TGS Keynote Discussion Thread

Apples announcements are only targeted at consumers. SCE's on the other hand seems targeted more at third-party developers, the general media AND consumers. That is my impression at least.....

You're right (Since first 2 days are business days and last 2 are expos), but even so, Kaz's content is neither here nor there. I like Phil's "Game 3.0" GDC presentation much better. It's well thought out, end-to-end from developers to consumers, inspiring and has a "useful" demo that everyone can relate to without second guessing what the final picture is.

I hope Scott A. Steinberg can cut through the chase and bring us something of similar caliber.
 
Look at the release date of FFXIII - 2009. This is because Square needs a much bigger user base to break even on such a big project and they're obviously thinking that the PS3 will take that long for that. Based on Konami's recent comments, MGS4 may really head to the Xbox as well if Sony can't get their act together for this Christmas.

I think if we go by what Final Fantasy has typically sold in the past (in the multi million range), I think by the time they'll be launching in the US and Europe, the userbase will be around there as well - easily. Has FF sold much more than 2 million in Japan in the past?

Also, from the PS3 (or PS2) userbase, I would say a much higher percentage is interested in the Final Fantasy games than i.e. the larger userbase on Xbox360...
 
Based on Konami's recent comments, MGS4 may really head to the Xbox as well if Sony can't get their act together for this Christmas.

I think it's already been decided whether the game is coming to 360 - I doubt they would start to port it over in January next year. But I'd be really surprised if it already isn't happening... 360 will have 2 times as big userbase when MGS4 launches and 360 users are more active purchasers...
ou're right (Since first 2 days are business days and last 2 are expos), but even so, Kaz's content is neither here nor there.
Reading keynote summary on next-gen.biz I had a feeling Kaz is trying to fix what Ken Kutaragi messed rather than that he's following ultimate vision of Playstation platform.
 
They were just putting pressure on Sony, to either give some money to keep them exclusive, or lower the price of the PS3 to increase the installbase. There were several companies at the time pushing for a price reduction (which in the U.S. and EU then happened shortly after, i.e. just before E3). Then at E3 the exlusivity of MGS4 was very, very expressly confirmed.

Are there more recent comments from Konami than this though, that maybe I missed?

Regarding the 2 million FF sales in Japan, do you mean in the first weekend, or what? I remember they tend to launch with 700.000 or more presales in Japan alone?
 
Reading keynote summary on next-gen.biz I had a feeling Kaz is trying to fix what Ken Kutaragi messed rather than that he's following ultimate vision of Playstation platform.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7220&Itemid=59

I see that as an excuse.

There is no/little doubt that Kutaragi's vision is technology driven instead of market driven. In that sense, Kaz has to refocus the train on the gamers squarely.

Some of the attributes will not be possible to change (because it's ingrained into the console or the consumers' mind).

Having said that, I don't think Kutaragi's plan was fully fleshed out. He was interrupted halfway by the Sony musical chair game. Some of the important moves (e.g., Playstation Home) were also set in motion during his time.

Even taking Kutaragi into the equation, it still does not explain Kaz's scattered messages in TGS. They sounded more like a task list (which is not bad, but I expected him to articulate the Playstation plan in a more coherent and integrated fashion). If Phil can paint a convincing, concrete and fully integrated story earlier on, why not Kaz -- who has even greater resources than Phil ?

In any case, announcing Rumble is a signal in the right direction. What Kaz showed us in TGS is akin to a star map for the sailors and fortune tellers, I was more looking for a highway and a destination in an event like TGS.
 
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They were just putting pressure on Sony, to either give some money to keep them exclusive, or lower the price of the PS3 to increase the installbase. There were several companies at the time pushing for a price reduction (which in the U.S. and EU then happened shortly after, i.e. just before E3). Then at E3 the exlusivity of MGS4 was very, very expressly confirmed.

MGS4 might indeed wind up as all-time PS3 exclusive. MGS4:Sublimation (or whatever ;)) might be multiplatform. Of course they won't announce anything like that before MGS4 hits store shelves. OK, enough with MGS4 multiplatform talk, it won't lead us anywhere.
 
