When are the 65nm PS3's and XB360's shipping?

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No. You can't do that without alienating existing customers, unless you have an upgrade path. If a higher memory PS3 does come out, the memory will only be used by Linux and maybe the OS if you're lucky. Although there's zip the OS is doing that should be comstrained on 512 MBs RAM. Linux is just there for hobbiests, and 200 MB RAM is plenty for that.
This is no different from releasing a new PPC Mac. I personally expect a higher-spec PS3 appear, but not so soon as this 65nm transition. Kutaragi mentioned PS3 for AV users with double RAM, and Kawanishi said they modeled PS3 as the format that changes its hardware spec. In this interview he says it's possible a new higher game format appears while maintaining the compatibility with the current format.

When it's possible to run a current 720p/30 game in 1080p/60 with a new model, they can release it. Then game developers can code their games just like PC, but with 2 models in mind. The PS3 hardware spec has standard parts and the OS is abstract enough. So there'll be no PS4, but only PS3++. Or Cell PC as it's the substance of this format.
 
This is no different from releasing a new PPC Mac. I personally expect a higher-spec PS3 appear, but not so soon as this 65nm transition. Kutaragi mentioned PS3 for AV users with double RAM, and Kawanishi said they modeled PS3 as the format that changes its hardware spec. In this interview he says it's possible a new higher game format appears while maintaining the compatibility with the current format.
I don't recall that specific interview. This would be a first for consoles, and IMO a bit of a waste of time. As a CE device, PS3 as is is great. As a workstation, you'd want a good deal more RAM and faster hardware wouldn't go amiss. The market for such a device aren't really going to be playing games, are they?! Plus you need the software. There's no point releasing such a machine at it's increased pricepoint, unless software compatibility means they can sell a handful at high profit to hardcore gamers.

I'm going to remain very skeptical. A Cell workstation, probably. With the PlayStation name? I don't think so. That'd be Kutaragi messing up his own ideaology of a WorkStation for Work and a PlayStation for Play! The rest of Sony won't be behind a new better PS3++ either unless there's real money in it. Better to release the one PS3 SKU as cost reduced. Only if they can charge a good premium for a more profitable machine would it make sense. ie. If PS3 is $300 to make and sold at $300, and they can make a 1 GB machine for $330 and sell it at $375, it might appear.
 
I'm going to remain very skeptical. A Cell workstation, probably. With the PlayStation name? I don't think so. That'd be Kutaragi messing up his own ideaology of a WorkStation for Work and a PlayStation for Play! The rest of Sony won't be behind a new better PS3++ either unless there's real money in it. Better to release the one PS3 SKU as cost reduced. Only if they can charge a good premium for a more profitable machine would it make sense. ie. If PS3 is $300 to make and sold at $300, and they can make a 1 GB machine for $330 and sell it at $375, it might appear.
Yeah the economic thing comes first, they have to have commercial success for the current PS3 format before the next venture. But the PS3 format is flexible enough, for example the chip fabbing process is shared with IBM and others unlike PS2, the GPU is a standard PC GPU + the standard GDDR RAM with FlexIO slapped, the interfaces are all PC standards, the OS is not on a game disc but in a console and it can use HDD too, etc. etc. Now it's up to the software side to maintain the compatibility (Kawanishi is the software platform head). The relevant section, the fifth part of the above link (Dec 19 of the last year) is like this:
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2006/1219/mobile360.htm
Is the hardware spec of PS3 locked, or not?

There's another important thing to tell the future of PS3. That's the question of whether the PS3s sold in the future have the locked hardware spec for all versions or raise their spec gradually.

If the general computer aspect in the PS3 is craved strongly there will be occasions where the spec has to improve in future as times change. However if they want to emphasize the game console aspect, it's more preferable that the price goes down with a locked spec, a larger install base, and a larger margin as a game-playing platform.

"Even at the present time I think the spec is not necessarily locked. The area where hardware difference can be covered by software is growing. Till now, there was the necessity that the last one drip of the performance is squeezed out of the locked hardware spec, and the premise was that the hardware behavior is not changed even to the slightest point. But the PS3 is planned and developed by the thought that we want to change the spec in the future." says Kawanishi.

But a policy like this is hardly accepted by game vendors. With the same hardware supplied continually, vendors feel secured to devote their efforts on that platform while accumulating the know-how.

On this point, Kawanishi responds "I think we have to make it a platform that can support differences in performance and spec. For the case of PS3, in addition to softwares supplied on BD, there are titles installed in the HDD. Also there are contents on broadband connection, some are cached on the HDD too. The bandwidth and latency between PS3s connected via network will be different. Decent compatibility has to be maintained in a certain scope including the difference in the bandwidth and latency. Among these efforts, an ascending spec is not much a problem (unlike a descending spec)."

Then does it mean the PS3 as a game format is locked and PS3 contents such as a game with the same standard runs more richly and smoothly on a future hardware? Or, will there be a new format for a future PS3 such as a format for PS3 Second Edition?

"With more hardware performance, it's possible that the game format also reaches a higher version. Of course the compatibility with the older PS3 is maintained, but on a higher machine you can have a better experience in a scalable way. In other words, the game itself will be the same one though there are different parts depending on hardware performance in the future environment." (says Kawanishi)
 
Yeah the economic thing comes first, they have to have commercial success for the current PS3 format before the next venture. But the PS3 format is flexible enough, for example the chip fabbing process is shared with IBM and others unlike PS2, the GPU is a standard PC GPU + the standard GDDR RAM with FlexIO slapped, the interfaces are all PC standards, the OS is not on a game disc but in a console and it can use HDD too, etc. etc. Now it's up to the software side to maintain the compatibility (Kawanishi is the software platform head). The relevant section, the fifth part of the above link (Dec 19 of the last year) is like this:
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/2006/1219/mobile360.htm

Very interesting read indeed.

