THQ predicts 2006 for next gen

[nonamer]

It's you vs Toshiba.

Toshiba: 1

You: 0

Look ma! I can make a scorecard too!

Common sense: 1

You: 0

Did I accomplish anything? No. Did you?

Either way your comparason is off the mark as they are mass producing something using 65 nm transis starting late 2004, with obviously limited production until then.

So... why again would you see one of PS3's fabs built, ready to go, and then have the product out 2 years later? We're talking about a console here remember.

Simply because you "have" it, doesn't mean you should use it. It could everything from implementation limitations, low clockspeeds, overheating, or heck, high rate of defects. *points to graphs* How am I "off the mark" on this? IMO you're "off the mark." Just because a process is in "mass production" has no meaning. 65nm actually producing a commercial product in 2004 is simply insane. IBM will just start, I repeat just start, producing something in 90nm in late 2004. Same with just about everyone else except Intel. So are you saying that Sony will just "skip" 90nm, beating everybody by a year or more. That's "off the mark." A lot of other things have to be right before you would ever produce something. My graph shows that this can take years. I suspect the same for Toshiba/Sony, given I'm talking about Intel, not some lowly foundry, taking 2 years of wait time before producing on a new process. Being a console makes even worse since you absolutely need a large quantity at launch. This will delays things even more. You can speculate a 2005 launch all you want, I won't say your dead wrong but I will say its unlikely and I believe it won't happen. But if you're going to say they're going to mass produce these things in 2004 I will say you're dead wrong, cause you are .

 

[notAFanB]

Being a console makes even worse since you absolutely need a large quantity at launch. This will delays things even more.

eh? they will need what amounts to around 1 million units for an Asia launch. is this outside the realms of possibility?

 

[nonamer]

Being a console makes even worse since you absolutely need a large quantity at launch. This will delays things even more.

eh? they will need what amounts to around 1 million units for an Asia launch. is this outside the realms of possibility?

Of course not. What I'm saying is that a few thousand units paper launch is out of the realm of possibility, which a CPU or GPU maker could do.

 

[Josiah]

usually fabs have to be producing at near full capacity to be economical (arbitrary example: making 100,000 chips of which only 100 are free of defects is not good business). it's possible that Toshiba will use the new fab for some other purpose until they get their process fine-tuned to handle a larger chip (which is definitely Cell). it works both ways: having a fab sit idle is a waste, and having a fab spend resources just to make defective chips is a waste. remember these companies are in the business of making money, which is always priority #1.

the other alternative is for them to absorb the loss and get by producing whatever they can. maybe that was the plan all along, but if 65nm proves more of a problem than they expected it will mean they lose more money and might also mean shortages and high prices for PS3. it DOES seem like a bad business decision, as far as cost/benefit goes, which is why it's kind of hard to believe.

 

[Panajev2001a]

If your goal is ultimately high performance and high volumes ( PlayStation 3 is not expected to sell in low volumes ) there is enough justifcation to move to newer and newer manufacturing processes.

Toshiba wil make sure Oita #2 is not kept idle

Josiah, when they meant starting mass-production Toshiba meant around 20,000-25,000x300 mm Wafers per month which is a bit more than 100,000 chips per month as I assume more than 4 chips per 300 mm Wafer.

 

[cthellis42]

Heck, they probably WANT reasonable-but-low numbers at launch, as they can get their product out quicker, demand will surge prices and spurn more demand, the press will be all over every aspect of launch, developers will be spurned to work harder and earlier and are attracted themselves by the demand... Things only backfire if MANY other aspects are unprepared or sorely sub-par, and even the PS2 fought through that with flying colors. (And I see them covering many of the flaws of the PS2 and with its launch.) Plus, the faster they push things that are still within their comfort barrier, the harder they push Microsoft and Nintendo to rush more on their consoles (which could cause problems and cut performance) or start competing much later (which is beneficial as well).

There are certainly many things that could push Sony back as well, but from the information we can see so far, a late 2005 launch is plausable and in many ways desirable, so...? <shrugs> As always the details will fill in as we go along, but I'm certainly not willing to bet against it.

 

[Vince]

IBM will just start, I repeat just start, producing something in 90nm in late 2004. Same with just about everyone else except Intel. So are you saying that Sony will just "skip" 90nm, beating everybody by a year or more. That's "off the mark."

Last I checked, IBM was in production of 90nm at E. Fishkill (you can look for pressreleases) and Sony/Toshiba were starting production of the 90nm EE+GS.

But, perhaps being "off the mark" is a relative term

 

[Paul]

How am I "off the mark" on this? IMO you're "off the mark." Just because a process is in "mass production" has no meaning.

Again, It's Toshiba VS you. This is what they say they are doing.

Need I remind you that they are going to MASS PRODUCE a chip with 65 nm transis in late 2004? Go read the PR. Or are they lying? Give me a direct answear on this one.

