The "what is a successful game?"/"are exclusives worth it?" cost/benefit thread

[Laa-Yosh]

Comparing the significance of GOW3 to Halo Reach, and belittling MS exclusives in general, is what's wrong IMHO when we're talking about a title that's quite likely far from becoming a big hit.

And exclusives failing to sell aren't much of a reason to buy a PS3, are they? I definitely would not be getting a console for them and then not play those great games.
The reality is that far more people are interested in the PS3 to play COD MW2 - more than those interested in UC2 and KZ2 combined.

Exclusives are kinda overrated IMHO. Microsoft has sold far more units with less titles (better ROI) and still they're moving away from them, because platform monopoly is hopefully over and multiplatform titles are far far more important to gamers.

 

[Carl B]

Comparing the significance of GOW3 to Halo Reach, and belittling MS exclusives in general, is what's wrong IMHO when we're talking about a title that's quite likely far from becoming a big hit.

I agree. Halo Reach is going to be a monster hit, there is no doubt in my mind. The answer to that sort of false thinking though isn't to start billing titles that only sell in the low millions as 'failures' that will have the studios plugs pulled on them, when in all honesty any title that sells over 1M at/around launch in my book is probably a 'success' on some level.

 

[deepbrown]

Comparing the significance of GOW3 to Halo Reach, and belittling MS exclusives in general, is what's wrong IMHO when we're talking about a title that's quite likely far from becoming a big hit.

And exclusives failing to sell aren't much of a reason to buy a PS3, are they? I definitely would not be getting a console for them and then not play those great games.
The reality is that far more people are interested in the PS3 to play COD MW2 - more than those interested in UC2 and KZ2 combined.

Exclusives are kinda overrated IMHO. Microsoft has sold far more units with less titles (better ROI) and still they're moving away from them, because platform monopoly is hopefully over and multiplatform titles are far far more important to gamers.

Gamers who avoid the best games of the year and play a game like MW2 only...don't really deserve the console . And who's belittling MS exclusives?

MS might have sold more copies of games, but they haven't sold more units this year. They're almost 2 million units behind worldwide for 2009. And the reason is...there weren't many great exclusives. 2010 will be a much better year for the 360 because the line-up is significantly stronger - Splinter Cell, Alan Wake, Mass Effect 2, Fable 3, Halo Reach, Natal...

 

[assen]

Gamers who avoid the best games of the year and play a game like MW2 only...don't really deserve the console .

Oh cmon there's no reason to get snobby. I think people who played Gran Turismo, sports, quiz and singing games didn't really deserve the PS2, but I'm keeping it to myself - and without them, the console wouldn't be what it was.

And the reason is...there weren't many great exclusives. 2010 will be a much better year for the 360 because the line-up is significantly stronger - Splinter Cell, Alan Wake, Mass Effect 2, Fable 3, Halo Reach, Natal...

No, the reason is they had a small/no price cut, and Sony had a significant one. Exclusives don't sell consoles, price cuts sell consoles - and the reason 2010 will be a better year IMHO is that there will be a price cut to go along with Natal.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Heh, now it's my turn to agree with you, assen

 

[deepbrown]

Oh cmon there's no reason to get snobby. I think people who played Gran Turismo, sports, quiz and singing games didn't really deserve the PS2, but I'm keeping it to myself - and without them, the console wouldn't be what it was.

No, the reason is they had a small/no price cut, and Sony had a significant one. Exclusives don't sell consoles, price cuts sell consoles - and the reason 2010 will be a better year IMHO is that there will be a price cut to go along with Natal.

I'm not being snobby - I'd know they'd buy the games if they knew how good they were

The Xbox 360 had a $100 price cut.

There's still the fact that the PS3 is still more expensive than the Xbox 360, quite significantly in the UK (£159 vs £249) and a price cut will only favour one console in the short term - but the sales are continuing. Many people are picking the PS3 OVER the Xbox 360 and they're not doing that because it's still more expensive.

