I tend to think the DX 9 shader functionality is quite unpolished, look at the "FX and PS 1.4, DX 9 tests" thread.
I don't expect the GF FX to automatically be a clear winner in complex vertex shading, but I also wouldn't expect it to perform relative to the R300 in such a way.
I don't presume other factors of its drivers are necessarily unoptimized, but I hardly expect them to get slower by release (I don't think the fog issues are going to result in a slowdown).
I also tend to believe it likely we won't get slowdowns from changes in Quincunx and 2x AA, but I do think the quality will be more disappointing than I thought (I had thought AA would be gamma-corrected and would tend to compare more favorably to the R300).
I also agree their "adaptive" aniso initiative is clouded by PR, and it is unclear where the "balanced" mode really stands in comparison to the 9700. Best case seems it is trilinear, will lose the "pleasing color mipmap" contest with the 9700, but might not be too bad in terms of actual texture filtering while in motion. Worst case is it is noticably worse than 9700 quality mode, and we'll have to resort to "GF 4 mode" versus "9700 Quality", which was not clear cut in terms of quality, but was in terms of performance...in which case the aniso performance of the card is not going to be pretty.
I disagree somewhat about their overclocking solution. The hardened overclocker would use a waterblock, or some other exotic cooling solution. What is disputably "moronic" is the volume and size of the cooler assembly (though I still see the likelihood of a Zalman heat pipe + quiet fan to address the noise part), not the 300 MHz/500 MHz thing (which I actually sort of like...or would if the cards can handle 400 MHz/500MHz well enough).
I think a marketing push for the Ultra as "pre-overclocked" is a valid strategy to address such people, and I wouldn't blame them for that as long as the MTBF compared to warranty time isn't too ugly or as long as image quality doesn't get worse in the process of driver performance increase in conjunction with that.