Those 200$ Samsung phones are the equivalent of using a Switch as a primary home console.
Looking at a 3090 it already struggles trying to add multiple ray traced effects to last gen visuals. Usually requiring 1080p-1440p to attain 60 fps. If we assume the next 3 shrinks before we cap out at 1 nm each allow the typical 50% performance improvement we end up with a GPU nearly 3.5x as fast as the 3090. I don't think that speedup is nearly enough to get us away from relying primarily on rasterization. What if these new GPUs keep increasing their power draw as Ampere did? Where do consoles slot in on the performance scale? What if prices continue to rise every generation and the GPU performance at a mass market price point continues to decrease? All of these are legitimate issues.
Yes but the point is there is a market from the low end to the ultra high end. It doesn't exist in the console world. So lets say your right. Lets say we get to the last micron shrink and we are stuck. Why can't there be that $200 cheap console and then that $1,000 ultra high end console the size of a mini fridge ?
When we hit a wall things will expand in size again because we will still need performance. In my office for example everyone has a surface book 3 that they bring to and from work. in the future if we can't shrink it , then cpu sizes will get larger and then devices will get larger. I can see us going back to having a desktop that can deal with the power and cooling requirements needed for larger hotter chips.
As for your thoughts on raytracing and if we will get good enough performance... well there is always smarter ways to do something. We don't know if the technology currently being used for raytracing is the optimal way of doing it. So you can see much bigger gains in the future over just adding more ray tracing units.