Warner Exclusive Blu-ray= More PS3 sold?
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There's a couple of other possibilites:
1) Digital distribution, doesn't have to be online only. They could offer retail kiosks that allow purchase of titles via some kind of storage device like memory cards or hard drives or download off wireless hot spots or off Live.
2) New competing optical discs like FVD, VMD, DMD, HVD, or UDO are more than capable of the task.
3) Combination of #1 and DVD or HD-DVD. Buy a starter disk and get the rest of the content via Live or wireless hot spots.
4) Create their own proprietary optical disc.
All of these ideas are based on the premise that Microsoft doesn't care about the official HD optical format used for movies. So far they haven't really seemed to care other than their attempt with the HD-DVD player. I'm sure if they think they can get away with not supporting Blu-ray they'll do so.
Tommy McClain
If they don't care about HD movie playback, the next Xbox having a HD DVD drive would be a brilliant move... it would pretty much eliminate piracy, since no one would have a HD DVD burner once the movie format died off. Now with 51gb discs, it'll be plenty of room for games.
As for more PS3's sold, I would guess so, since they're the best BR player on the market. It won't help game sales however, which is where Sony are really up the creek this generation.
As for more PS3's sold, I would guess so, since they're the best BR player on the market. It won't help game sales however, which is where Sony are really up the creek this generation.
Here's a few pitfalls with this:
- Anything based on digital distribution depends on a valid internet connection to ultimately authenticate it. Hence why I wasn't able to play Robotron a week or so ago when XBLive was down
Or, what happens if your internet connection goes down? People won't be too happy when they can't play their games due to drm failure.- Forgoing optical media means a hdd or very large flash memory will need to be built into the console, artificially elevating the consoles cost somewhat. They can't depend on people having their own memory cards, the console will have to be able to play a game out of the box.
- If they ever want to tap into the casual market then they can't assume that the entire population has their console internet aware.
This is good and bad. Good because it will making pirating their games very difficult as Shifty alluded to earlier. Bad because it will be unable to play all those cool hd blu-ray movies that my neighbors are enjoying.
In the end Microsoft isn't interested in just being in the games space. They want to control your tv and all media thats delivered to it, preferably with recurring fees. This will force them into being flexible. They can't just turn their back on a tech that requires them paying royalties to Sony if the big picture demands that they support it. Look at the recent addition of Divx support. Three years ago if you told me MS and Sony would be supporting Divx on their consoles I'd have said you are insane. Well, Divx of all things now works. Looking 3 years ahead, does Microsoft want to be shut out of the optical hd movies market completely? I personally don't think so. Then again I was wrong about them supporting Divx so who knows!
I'm personally a big skeptic of digital distribution replacing optical media anytime soon. I don't know about y'all, but I like to trade movies with friends, resell them, play them in the car, etc, all things that are made much more difficult if not impossible in a digital distribution only world. Same with games. I like to sell my games when I'm bored with them, something which is impossible with downloaded content. Hence why I buy the bare minimum online.
Well developers are suppose to hate the secondary market for games.
But as consumers, the convenience of portability is hard to beat. Media also offers a more robust form of storage than hard disks or flash, not to mention cheaper.
The other thing I would add is that if you don't distribute your games through retail, what incentive do they have to carry your consoles, which have very minimal margins?
They need to sell games to drive traffic as well as boost margins.
If Xbox720 does comes out with HD-DVD drive, their games will cost more to produce (compared to BR) as they'll be one of a few if not the only product utilising the technology.
Oh yeah that's a great point, totally forgot about that one! It's also important from a leverage point of view. Right now if a publisher wants to sell their game their distributer deals with Fry's, Best Buy, Target, etc... With so many outlets there's no way for one to strongarm them by for example jacking their endcap costs by 300%, etc.
In a fully digitally distributed world, Microsoft and Sony effectively become god. Pay us 10x more to be put on page one on XBLive. Don't want to? Sure no problem, we'll put you on the back of page 28. What can you do about it? Jack squat. Strictly speaking, competition between Microsoft and Sony should prevent something like this. But still, the thought of all control being in the hands of two companies is a bit creepy.
You expect the X720 to come out in 3 years?
I'm sure you realize this now, but come next gen, it is likely that Universal and Paramount will have already switched over to Blu Ray, thus leaving Microsoft to be the only company placing orders for HD DVD production. It's a tad different than Sony's current situation because all other studios are making their orders for BD manufacturing besides themselves (for PS3 games).When there are limited companies producing a certain product, the chances are that product will cost more, relative to similar products in a much larger market. In 3-4 years time if BR is the norm, then they'll be apporaching the cost of DVD today, whereas HD-DVD will not drop dramatically due to the lack of mass market.
Even today in large quanities, the 25GB BR is cheaper than the comparable 30GB HD-DVD.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_high_definition_optical_disc_formats#Disc_construction
MS might be better off going with BR for the next Xbox and have more options in a number of fronts this way.