Moreover, even if they don't buy Uncharted 2 - Drake's brand is all over PS3 advertising at the moment - this brand and the library shown next to the PS3's is what sells it and distinguishes it from the competition. Just like Master Chief and Xbox are tied hand in hand. The statement that "exclusives don't sell consoles" is absurd.

Edit: And can someone PLEASE make Laa-Yosh a Senior Member already - he no doubt deserves it!

 

[Scott_Arm]

Nintendo should have that new Metroid game by the Ninja Gaiden people, Mario Galaxy 2 and that Warren Specter Mickey Mouse game. Pretty solid lineup actually.

Microsoft gets Halo, Fable 3, Alan Wake(fall?), Natal

I haven't kept up on what Sony will be releasing near the end of the year.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Despite my attitude before and around its release, I think a big reason to buy the PS3 now is that it can play bluray movies... It's in fact cheaper then most dedicated players, it's going to be 3D enabled, it isn't loud or hot like the 360, and it can play all the big mass appeal games except Halo. For many, that single franchise isn't as important as HD movies (and despite the Netflix and other stuff on X360, BR is still a better experience).

(Ironically, my collegue who's always been a PS2 fan (he had the first console in the country) has decided to sell his PS3 some months ago and keep the X360 instead. The reason: he hated the mandatory HDD installs. He said he didn't want to have a PC (home computer is a Mac))

 

[assen]

The Xbox 360 had a $100 price cut.

Wasn't it more like, the Pro disappears, the Elite is now the same price as the Pro used to be? This is more like a free 60 GB upgrade than a $100 price cut.

Many people are picking the PS3 OVER the Xbox 360 and they're not doing that because it's still more expensive.

Yes, the sales difference in Europe is stunning. I don't think they make a "value comparison" between the two and buy because the PS3 is the better value; I think the additional sales this year came from people who wanted a Sony console, period, and the new price point "unlocked" that market. You know, the people who bought Sony DVD players to match the Sony TV to match the Sony HiFi to match the Sony speakers to match the Sony walkman etc ... A large portion of them don't even know there's an Xbox 360, let alone you can play many of the same games, or that some are even slightly better. Around here (Sofia, Bulgaria) the electronics shops don't even sell Xboxes or games for them; they only sell Sony and Nintendo products. (You have to go to a PC shop to buy an Xbox 360 or games for it.)

Similarly, I expect the Natal and the related price cut to bring new sales not because it makes the console a better value vs. the Wii or the PS3, but because it will unlock new segments of the market, people who don't consider themselves "gamers" but can stomach a cool toy for an almost-impulse-buy price.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Again, the dude payed a lot of money to get a PS2 imported from Japan at the release.

re assen: exactly, we have Panasonic shops, Sony shops, but no Microsoft shops... PS3 is also selling on the brand power of the PS2. Then again I'd like to see some real sales data from the holidays before we draw conclusions...

 

[deepbrown]

Again, the dude payed a lot of money to get a PS2 imported from Japan at the release.

re assen: exactly, we have Panasonic shops, Sony shops, but no Microsoft shops... PS3 is also selling on the brand power of the PS2. Then again I'd like to see some real sales data from the holidays before we draw conclusions...

Still don't think it's irony

 

[Richard]

Let's get back to the topic at hand please: upcoming GAMES. Not hardware reliability, PMP sales or the widespread misuse of the word "ironic".

 

[SG79]

According to Sony's own shipped numbers (much like how MS touts shipped units), KZ2 and U2 were successes, unless we get into accusations of putting a brave face on a dire situation. As was something like GT5p, so it must mean that PAL regions are having healthy sales. Likewise for the original Uncharted. In fact, even the user base discrepancy is negligible in PAL regions.

There isn't a doubt that MGS4 was a massive success either, and there have been some third party multiplatform titles like Batman AA, RE5, DMC4 and SFIV that sold better on the PS3 worldwide.

