The NV40 has taped-out

[Ailuros]

NV34 is where they have pretty massive gains and that will continue until ATI can delivier a competitive and massivly available DX9 class product in that price range!

I always stood for that and won't be changing it now. I replied to a remark stating that high end is not all there is. Low end gains the biggest number in sales and probably revenue, but it's not all there is either.

ATI has won some serious impressions with the R3xx line and the market leader to have to pounder on it's low end offering as the spot where they really are able to make a significant difference sounds rather pathetic to me.

 

[Richthofen]

Well but the problem is they didn't gain much out of their good R3xx.

More than 9 months have passed now and Nvidia still mainstains its position. Of course with lower margins due to lower ASPs but they can afford that with their revenue and 1 Billion in cash.

The point is if ATI looses some ground on the next generation and even if it is only a littlebit, than they will loose a lot of their desktop business.

The market forgets failures of market leaders pretty fast and it needs a hell of time until you see significant changes in the overall market.
On the other side that does not happen if the smaller competitor fails.
In that case you would see siginificant market changes in about 3 to 4 months.
That is ATIs problem. They gained not enough to back up if something goes wrong.
If their next product line is slower than Nvidias and even if it is only by a small percentage, then they will run into problems.
In that case people would tend to buy market leader products.

 

[Heathen]

Have you?

Yes thanks,

Slightly old example but it does show what they were raking in: http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2003/05/05/daily60.html

No with ATi revenues up and both Intel and ATi gaining market share, nvidia's returns don't look so good to me. Granted they are still 'on top' when it comes to market share (although revenues are relatively static) & plenty of cash (an easily lost commodity when developing GPUs) so that should stand them ion good stead.

The market forgets failures of market leaders pretty fast and it needs a hell of time until you see significant changes in the overall market.
On the other side that does not happen if the smaller competitor fails.
In that case you would see siginificant market changes in about 3 to 4 months.
That is ATIs problem. They gained not enough to back up if something goes wrong.
If their next product line is slower than Nvidias and even if it is only by a small percentage, then they will run into problems.
In that case people would tend to buy market leader products.

I take it you glass is half empty then.

 

[Josiah]

I may have missed something here, but how does quoting a rumor from a rumors web page change the character of the "information" from "rumor" to "objective fact"...? The problem with rumors is that most are proven false with time and if not wholly false then at best materially incomplete.

Perhaps instead of "rumors" the page might better be described as "wishful thinking"...?

well, Uttar is usually right, and he rates the credibility of this information as "very high." it does fall in line with Nvidias roadmap and their supposed Comdex launch. granted, only time will tell!

 

[duncan36]

The market forgets failures of market leaders pretty fast and it needs a hell of time until you see significant changes in the overall market.
On the other side that does not happen if the smaller competitor fails.
In that case you would see siginificant market changes in about 3 to 4 months.
That is ATIs problem. They gained not enough to back up if something goes wrong.
If their next product line is slower than Nvidias and even if it is only by a small percentage, then they will run into problems.
In that case people would tend to buy market leader products.

Well one company has a history of being able to produce good solid chips with market leading thermal characteristics and one company isnt as of late.
The fact is that right now ATi is the market leader and Nvidia is playing catchup.
This type of shift takes time, but it definitely started with the R300, now ATi has better margins, better product, better yields, better everything.
It was only a matter of time until ATi passed Nvidia, theres nothing magical about Nvidia just like there was nothing magical about 3dfx when Nvidia passed them.

The window of opportunity is there for Nvidia to retake the throne, however as we've seen with 3dfx its tempting when you're in a bind to come up with outrageous technological solutions that dont work well instead of simple steady process improvements.

 

[OpenGL guy]

Can't say I've been personally impressed with their mainstream offerings (NV31).

The low-end (NV34) is more important. These products primarily sell to OEM's, where features are the most important thing. The NV34 certainly has a large number of advanced features.

Sure, it's important to get sales, but how about margins? If nvidia has been selling oodles of NV34s, yet still having low margins, what does this tell you? Maybe the margins on NV34s are low. :shrug:

 

[gkar1]

He's probably talking about fully functionning silicon, rather than just first silicon.

I should have made that more clear. First silicon is not as important as a first fully functional part. It is a significant milestone, yes, but it doesn't mean we will see it within any short term(meaning less than 90 days)

 

[epicstruggle]

Have you seen their recent financial returns?

Have you?

http://news.com.com/2100-1047_3-5061321.html?tag=fd_top

Seeing the huge stock price drop I just plunged some serious cash(for me at least) into nvda. I had purchased (dollar cost average) NV stock at about 8 dollars and sold it at 24.5. Now its back down to 15.5, what a price. Thanks for pointing me to the story or I would never have bought nv stock today.

later,
[edit]before some shouts me, I at no time recommend purchasing nv stock.

 

[duncan36]

Can't say I've been personally impressed with their mainstream offerings (NV31).

The low-end (NV34) is more important. These products primarily sell to OEM's, where features are the most important thing. The NV34 certainly has a large number of advanced features.

Sure, it's important to get sales, but how about margins? If nvidia has been selling oodles of NV34s, yet still having low margins, what does this tell you? Maybe the margins on NV34s are low. :shrug:

Nvda has serious process problems with their .13 parts. They skirted the issue by claiming that 100% of the .13 dies they buy from TSMC are working, so they get 100% yield(snicker). However an analyst had the intelligence to word the question as such: if TSMC improves their yields will the cost savings be passed onto Nvidia? Answer Yes.
Its well known that Nvidia blame TSMC, but most people believe its Nvda's own engineering thats the problem.
Whatever it is Nvda got a 20% haircut today, and ATi has a larger market cap than Nvda now.

