Would have easily jumped to PS4 if they'd fixed PSN and kept multiplayer free. I think Live is going to perform better, and they're priced the same, so Live wins out for me. Fortunately, I'm in a position where the $100 price difference on the launch is inconsequential to me, but I know it won't be for a lot of people. On principle, I support the disc model on PS4 for trading, lending, and selling. I'm not convinced publishers won't find their own way to control the used game market, because they've been so vocally opposed to it. Microsoft has Kinect bundled, which is something I want. Motherflippers didn't include boxing in Kinect Rivals, but I'm going to hold on to the hope that someone will do it right. I don't think Eye will be a realistic replacement since it is not bundled. Online requirement for Xbox One is not a problem for me. Pervasive online features is actually a selling point for me. So far, I think Microsoft has shown exclusive games (timed or total) that are of more interest to me.
So, I decided to go the Xbox route. I can easily see the thing getting trounced in the marketplace. I don't like to make predictions, but if that happens I'll just take it as an opportunity to quit gaming. My gaming is diminishing more and more, and this is probably my last hurrah for being a person that puts in significant time.
Edit: I would like to add that I decided I'd only buy one console this gen. Last gen I bought all three. The decision is not so much to do with money as it is about limiting how much time I spend playing games. If I wasn't trying to limit my time, I'd be buying both an X1 and a PS4.