Here's a few pitfalls with this:
- Anything based on digital distribution depends on a valid internet connection to ultimately authenticate it. Hence why I wasn't able to play Robotron a week or so ago when XBLive was down
Digital distribution DOES NOT have to require an Internet connection. Look to the multi-billion dollar calling card market for evidence of that. Take your storage device to a retailer to get your game transferred and authenticated. Or the system could implement a secure smart card reader.
Tommy McClain
Its going to be a damn long time before BR discs are ever anywhere near as cheap to produce as DVD discs are now. Of course that is all relative as we are talking about a dollar or so at the high end. The point is that paying an extra dollar or whatever it is per disc that Sony is paying over DVD now isn't really a deal breaker. It would probably be cheaper for MS to use HD DVD than it would be to create some new format and use that, but that is also certainly a possibility. They could also buy some other format, who knows.
Wii already uses a full-size dual-layer DVD (12cm). Did you think Wii games are still on a 8cm disc like GC ones?
If Wii 2 keeps the same form factor as Wii, the current DVD drive in Wii is the limit of the acceptable spec for Nintendo in terms of speed and noise. It's very unlikely Wii 2 keeps the same DVD drive as Wii and stays SD with the halt of analog TV broadcast around 2010. A BD drive enables them to port Xbox 360 games to it with all localization contents included thanks to the straightforward architecture of 360 with SMP CPU, AMD GPU with eDRAM, and UMA.
I doubt "cheapest" can be applied to red laser drives in 2010 or later. With the probability of BD becoming a single standard now, the speed drive manufacturers phase out production of red laser drives has only increased. Replication cost is the same thing, the difference will be negligible (See CD and DVD today). Also Nintendo have to think about the next 5 years after 2010 for Wii 2.
The only possibility it will have a red laser drive is when Nintendo takes online distribution as a really serious business for them and assigns a more budget for an internal flash storage or HDD.
Ken Kutaragi FTW!!!
If this does spell the end of the HD format (it'll take a miracle for HD-DVD to bounce back from this!), do you think we'll see KK back in the winners circle of the SONY exec's? All the flack that he copped for the production of the PS3, from high pricing (largely due to the inclusion of BD), to the launch delays (due to BD tech), and him generally standing by his design choices even though they (may have) ultimately cost him his job...?
Oh well - this is good news for SONY, for the BDA, and I'm sure KK has a big "I told you so!" grin on his face!
If this does spell the end of the HD format (it'll take a miracle for HD-DVD to bounce back from this!), do you think we'll see KK back in the winners circle of the SONY exec's? All the flack that he copped for the production of the PS3, from high pricing (largely due to the inclusion of BD), to the launch delays (due to BD tech), and him generally standing by his design choices even though they (may have) ultimately cost him his job...?
Oh well - this is good news for SONY, for the BDA, and I'm sure KK has a big "I told you so!" grin on his face!
quest55720
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I think both nintendo and MS would be smart to go to hd-dvd next gen or other non standard format. By next gen blu writers and media will be affordable to all the pirates out there. Hell they can even do a dual drive blu/hd-dvd like there is on the PC if they wanted movies. Blu for movies and hd-dvd for games.
I am not sure MS will even want a movie player next time around. I think they will be heavy in to pushing their downloadable content. A blu drive would just hurt sales of downloadable movies/tv shows.
Also I just don't see the need for movies in the next gen consoles. By the time 2011 rolls around standalone blu players should be sub 100 dollars. If a person really wanted to play blu movies they would just buy a standalone player. The reason no DVD play back has not hurt nintendo at all. If you want a DVD player go get a 30 dollar one at walmart.
Even if the drives cost 30-40 dollars more and media costs 4x as much it would still be worth it to limit pirates.
The 360 sells a ton of games I could only imagine how many more it would sell if there was no pirates. I also think nintendo is suffering with the Wii being cracked so fast.
I am not sure MS will even want a movie player next time around. I think they will be heavy in to pushing their downloadable content. A blu drive would just hurt sales of downloadable movies/tv shows.
Also I just don't see the need for movies in the next gen consoles. By the time 2011 rolls around standalone blu players should be sub 100 dollars. If a person really wanted to play blu movies they would just buy a standalone player. The reason no DVD play back has not hurt nintendo at all. If you want a DVD player go get a 30 dollar one at walmart.
Even if the drives cost 30-40 dollars more and media costs 4x as much it would still be worth it to limit pirates.
The 360 sells a ton of games I could only imagine how many more it would sell if there was no pirates. I also think nintendo is suffering with the Wii being cracked so fast.
Do you really think Nintendo and/or MS going HD-DVD or getting their own proprietary format will stop piracy? I think that's just wishful thinking. I'm sure if they choose to do so, they'll sell more software than the PSP - yet, look how quickly the PSP got cracked. And as long as people are unwilling to pay for something, there'll be pirates. Period.
And I don't know if everyone will be so willing to move onto yet another platform (downloadable content) by the time the next consoles hit. It'll be too soon, BD (or the winning HD format) would really be just starting to take over DVD's, and downloads will greatly limit movie studios ability to reach a truly global audience, as I don't think the internet will be ready to handle large downloads (say 25GB...wow!) at a realistic speed (not take days!), at a decent cost to the consumer (I'm speaking in relation to NZ as opposed to the setup in the US - we suck Big Time!). I think the only thing that'll stop MS from putting in a BD drive in the next XBOX is pride.