I think if we go by what Final Fantasy has typically sold in the past (in the multi million range), I think by the time they'll be launching in the US and Europe, the userbase will be around there as well - easily. Has FF sold much more than 2 million in Japan in the past?

Also, from the PS3 (or PS2) userbase, I would say a much higher percentage is interested in the Final Fantasy games than i.e. the larger userbase on Xbox360...

The problem with final fantasy series is that it's more likely to lose sales than gain more.
Production cost also seems to rise than reduce.

There are many cases of popular franchises losing popularity over time eg.virtua fighter/street fighter/zelda/sonic etc.

That's why multi platform reselling looks so tempting.. which is bad for sony I think.
 
I think it's already been decided whether the game is coming to 360 - I doubt they would start to port it over in January next year. But I'd be really surprised if it already isn't happening... 360 will have 2 times as big userbase when MGS4 launches and 360 users are more active purchasers...
Reading keynote summary on next-gen.biz I had a feeling Kaz is trying to fix what Ken Kutaragi messed rather than that he's following ultimate vision of Playstation platform.

You're right. After how great MGS2 sold on the Xbox (and how active purchasers were on the Xbox even back then), MGS4 on Xbox360 surely is a win.

We probably disagree, but not only following the remarks in this forum, I'd say the xbox fan base is rather more interested in Splinter Cell than the MGS games...
 
You're right. After how great MGS2 sold on the Xbox (and how active purchasers were on the Xbox even back then), MGS4 on Xbox360 surely is a win.
Playstation 2=/=Playstation 3
Xbox=/=Xbox 360
Gamecube=/=Wii

I think people should already have learned that lesson.:rolleyes:

We probably disagree, but not only following the remarks in this forum, I'd say the xbox fan base is rather more interested in Splinter Cell than the MGS games...
Maybe. Or maybe not.
 
We probably disagree, but not only following the remarks in this forum, I'd say the xbox fan base is rather more interested in Splinter Cell than the MGS games...

I'd say if games like Dead Rising, Lost Planet and GRAW can sell over a million copies, MGS should have no problem doing twice that.

The only thing that might derail that is if the delay is too long after the PS3 version.
 
I have never seen a title that is release later doing better in sales than the initial release. The PS3 version will outsell the 360 version if there is one. A nine to a year frame window is too much of a gap to sell well on a 2nd platform IMO. Also the sizes of install bases has little effect. There are a number of multiplatform titles that were release first on Xbox 1 and then ported to the PS2 in which most of the sales ended up on XBox 1.

I'm looking forward to MGS4 for the PS3, since it's Kojima's work that I trust. I highly doubt he'll have any interests in doing ports while they try to find other staffs member to work on it.
 
Playstation 2=/=Playstation 3
Xbox=/=Xbox 360
Gamecube=/=Wii

I think people should already have learned that lesson.:rolleyes:

What lesson is there to learn? You didn't prove a damn thing and your speculation is as good as mine in this case, seeing that MGS4 hasn't shipped on either platform yet. ;)

I still find using history as an indicative messure to be more telling than baseless speculation. The facts are:

  • MGS2 while a relatively good port sold disappointing on Xbox. And how many of those already played it on PS2? Not many. And that's on a platform that had Halo sell millions and even move a lot of consoles.
  • Xbox360 is selling very similar to Xbox... an indication that many Xbox consumers have upgraded to Xbox360, after Xbox software and hardware has been droped completely? Very likely.

So why again, should MGS4 sell millions on Xbox360 again? Because all MGS fans have already gotten a Xbox360? Doubtful...

This discussion is as gold as when Capcom went exclusive Nintendo and realized that the games weren't selling as well as the previous games on the PSone.

If Microsoft would get Konami to bring MGS4 exclusive to Xbox360 - then that would be another topic and would probably ensure quite a lot of sales. One from me included.
 
I have never seen a title that is release later doing better in sales than the initial release. The PS3 version will outsell the 360 version if there is one. A nine to a year frame window is too much of a gap to sell well on a 2nd platform IMO. Also the sizes of install bases has little effect. There are a number of multiplatform titles that were release first on Xbox 1 and then ported to the PS2 in which most of the sales ended up on XBox 1.