But if you're going to say they're going to mass produce these things in 2004 I will say you're dead wrong, cause you are .

Not quite, You see, I have evidence on my side. All you have is your own personal speculation.

 

[nonamer]

How am I "off the mark" on this? IMO you're "off the mark." Just because a process is in "mass production" has no meaning.

Again, It's Toshiba VS you. This is what they say they are doing.

Need I remind you that they are going to MASS PRODUCE a chip with 65 nm transis in late 2004? Go read the PR. Or are they lying? Give me a direct answear on this one.

Ok, they're lying.

 

[Paul]

That's all you had to say

It's crazy I know, but until they say otherwise I'm going on their word.

Every other article says that "Cell" is going into production 2004 also and SCE said themselves they would have Cell in devices 2005. This was in august.

 

[Sonic]

A CELL device does not specifically mean a PS3 game console. It could very well be dev kits for PS3 to be sent to developers. It could be practically anything that Sony or Toshiba wants to use CELL for other than PS3. Chances are it will be for some other type of device and a scaled down CELL chip in order to let the process mature and then start throwing the big gun in there.

THQ might not be the ace developer around the world, but they are far mor knowledgable on when the next generation will ship then any one person on this board not in the industry. And from them it's nothing but speculation like it is from us.

Toshiba can mass produce CELL chips all they want, but that doesn't mean Sony will launch it in 2005. If they do, I would opt for late 05 and have factories keep manufacturing CELL chips in order for a nice supply for a worldwide launch. We're going on something Toshiba has stated and is in an article or two. That does give us solid evidence that CELL will begin production in 04, but any number of things can happen until then. Sony could decide to announce the specs of PS3 and then see hwat MS and Nintendo have in store, decide to wait it out a little bit and then up the specs if the .65 process is more mature allowing higher clocks. Sony knows what it's doing, and they may decide to milk the PS2 a little longer and get off the ground with the PSP and establish that first.

 

[Panajev2001a]

A CELL device does not specifically mean a PS3 game console. It could very well be dev kits for PS3 to be sent to developers. It could be practically anything that Sony or Toshiba wants to use CELL for other than PS3. Chances are it will be for some other type of device and a scaled down CELL chip in order to let the process mature and then start throwing the big gun in there.

THQ might not be the ace developer around the world, but they are far mor knowledgable on when the next generation will ship then any one person on this board not in the industry. And from them it's nothing but speculation like it is from us.

Toshiba can mass produce CELL chips all they want, but that doesn't mean Sony will launch it in 2005. If they do, I would opt for late 05 and have factories keep manufacturing CELL chips in order for a nice supply for a worldwide launch. We're going on something Toshiba has stated and is in an article or two. That does give us solid evidence that CELL will begin production in 04, but any number of things can happen until then. Sony could decide to announce the specs of PS3 and then see hwat MS and Nintendo have in store, decide to wait it out a little bit and then up the specs if the .65 process is more mature allowing higher clocks. Sony knows what it's doing, and they may decide to milk the PS2 a little longer and get off the ground with the PSP and establish that first.

This post made a lot of sense IMHO: especially the part I bolded ( which is what they did with the original Emotion Engine: they presented a 250 MHz Emotion Engine [January 1999 at an IEEE conference] and probably a Graphics Synthesizer clocked at 125 MHz was kept behind closed doors, then they worked some more on the chips and increased EE's clock speed to 300 MHz and GS's clock speed to 150 MHz ).

 

[Megadrive1988]

A CELL device does not specifically mean a PS3 game console. It could very well be dev kits for PS3 to be sent to developers. It could be practically anything that Sony or Toshiba wants to use CELL for other than PS3. Chances are it will be for some other type of device and a scaled down CELL chip in order to let the process mature and then start throwing the big gun in there.

THQ might not be the ace developer around the world, but they are far mor knowledgable on when the next generation will ship then any one person on this board not in the industry. And from them it's nothing but speculation like it is from us.

Toshiba can mass produce CELL chips all they want, but that doesn't mean Sony will launch it in 2005. If they do, I would opt for late 05 and have factories keep manufacturing CELL chips in order for a nice supply for a worldwide launch. We're going on something Toshiba has stated and is in an article or two. That does give us solid evidence that CELL will begin production in 04, but any number of things can happen until then. Sony could decide to announce the specs of PS3 and then see hwat MS and Nintendo have in store, decide to wait it out a little bit and then up the specs if the .65 process is more mature allowing higher clocks. Sony knows what it's doing, and they may decide to milk the PS2 a little longer and get off the ground with the PSP and establish that first.

absolutely a rock solid post, Sonic. It takes into account how little we know, in Oct 2003. it allows for many possibilities, rather than blindly stating that 'this, this, and this will happen at that time'.