However, the original point about security/piracy stands. Even though the worldwide lead is much lower than it used by last gen between the PS2 and other, developers will always look at the lead in the most viable market, which is NA.

 

[liolio]

I would put my bet, a risky one, on Halo Reach and whatever CoD xx Activision pushes out

GT5 may be the third game on the podium if it launches by fall 2010 in Europe and US.

 

[zed]

None of the titles he mentioned took off anywhere.

check the UK charts, uncharted 2 has been tracking far higher than halo ODST did at the same point in its lifecycle
Now the UK is the most shooter orientated of the european countries, so there are 2 options
A/ halo ODST bombed
B/ uncharted 2 has actually done quite well

this is the sole (I believe) european country that the xbox360 enjoys an install base over the ps3

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not to mention that practically every PS3 exclusive has failed to reach sales expectations...

We need to qualify these kinds of comments. We need an actual figure to determine success of sales, or if you're saying about reaching expectations, we need figures from Sony about what they were expecting. I agree LBP wasn't the success many expected, including me, but then the game wasn't what we (or certianly I) expected. The controls really are annoying, creating some downright aggravating gameplay. The only reason its sold as well as it has is because the rest of the package is so good. Other titles like U2 selling 2.5 million units (quote from deepbrown from other thread) strikes me as good sales. If we can't count 10% of userbase as good, there's no hope for the industry!

What non-Nintendo first-party titles over the past could of generations have sold well in excees of 10% of userbase?

 

[Zassk]

We need to qualify these kinds of comments. We need an actual figure to determine success of sales, or if you're saying about reaching expectations, we need figures from Sony about what they were expecting. I agree LBP wasn't the success many expected, including me, but then the game wasn't what we (or certianly I) expected. The controls really are annoying, creating some downright aggravating gameplay. The only reason its sold as well as it has is because the rest of the package is so good. Other titles like U2 selling 2.5 million units (quote from deepbrown from other thread) strikes me as good sales. If we can't count 10% of userbase as good, there's no hope for the industry!

Well, I suppose the unmentioned measuring sticks being used in this thread are actually Gears of War, which sold over 5 million to a userbase that was half as big as the PS3's currently. The Halo 3 phenomenon was predictable, but MGS4 was a poor substitute for Gears of War in terms of this discussion, and no other PS3 exclusive came anywhere close.

As another example, most people think Forza 2 was not very successful, but it will probably prove to have outsold UC2 at the end of the generation, based on the current state of UC2 sales, despite F2 having released to a smaller userbase than U2 at the time.

I don't know if it's just advertising effectiveness or what, but a good post-mortem is needed to figure out why the PS3's highly acclaimed exclusives underperfromed compared to the 360's exclusives.

 

[Squilliam]

I think an obvious 10M+ seller that everyone seems to be missing is Super Mario Galaxy 2. The first one sold near that mark and its going to come off the back of one of the fastest 10M sellers of all time. Its funny that Nintendo surprises everyone, but funnier still that they continually get ignored.

 

[Zassk]

Based on the performance of previous installments, we should expect Fable 3 to outsell GOW3.... I think that is why some people on this thread are questioning the importance of GOW3. Fable 3 seems to be the "oh yeah, whatever" runt in this discussion, (and perhaps rightly so), but what does that make GOW3? I think there are a lot of titles that will match or exceed GOW3, on all three platforms, and its importance is greatly overstated.

 

[deepbrown]

Based on the performance of previous installments, we should expect Fable 3 to outsell GOW3.... I think that is why some people on this thread are questioning the importance of GOW3. Fable 3 seems to be the "oh yeah, whatever" runt in this discussion, (and perhaps rightly so), but what does that make GOW3? I think there are a lot of titles that will match or exceed GOW3, on all three platforms, and its importance is greatly overstated.

Kratos is a very important PlayStaiton mascot, even if he doesn't sell as many as other big titles, he sells the PS brand.