THQ predicts 2006 for next gen
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I'll let you pull the trigger.
However, I'm not wrong. LET me guess, Sony is going to sit on PS3's chips for a year and a half? "Roofles" It doesn't work that way. When you have a bleeding edge IC, you launch it ASAP.
Fall 2005 launch, although I'm open to the fact that there well could be a worldwide launch. Maybe for the USA and japan anyway.
However, I'm not wrong. LET me guess, Sony is going to sit on PS3's chips for a year and a half? "Roofles" It doesn't work that way. When you have a bleeding edge IC, you launch it ASAP.
Fall 2005 launch, although I'm open to the fact that there well could be a worldwide launch. Maybe for the USA and japan anyway.
Paul said:
Sony's not going to sit on PS3 chips for a year and a half; because they won't have any! At least till late 2005 anyways. The more I hear about how intel's screwing it 90nm process, the less confidence I have of Sony, or anyone else for that matter, to release 65nm in significant quantity by 2005.
Megadrive1988
Veteran
being that the soonest the next gen consoles could come out, is LATE 2005 , there is nothing wrong in predicting 2005 or 2006, because we are only talking about a few months difference here. And in Oct 2003, it is simply too far away to nail down the exact timeframe. so as of now, the next gen consoles are coming in 2005 or 2006 8)
Paul said:
I must say Paul that doesn't make sense to me. I don't think Sony or Toshiba will have mass production quality PS3 chips by 2004. Perhaps emulators and whatnot but not the 'real' thing. It only takes a few months to ramp up and store enough stock before a launch not a whole year. Inventories filling up with processors that are not to be used for over a year is economic suicide even for a company of Sony's size.
Anyway... we shall see what happens, just need a little patience.
We're not on the same page.
I said that Toshiba will be mass producing PS3's chips late 2004.(chips based on 65 nm fab process "to be used in sce products" DUH
)People are making the argument that Sony will have no PS3 chips because of the fact that they could get horrible yields and such.
I say that They will have upwards of a year production(I'm assuming a late 2005 launch).
Paul said:
We're not on the same page.
I said that Toshiba will be mass producing PS3's chips late 2004.(chips based on 65 nm fab process "to be used in sce products" DUH
People are making the argument that Sony will have no PS3 chips because of the fact that they could get horrible yields and such.
I say that They will have upwards of a year production(I'm assuming a late 2005 launch).
Ridiculous. 90nm would be barely out by then. Thinking 65nm mass production starting anytime in 2004 is smoking crack.
I guess Toshiba lied then when they said mass production of 65 nm chips(Cell) in the latter half of first half of FY2004.
The fab will be done in January, with limited production the whole year up until mass.
http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2003_04/pr2101.htm
The fab will be done in January, with limited production the whole year up until mass.
http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2003_04/pr2101.htm
Paul said:
Or as the corporations call it, stretching the truth.
Let me give you some advice. Look at this picture:
While it's about defect density, you can infer from this when a process is available (assuming that a process must exist in order for a graph of defects could exist). Look at the 90nm process. You see that they have data going back to 1Q 2002. Intel still hasn't produce a commercial 90nm chip, and probably won't in any serious quantity until 1Q2004 at the earliest based on lastest info. That's two years from when a process was ready until the launch of something on the process. If Sony does about the same for 65nm, then you see a 1H 2006 launch. Get the picture (no pun intended)?
It's you vs Toshiba.
Toshiba: 1
You: 0
Either way your comparason is off the mark as they are mass producing something using 65 nm transis starting late 2004, with obviously limited production until then.
So... why again would you see one of PS3's fabs built, ready to go, and then have the product out 2 years later? We're talking about a console here remember.
Toshiba: 1
You: 0
Either way your comparason is off the mark as they are mass producing something using 65 nm transis starting late 2004, with obviously limited production until then.
So... why again would you see one of PS3's fabs built, ready to go, and then have the product out 2 years later? We're talking about a console here remember.
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