The problem with VGChartz numbers *spin-off
- Thread starter dkanter
- Start date
Vgcharts esitimates comes from bad guess work and then looking at NPD numbers and correct their guesses.
VGChartz is bad in comparison to the main sales tracking firms because their sample size is much smaller.
But I believe their numbers are getting better the more historic data they can add to their database, at least that is m impression from the last months.
Here they compare their December numbers for NA to the official NPD numbers, they are not that far off.
VGChartz is good because they give weekly numbers and regular numbers for Europe where we lack other regular sources. When there are official numbers available for some part of the European market, they show that VGChartz is usually not that far off.
The talk of "bias" that some have brought up is kind of childish because you will find that all consoles have been "over-estimated" at some point in time.
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show me proof please. So far all i can tell, is that VGcharts numbers are, completely wrong. The few european sources i have seen doesn't seem to trend at all with VGcharts.
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I updated the link to their NPD comparison.
Which European sources are not trending at all like VGChartz, is it some particular country you have in mind?
Those I have seen have seen seem pretty close to the other sources, far better than any random guesswork.
Someone asked the question, thanks for your insightful contribution.
Huh? It actually paints PS3 in a more positive light as it shows a worldwide perspective rather than just USA where 360 is dominating.
And where did you get the 360 supporters+vgchartz thing..do you keep a scorecard? That's just bizzare.
My opinion on vgchartz should be pretty well know. They are innacurate and should not be taken seriously, however they do have some value and I continue hoping they can one day evolve into a decent early NPD prediction tool. The last two months they've been pretty close, then again as bad as their software numbers have been I almost have to consider it a fluke.
Alls I know is next time I post Vgchartz numbers it's going to be with spoiler tags. Wouldn't want to offend that certain group..
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Simple answer to the question: Innacurate data.
It's not only the euro numbers from vgchartz. When I posted numbers from a newspaper article straight from the mouth of a gameretailer spokespersone some people try to discredit it.
I have the feeling that some people have problems with the fact that the situation is not the same in other countries then in the US. Some discredit it by saying its wrong or the numbers are wrong, other say that the uk spends the most per capita at gaming and the 360 does well their and so the rest doesn't matter. But there never seems allot of problems with PS3 numbers, that is something I've also noticed.
I find this a shame really because their seem to be allot of intelligent people here that should stand above such childisch behaviour.
Which is the childish behavior? Using randomly generated numbers to back up an argument or attempting to discredit them?
The reason I said euro numbers is because mostly we have no way of knowing if they are accurate or complete fantasy. If someone posts vgchartz numbers for the US we can quickly verify or discredit them as we get NPD numbers every month. It's also quite clear that vgchartz uses NPD to correct their guesses.
Calling them "randomly generated numbers" is pretty childish for a start, "inaccurate" is OK by me, but they are not always that bad it seems to me.
I started to pay more attention to VGChartz last fall when Nintendo showed this slide and I found out that it correlated pretty well to the diagrams at VGChartz.
The diagram represents the sum of sales in UK, France and Germany.
I doubt Nintendo is using VGChartz as the source.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Seriously????
Randomly generated, guessing, prediction, whatever their methods (perhaps all of the above) their variance is much too high to be counted on to be accurate.
Are we supposed to be mind readers?
Those methods are used by all tracking firms (perhaps the random thing
)it is the sample size that varies. If you cared to take a look at the Nintendo diagram, you will find them pretty similar. We don´t know how accurate the Nintendo numbers are., but if they are accurate enough for Nintendo they are good enough for me and if VGChartz are not more off than that, then they certainly are not just random guesswork.
If you want to ignore them that´s fine by me, I don´t care.
I agree with some previous poster that certain individuals want to ignore them because their diagrams don´t align with their view of the world. However you may have nobler motives I don´t know and if you are on a quest after 100% accurate sales data that is one, but that is in some sense a holy grail.