And I don't know if everyone will be so willing to move onto yet another platform (downloadable content) by the time the next consoles hit. It'll be too soon, BD (or the winning HD format) would really be just starting to take over DVD's, and downloads will greatly limit movie studios ability to reach a truly global audience, as I don't think the internet will be ready to handle large downloads (say 25GB...wow!) at a realistic speed (not take days!), at a decent cost to the consumer (I'm speaking in relation to NZ as opposed to the setup in the US - we suck Big Time!). I think the only thing that'll stop MS from putting in a BD drive in the next XBOX is pride.
Both BR and HD-DVD share a problem for next generation consoles (PS4, Xbox3) - if the system memory is increased to 2GB, the data transfer rate won't be able to keep up and we'll be forced to have several minutes of load times. This is unacceptable, even the current 10-20 second load times are far too much.
An integrated HDD drive, or a few GBs of flash memory to install/cache data might help, but I don't think it'd be enough. Consoles should be about simplicity and quickness, and this means that the hardware engineers will have to find a better solution than stuffing in an even larger capacity optical drive.
An integrated HDD drive, or a few GBs of flash memory to install/cache data might help, but I don't think it'd be enough. Consoles should be about simplicity and quickness, and this means that the hardware engineers will have to find a better solution than stuffing in an even larger capacity optical drive.
I don't see this as causing more PS3s to be sold.
Within my circle of techies, friends, coworkers, former coworkers, I'm the only one to even "toy around" with HD Media. I'm also the only one who does not own an XBox 360. All of them already had an XBox 360 or got one for Christmas. We're talking close to 40 families here. Their family's gaming preference is a mix between Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360 and the Nintendo DS for portable gaming.
I've talked to a few of them about Warner going BluRay. Some of them were tempted to pickup the Xbox 360 HD-DVD addon at $129, however none of them will now. They indicated they have no intent to purchase the PS3. Their children have no interest in it and they have no interest in it. They also indicated their price point for a new HD Media player is $100 or less. None of us figure this to occur before summer 2009. That's the earliest they see them getting into the new HD Media, as we don't see MS coming out with a $129 XBox 360 BluRay addon.
Granted, the PS3 is a great deal if you have an interest in using it to play games. It's a bonus that it's also the best price/performance BR player. However, as soon as you discard the gaming aspect (no interest), the PS3 as only a BR player is not appealing to most -- especially not at the current $400 price-point.
As for myself, I likely wont pickup a BR player until one's available with the latest and greatest profile for $150 - $200 price range.
I think this 'end of the format war' will likely see the majority of current the HD DVD owners sitting out as consumers of HD Media Titles and likely DVD Media too. I don't know if the number of new HD Media consumers will be enough to offset the old HD DVD owners who may become non-consumers. I would not be surprised to see the overall sales figures of all HD Media to drop.
Within my circle of techies, friends, coworkers, former coworkers, I'm the only one to even "toy around" with HD Media. I'm also the only one who does not own an XBox 360. All of them already had an XBox 360 or got one for Christmas. We're talking close to 40 families here. Their family's gaming preference is a mix between Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360 and the Nintendo DS for portable gaming.
I've talked to a few of them about Warner going BluRay. Some of them were tempted to pickup the Xbox 360 HD-DVD addon at $129, however none of them will now. They indicated they have no intent to purchase the PS3. Their children have no interest in it and they have no interest in it. They also indicated their price point for a new HD Media player is $100 or less. None of us figure this to occur before summer 2009. That's the earliest they see them getting into the new HD Media, as we don't see MS coming out with a $129 XBox 360 BluRay addon.
Granted, the PS3 is a great deal if you have an interest in using it to play games. It's a bonus that it's also the best price/performance BR player. However, as soon as you discard the gaming aspect (no interest), the PS3 as only a BR player is not appealing to most -- especially not at the current $400 price-point.
As for myself, I likely wont pickup a BR player until one's available with the latest and greatest profile for $150 - $200 price range.
I think this 'end of the format war' will likely see the majority of current the HD DVD owners sitting out as consumers of HD Media Titles and likely DVD Media too. I don't know if the number of new HD Media consumers will be enough to offset the old HD DVD owners who may become non-consumers. I would not be surprised to see the overall sales figures of all HD Media to drop.
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There is a certain irony in the digital distribution arguments being put forward here. All of the advocates seemingly accept that is impossible to download 1080p movies with 6 channel audio on todays cable connections. They then say "well it doesn't have to just be online, you could use stores or kiosks", and introduce a media format at that point.
This is no different to walking into a rental/retail store and walking out with a BluRay/HD DVD disc! What's more, the arguments make it more complicated by introducing 'authentication' (along with some secure device which can be authenticated) instead of just handing over your rental card and paying $5.
This is no different to walking into a rental/retail store and walking out with a BluRay/HD DVD disc! What's more, the arguments make it more complicated by introducing 'authentication' (along with some secure device which can be authenticated) instead of just handing over your rental card and paying $5.
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