One very obvious and simple way to upgrade the PS3 would be to use a Cell with all 8 SPEs working. Then what could an extra SPE be useful for? I think there are quite a few useful things the OS could harbour. For example the extra SPE could provide the power to decode/encode some video chat streams in a few small windows while you are playing some other games. If they make the extra SPE available to games, some games may use it to boost some particle simulation or some other nice fx.

If Sony brings back the extra HDMI port they could have those video streams on a separate screen. I don´t think an extra HDMI port would add much extra cost.
If they have two TMDS transmitters integrated in the RSX when shrinked to 65 nm, they would actually add some redundancy which could help the yield.
According to this the G71 had 2x dual-link DVI TMDS transmitters. One can speculate the reason why they were not integrated in the 90 nm RSX, could be due to the unfinished HDMI standard or just a matter of die size.

The rumoured "reserved" 32 MB of GDDR3 RAM could be useful for an extra frame buffer if an extra HDMI port is added.

If they add memory I think the XDR RAM is the RAM that will get boosted first, because it will provide most flexibility. Like it would allow you to have a web browser running in parallel with your game in a separate window and such and it would really make the PS3 a more versatile and powerful Linux workstation at the same time.

Of course if they doubled the size of both the main and the video memory that would be awesome. Somehow I doubt they will change the video memory without changing the spec of the RSX, and I personally don´t think that is very likely as it would put even more burden on the developers. I don´t even think the RSX has been completely introduced yet, the discrepancy in the die size between the G71 and RSX leaves plenty of open questions. But hey, if they can do it without adding much extra work for the developers, why not? The more the merrier.
 
Of course if they doubled the size of both the main and the video memory that would be awesome. Somehow I doubt they will change the video memory without changing the spec of the RSX, and I personally don´t think that is very likely as it would put even more burden on the developers.
I don't know how "raw to the metal" libGCM is, but if it works OK with G80, I suspect they can replace RSX. All points about different PS3 models depend on how thick the software layer of PS3 is.

Oh, and before it gets too offtopic, it's possible that the CPU infinite stall bug of the 90nm Cell B.E. is fixed in the 65nm Cell B.E.
 
I don't know how "raw to the metal" libGCM is, but if it works OK with G80, I suspect they can replace RSX. All points about different PS3 models depend on how thick the software layer of PS3 is.
From the comments of Barbarian, nAo and DeanoC the software layer seems pretty thin. They have been talking about splitting the GPU register file over separete threads for efficient bandwidth utilisation, clever ways to avoid branching or compensate for slow branchng, clever tricks to change constant values etc. As the G80 is a brand new architecture a lot of those optimisations would go down the drain and at the same time you would not be able to take full advantage of the strengths of the G80, without having two versions of shader code.
If they will indeed change the RSX, I think it would be more of the same, like higher clock frequencies and/or more shader units, perhaps faster memory interface.

It would be interesting to know at what point in time would this make sense? Would it happen when Microsoft and Nintendo are introducing their next generation of consoles. Would Sony just flesh out a PS3++ allowing more eye-candy at a lower prioce-point than the competition or would they do it much earlier like within the next two years?
 
Some clarifications from Sony Computer Entertainment spokesperson Satoshi Fukuoka:

Rumors have abounded that Sony could introduce an 80GB hard drive-equipped PS3, but there is no confirmation on whether or not such a product would come to market.

He added that other component tweaks outside of a hard drive upgrade are also a possibility. “We are not likely to change its core components and functions such as the Cell, RSX [graphics processor], Blu-ray drive and network capability. But outside that realm, addition and deletion is quite possible.â€￾

If Sony has shipped around 6 million PS3 world wide as promised, there are quite a few units in the channels. I wonder if Sony still has the production lines going full throttle or if they have halted or slowed down the production to clear out some of the inventory and in the mean time concentrate on cost reduction such as introducing the 65 nm Cell and possibly 65 nm RSX.
 
They tease us with releasing 65nm 360's much later :devilish: :cry:

Price drops during the holiday season would be great definately. With the anticipated titles out by then(or close to release), theres plenty for the mainstream crowd to choose from :D

Though one must wonder if MS will retain the "lets keep selling it at the $400 pricepoint" tactics :|
 


hm... so my question is... Is MS going to contract TSMC to produce 65nm eDRAM in addition to the 65nm Xenos (call it 65/65 for GPU/eDRAM) ? This pertains to NEC's ability to follow their own roadmap, which shows a step down from 90nm to 55nm directly for eDRAM; I originally presumed that we would see 65/55. Perhaps we may see 65/65 and then 65/55 when NEC is ready.

(Does my question make sense? :???: )

Edit: I get the impression that TSMC has only made a 65nm ES for the main die, not the daughter die.

So I guess my question is more of... would they even bother switching to TSMC for 65nm eDRAM for ~8 months and then switch back to NEC who should have 55nm mass production by end of calendar 2007.
 
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Personally, I am interested to see if there is a accompanying redesign of the 360 with the 65nm chips with an eye towards increasing the reliability of the design. If they can address their issues with the hardware failure rate, they stand to save a good deal of money that they are currently losing on warranty replacements and repairs. This may allow for the price cut that does seem overdue.

Redesign+Price Cut+Halo 3 = Big 4th Quarter for the 360.
 
I think MS said there's a 6 week period after a console comes out of the factory and when it's sold so the new 360's should be soon.
 
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