Supposed MS insider discusses RRoD errors, Falcon at 10% failure rate?

[expletive]

For the second point, I guess i'm making the connection between reliability and market success and how those two, in hindsight, seem to be inversely related. (i.e. launching early was responsible for their success to this point but also forced them to release an immature hardware platform)

To me it seems that early relibility issues were the "cost" for the platform's long term success. i.e. "If youre willing to send this in for repair for a few weeks at some point, i can guarentee the long term viability of the platform and premium content" I think that people would make the purchase with that choice in front of them (remember these were early adopters, the gotta have it now type).

I think for this to be the case, however, you would have needed to go into this generation with a bit of uncertainty as to whether or not MS could be successful after last generation. (which most people were?) Without that, however, there would be no need for assuming the reliability risk, as youd ahve felt the platform would be successful, even launching within 6 months of the ps3.

 

[slider]

To me it seems that early relibility issues were the "cost" for the platform's long term success. i.e. "If youre willing to send this in for repair for a few weeks at some point, i can guarentee the long term viability of the platform and premium content" I think that people would make the purchase with that choice in front of them (remember these were early adopters, the gotta have it now type).

I was just thinking about that. In my mind it's all a moot point because I'm struggling to come up with how you package that message? But that may be because I'm not very creative.

 

[obonicus]

For the second point, I guess i'm making the connection between reliability and market success and how those two, in hindsight, seem to be inversely related. (i.e. launching early was responsible for their success to this point but also forced them to release an immature hardware platform)

Oh, sure, but I don't think that people will knowingly accept that wager. Early-adopters usually get screwed, but they continue to early-adopt. I think this is because there's a contract there: that what you're buying is a quality product, that it won't break down. You know it may, but you're assuming it won't. But at the same time, I don't think people will consciously take the same risks.

To me it seems that early relibility issues were the "cost" for the platform's long term success. i.e. "If youre willing to send this in for repair for a few weeks at some point, i can guarentee the long term viability of the platform and premium content" I think that people would make the purchase with that choice in front of them (remember these were early adopters, the gotta have it now type).

Well, it's a hard to actually picture what you're describing, because, well, it would hinge on Microsoft being able to guarantee the future. Remember, console-makers have always promised premium content. Every console that has failed to produce such content has done it, too. If it's based on Microsoft just saying they'll have content, then it's no different from any other console launch, and based on that, no, I don't think people would be willing to early-adopt a console with a large failure rate.

I think for this to be the case, however, you would have needed to go into this generation with a bit of uncertainty as to whether or not MS could be successful after last generation. (which most people were?) Without that, however, there would be no need for assuming the reliability risk, as youd ahve felt the platform would be successful, even launching within 6 months of the ps3.

On the other hand, I think consumers have short memories. People buy the company hype every single time, no matter how bad they've been lied to before. Which is why companies get away with lying to us time and time again, or launching with product they know to be faulty. Provided no one is screwed over too badly (I'm not sure if the RROD thing will affect MS any next-gen. I suspect it won't, even if it should.) Also, the first Xbox didn't do great, but MS supported it up to the release of the 360 -- it was much better off than the NGC. Not to mention that I think there was some actual skepticism about the 360's success. The PS2 did outperform it in 2006.

 

[expletive]

Well, it's a hard to actually picture what you're describing, because, well, it would hinge on Microsoft being able to guarantee the future. Remember, console-makers have always promised premium content. Every console that has failed to produce such content has done it, too. If it's based on Microsoft just saying they'll have content, then it's no different from any other console launch, and based on that, no, I don't think people would be willing to early-adopt a console with a large failure rate.

I think its sort of a poll to current 360 early adopters: "Would you buy it again knowing that by buying it early, you both fortify its future and yet at the same time assume the risk of a hardware failure?"

All the while they should be factoring in that they were able to play a next gen console a year earlier by owning one.

 

[obonicus]

I think its sort of a poll to current 360 early adopters: "Would you buy it again knowing that by buying it early, you both fortify its future and yet at the same time assume the risk of a hardware failure?"

All the while they should be factoring in that they were able to play a next gen console a year earlier by owning one.