I'm looking forward to MGS4 for the PS3, since it's Kojima's work that I trust. I highly doubt he'll have any interests in doing ports while they try to find other staffs member to work on it.

I dont think a potential x360 version has to do alot worse. There are twice as much x360 sold and they are a happy bunch of software buyers and I dont think a big part of the x360 owners is willing to buy a ps3 for mgs4 while they probably do want to play the game.
 
The facts are:
  • MGS2 while a relatively good port sold disappointing on Xbox. And how many of those already played it on PS2? Not many. And that's on a platform that had Halo sell millions and even move a lot of consoles.
  • Xbox360 is selling very similar to Xbox... an indication that many Xbox consumers have upgraded to Xbox360, after Xbox software and hardware has been droped completely? Very likely.
Now time for my list of facts:
  • Capcom games bombed on Xbox. On the other hand, early Capcom Xbox 360 games were very successful. Japanese companies should not ignore potential source of big profits. Xbox 360 is a platform where a great game generally means great sales if you throw some marketing dollars and a good demo on Live. Why would anyone want to avoid that money?
  • PS3 is selling much worse than PS2. An indication that... PS2 owners jump on Wii bandwagon? Very likely.
  • VF4 was very succesful on PS2, VF5 was bombed on PS3 - does it mean from now on SEGA should avoid PS3 no matter what?

You see, you can spin certain things any way you want to. While I think my fact#1 is relevant, facts #2 and #3 and their conclusions are as absurd as yours. I hope that now you understand my point.
 
Now time for my list of facts:
  • Capcom games bombed on Xbox. On the other hand, early Capcom Xbox 360 games were very successful. Japanese companies should not ignore potential source of big profits. Xbox 360 is a platform where a great game generally means great sales if you throw some marketing dollars and a good demo on Live. Why would anyone want to avoid that money?
  • PS3 is selling much worse than PS2. An indication that... PS2 owners jump on Wii bandwagon? Very likely.
  • VF4 was very succesful on PS2, VF5 was bombed on PS3 - does it mean from now on SEGA should avoid PS3 no matter what?

You see, you can spin certain things any way you want to. While I think my fact#1 is relevant, facts #2 and #3 and their conclusions are as absurd as yours. I hope that now you understand my point.

If PS2 owners and MGS fans jump on the Wii bandwagon with no turning back why should they also turn towards a 360 for MGS4? Wii is completely out of the picture regarding MGS4 exclusivity on PS3 or going for both 360 and PS3. These gamers may actually still buy a PS3 or a 360 in some point of time.

Besides who can prove that Wii is a close substitute to 360 or PS3?

If PS2 owners bought a Wii is irrelevant. There are many gamers who are still waiting for a price drop or for games such as MGS to buy a PS3.

If we take into consideration also that the PS1 was famed for MGS, GT, Tekken, Final Fantasy and the likes while this trend continued and sold PS2, it wouldnt be strange that once these games are released exclusively on the PS3 a great deal of PS2 owners that bought Wii, some 360 owners that liked PS1 and 2, and gamers waiting will buy a PS3.

The thing is is when. The more such titles are delayed the less likely these games will remain exclusive and the less patient people will be.

When PS2 was released MGS2, FF, Tekken, GT etc werent far. All these important key titles are coming late on the PS3. If Sony could have ready a next gen version of these games and some at launch things would have been much much better.

Now people are feeling less secure with the console's offerings because they are continuously delayed.

At the end the PS3 may fail just because of the self fulfilling prophecy attitude of consumers.

This is what is killing the PS3 right now.

I mean Sony is really offering a great device, with future great and original titles, with lots of great features not present in other consoles. Its filled with huge potential that can make it the ultimate console experience. But they are delayed and game support which is the driving force of the console are few and far in between. The potential may not be exploited due to negative expectations.

When I think of the possibilities I so much want to get a PS3 and have all these things such as Home, LBP, free online play, motion controls, many exclusive titles etc, but since these are getting delayed, are not known to people and consumers are many times forming derailed expectations due to their uncertainty I am also filled with uncertainty. Because these consumers will affect the course of the console I might eventually buy.

But really if I knew for sure that many of the games will remain exclusive and that support would remain strong I would have bought it now.

All I am doing now is wait to see how things will end up.
 
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