MS can release an xbox 2 in 2016 and target 1080p (or 1440p) use the next gen amd cpu they are developing for that time frame and a GCN 3 part . And try and squeeze sony between the two systems.

Better looking games on the 2 at higher res and lower res games on the one but at a much lower price point. Would force sony to either release their own new console .

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Please stick to only technical cost reduction ideas (costs of components and manufacturing). Business discussion belongs in other threads in other forums.