 

[duncan36]

Have you seen their recent financial returns?

Have you?

http://news.com.com/2100-1047_3-5061321.html?tag=fd_top

Seeing the huge stock price drop I just plunged some serious cash(for me at least) into nvda. I had purchased (dollar cost average) NV stock at about 8 dollars and sold it at 24.5. Now its back down to 15.5, what a price. Thanks for pointing me to the story or I would never have bought nv stock today.

later,
[edit]before some shouts me, I at no time recommend purchasing nv stock.

Good luck, the stock isnt going to do anything until a.)they substantially beat earnings(in the CC they see margins/revs as flat next quarter), or b). finally manage to release a ATi beating chip on time and with good yields.
This quarter I believe the stock will find its bottom at about 12 and if they substantially beat expectations(unlikely next quarter) or release a killer card flawlessly the stock could see 16-18. Its not going to see 20+ this year, unless theres a miracle.

 

[epicstruggle]

if it drops in price, ill buy some more. (if the wife approves). Thats the whole point of dollar cost averaging. I will be shocked if nv stock doesnt hit 25 by the end of the year. I have great confidence that NV will work overtime to turn around their financial situation.

later,

 

[RussSchultz]

Nvda has serious process problems with their .13 parts. They skirted the issue by claiming that 100% of the .13 dies they buy from TSMC are working, so they get 100% yield(snicker). However an analyst had the intelligence to word the question as such: if TSMC improves their yields will the cost savings be passed onto Nvidia? Answer Yes.
Its well known that Nvidia blame TSMC, but most people believe its Nvda's own engineering thats the problem.

The reason I keep hearing in the industry is that NVIDIA went with Low-K, and TSMCs Low-K process still isn't worth much. Whether it was a justified or unjustified engineering decision, I don't know.

However, "price per chip" with the ability to improve the price if yield goes up sounds to me like TSMC is offering "guaranteed minimum yield %" and sucking up the cost if it goes below the guaranteed minimum. I've only seen that when the fab is taking responsibility for the problem.

 

[duncan36]

However, "price per chip" with the ability to improve the price if yield goes up sounds to me like TSMC is offering "guaranteed minimum yield %" and sucking up the cost if it goes below the guaranteed minimum.

I would imagine that TSMC is eating some of the costs associated with the poor yield, however if anything this makes the yield picture worse for Nvda considering how dramatically their margins dropped despite TSMC absorbing some of the costs.
I'll be interested to see if the parts that come out of IBMs fab magically get awesome yields and have great thermal characteristics. That will answer a lot of questions.

 

[KimB]

Good luck, the stock isnt going to do anything until a.)they substantially beat earnings(in the CC they see margins/revs as flat next quarter), or b). finally manage to release a ATi beating chip on time and with good yields.

Heh. The drop today was a knee-jerk response to an announcement by the CEO. Such quick responses are always followed by recoveries. It will probably start going up immediately Monday (though it probably won't reach yesterday's close).

 

[RussSchultz]

Such quick responses are always followed by recoveries.

Or so I thought.

Etoys....
Compaq...
TDFX....


Lessons learned during the .com bust. How much did you lose?

 

[epicstruggle]

Such quick responses are always followed by recoveries.

Or so I thought.

Etoys....
Compaq...
TDFX....


Lessons learned during the .com bust. How much did you lose?

A few important details that make NV a better stock deal. They make actual products (even if they are late in getting them out ), they have a butt load of cash in reserve (last I heard). and their products (or marketing) is selling quite a few gfx cards.

Also dont forget in a month the Athlon64 will be out. Their chipset should sell pretty good.

later,
epic

 

[RussSchultz]

I was only showing the fallacy of "always".

I in no way think NVIDIA is like compaq, etoys, or TDFX

 

[Ailuros]

"Always" has IMO the same fallacy factor as "Never".

How safe can your bets really be at all times? That's what exeptions are for.

 

[Grall]

There's almost nothing more boring than discussing stocks and how they tend to rise and fall in a technical forum.

Get a grip, guys. Get back on topic!


*G*

 

[Arun]

I may have missed something here, but how does quoting a rumor from a rumors web page change the character of the "information" from "rumor" to "objective fact"...? The problem with rumors is that most are proven false with time and if not wholly false then at best materially incomplete.

Perhaps instead of "rumors" the page might better be described as "wishful thinking"...?

I can answer that.

1. This is MY rumor site
2. It isn't like that was the first time that person gave me info.
3. None of this source's info has ever been wrong, beside when the documents were especially confusing, and then he always said it was incorrect within a few days time.

That type of sources are rare, and really, I don't understand people saying me "Keep up the good work!" or similar things. What am I doing here? I'm writing what my sources are telling me and linking to other sites, and I give my personal opinion of how reliable the information is.

Although the NV38 part is the least likely part here: I should have said High for that part instead of Very High. Why? Because while they *are* launching a high-end product in less than 20 days, I've got no proof it's the NV38. Sure, what could it be but that? I don't know. But who knows?

BTW... OpenGL guy:

Sure, it's important to get sales, but how about margins? If nvidia has been selling oodles of NV34s, yet still having low margins, what does this tell you? Maybe the margins on NV34s are low. :shrug:

They aren't nVidia is satisfied with the yields and margins on the NV34. Overall, it can be considered nVidia's biggest H1 2003 success, and by far IMO.


Uttar