The AMD Execution Thread [2007 - 2017]

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silent_guy said:
It's strange that these channel issues weren't pointed out during last conference call (except for the APU write-down.)
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They did say that the inventory situation was not completely solved, and they gave pretty pessimistic guidance for Q1'2015. So they sort of did.
 
silent_guy said:
It's strange that these channel issues weren't pointed out during last conference call (except for the APU write-down.)
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CC is transcript is available here. It is referenced several times, including the very first Q on page 7 and also the first Q on page 9 and 11. Basically this is not new news, the article being linked is just picking up from comments made at a recent analyst talk rather than digging it up from the CC.
 
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y said:
As for actual earnings for AMD those are still a ways off and really not much to look at.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AMD Analyst Estimates

This shows AMD losing 4 cents in 2015Q1 compared to making 2 cents a year ago in 2014Q1.

And for all of 2015 the estimate is only 4 cents for the whole year. As for 2016 the estimate is only 11 cents.
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And as of today about three weeks later the numbers now are:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AMD Analyst Estimates

This shows AMD losing 5 cents in 2015Q1 compared to making 2 cents a year ago in 2014Q1.

And for all of 2015 the estimate is only ZERO cents for the whole year. As for 2016 the estimate is only 9 cents.

It looks like the channel inventory problem is going to effect earnings this year.
 
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Dave Baumann said:
CC is transcript is available here. It is referenced several times, including the very first Q on page 7 and also the first Q on page 9 and 11. Basically this is not new news, the article being linked is just picking up from comments made at a recent analyst talk rather than digging it up from the CC.
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I looked at those Q & A's from pages (7, 9 and 11) and I do not see any mention that AMD would stop selling into the channel for the last 7 weeks of the quarter. I believe that AMD's attempt to fix the channel did not work as they expected and the result (that is new) is that they will no longer be selling into the channel the rest of the quarter.

AMD 2014Q4 Transcript PDF link
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjY3MjM0fENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1
 
Dave Baumann said:
CC is transcript is available here. It is referenced several times, including the very first Q on page 7 and also the first Q on page 9 and 11. Basically this is not new news, the article being linked is just picking up from comments made at a recent analyst talk rather than digging it up from the CC.
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You're right, my mistake. I was working from memory and it clearly failed me.
 
AMD again lost a big chunk of market share to Nvidia last quarter.

http://jonpeddie.com/news/comments/gpu-shipments-marketwatch-q4-2014-charts-and-images

Nvidia has 76% of the discrete market vs 24% for AMD. I believe the 76% share for Nvidia is a new high for them.

And for the first time ever in the overall GPU market share Nvidia's "Discrete only" at 15% was higher than AMD's 13.6% which includes both Discrete and APUs.

EDIT: More data:

Discrete Market Share:

Six months ago AMD had 37.9% but now has only 24% or a loss of 36% over that time.
Six months ago Nvidia had 62% and now has 76%.
 
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As much as I agree that Nvidia has AMD cornered in terms of technical efficiency metrics, I'm surprised by how much this seems to matter more than perf/$ for customers.
AMD GPUs are an incredible deal right now. Their low prices won't do any good for their bottom line, but at least you'd expect that it would help with their volumes/market share. And yet it doesn't.
 
It could be a company image / perception issue. Does AMD seem like a healthy company that is going to bring you a solid experience with your "great value" purchase? Did AMD do anything loud and inspirational lately?

They certainly have done a few stupid advertising stunts in the past few months.
 
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I still think that AMD should not have lowered the prices so much.. As can be seen, the impact of that was pretty much null, since it does not seem to have helped their sales. It actually contributes to lower their image on the consumers. Many consumers prefer to buy higher priced products because they relate them with higher quality. AMD should take the risk to maintain price parity with nVIDIA even if their products are inferior. At least for one quarter or two and see what happens. If you are always lowering your pants - read prices - no one respects you.
 
JPR Report for GPUs in 2014Q4

Nvidia gains 3% in Q4 from last quarter, Intel dropped 4%, AMD slipped 7%

http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch

AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs decreased -30.0% from the previous quarter, but were up 4.6% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments decreased -15.97% and notebook discrete shipments decreased -16.6%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -7.0%.

Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by -4.4%, and notebooks decreased by -4.1%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -4.0%.

Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments were up 5.51% from last quarter; and the company’s notebook discrete shipments increased 0.1%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipment increased 2.9%.
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So it seems Mediatek is going to add AMD GPUs in their ARM SOCs. Huge win if true. :)
P.S: For some reason I find it funny that we will have the old Radeon (Adreno) GPUs from Qualcomm facing the next gen evolution GCN GPUs in the same market.
 
gkar1 said:
So it seems Mediatek is going to add AMD GPUs in their ARM SOCs. Huge win if true. :)
P.S: For some reason I find it funny that we will have the old Radeon (Adreno) GPUs from Qualcomm facing the next gen evolution GCN GPUs in the same market.
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I really have doubts that AMD can produce a low power high performance mobile SOC GPU in any near term time frame. Some are expecting that it would be only months away.

It took Nvidia three years to get to the Maxwell in the X1. Three years ago was when Nvidia focused on mobile first. AMD on the other hand just started talking about improving power about six months ago.

Only when AMD starts producing discrete GPUs that don't dim the lights when running full out or have to be cooled with water to keep them from burning up will I believe that they have taken a step forward.

P.S. I take this rumor to be just that a rumor much like the buyout rumor that turned out to be false.
 
AMD needs a lower power GPU as much as Nvidia needed it, irrespective of whether or not they want to play in the mobile space.
Whether or not Fiji will be as much of bombshell improvement Maxwell is an open question, but they're not idiots and there's no doubt in my mind that it will already be much better than Hawaii and Tonga on the perf/W front.
 
A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y said:
I really have doubts that AMD can produce a low power high performance mobile SOC GPU in any near term time frame. Some are expecting that it would be only months away.

It took Nvidia three years to get to the Maxwell in the X1. Three years ago was when Nvidia focused on mobile first. AMD on the other hand just started talking about improving power about six months ago.

Only when AMD starts producing discrete GPUs that don't dim the lights when running full out or have to be cooled with water to keep them from burning up will I believe that they have taken a step forward.

P.S. I take this rumor to be just that a rumor much like the buyout rumor that turned out to be false.
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It's not like AMD have not been making low power devices for quite a few years now that feature Radeon GPUs. Sure, they aren't mobile SOC level low power, but neither is Tegra K1 or X1, the first SOCs from Nvidia to use modern desktop class GPU's. I think if you take into consideration that Nvidia have used ARM cores while AMD have had to design their own x86 low power cores, the GPU side of modern APUs from AMD like Mullins are pretty comparable. Compare a 4.5w tdp of the top end mullins to K1 while taking into account that the GPU on mullins would be a bit slower and I don't think AMD are as far behind as you think they are.
 
I'm looking forward to seeing Fiji because it will be the first clue in a long time as to what kind of engineering resources AMD still have and what their design goals have been over the past couple of years.
 
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