Well, Dead Rising, possibly the first real next-gen title (as in, potentially not doable on weaker hardware) was released only in September. Saint's Row, also Sept 2006. GeoW came out late 2006.

So I'm not sure what huge advantage early adopters got. Back then, you were getting half-assed 360 ports like Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, because, again, the PS2 had peaked, but was still dominant.

And I really don't think anyone but the most hardcore player would accept a 1/6 failure rate for the good of the industry.

 

[Zassk]

So I'm not sure what huge advantage early adopters got. Back then, you were getting half-assed 360 ports like Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, because, again, the PS2 had peaked, but was still dominant.

There was definitely a complaint about the content for a few months after release, but I think Oblivion, GRAW and FNR3 in March silenced the critics. The hardware shortages were still happening at that point, so it's fair to say the early adopters enjoyed some good games.

 

[dobwal]

Well, Dead Rising, possibly the first real next-gen title (as in, potentially not doable on weaker hardware) was released only in September. Saint's Row, also Sept 2006. GeoW came out late 2006.

So I'm not sure what huge advantage early adopters got. Back then, you were getting half-assed 360 ports like Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, because, again, the PS2 had peaked, but was still dominant.

And I really don't think anyone but the most hardcore player would accept a 1/6 failure rate for the good of the industry.

We must live in alternative universes, because your memories of the realities of Nov 05-Nov 06 is totally different than mines.

In my reality the PS2 can't do then or now a Kameo, PGR3, Condemned or RR6 (all launch titles). In my reality no one described Graw or Fight Night R3 as half assed ports.

In my reality Marvel: Ultimate Alliance was launched after Dead Rising and Saints Row and garnered sales by being packed in skus for free and not because people had nothing else to buy.

No one likes the RROD problem but hardcore buyers were well aware of RROD problem by summer of 06 and most people continued to purchased the 360 despite its obvious flaw. MS didn't extend the warranty to three years until almost a year later, so the question of "whether people would have bought the 360 if they had known of RROD?" isn't a hypothetical question, it was readily answered by the millions of 360s that were sold between RROD becoming common knowledge and MS's three warranty.

When the 360 had titles like DOA4, Oblivion, FN3, Graw, Condemned, RR6, PGR3, Burnout Revenge all hitting before Fall 06 which itself saw the release of titles like GeOW, R6: Vegas, SCouble Agent, Saints Row, Fear and Dead Rising. There is no question of there being advantages to being an early adopter of the 360.

 

[obonicus]

We must live in alternative universes, because your memories of the realities of Nov 05-Nov 06 is totally different than mines.

Rose-colored glasses will do that.

In my reality the PS2 can't do then or now a Kameo, PGR3, Condemned or RR6 (all launch titles). In my reality no one described Graw or Fight Night R3 as half assed ports.

In my reality Marvel: Ultimate Alliance was launched after Dead Rising and Saints Row and garnered sales by being packed in skus for free and not because people had nothing else to buy.

I had forgotten about a few of those titles, I'll admit (Condemned, the racing games), I apologize. Let's not bring the multi-platform ones into it, because, remember, the PS2 was outselling the 360 in '06. True, the 360 ones will have more features, but if you own a PS2/Xbox, having a better version of the game you could already get is hardly a draw to the 360.

No one likes the RROD problem but hardcore buyers were well aware of RROD problem by summer of 06 and most people continued to purchased the 360 despite its obvious flaw. MS didn't extend the warranty to three years until almost a year later, so the question of "whether people would have bought the 360 if they had known of RROD?" isn't a hypothetical question, it was readily answered by the millions of 360s that were sold between RROD becoming common knowledge and MS's three warranty.

Except people didn't know about it. MS only admitted to it later on. People early on were spouting the tired 'take care of your console' line. Hell, people still were well into 2008. And to this day MS hasn't admitted to the scale of the RROD, just that it happens.

To say that people unambiguously knew, and bought it is distorting reality, to the say the very least. People didn't know until MS admitted the problems, when they extended the warranty. Anything before that was messageboard rumor. Yes, some people knew, and some of those continued buying.

So to claim that this proves that people would buy the 360 if they knew about the full breadth of the problem beforehand because of the promise of great content is, well, wrong. The conclusion you come to just isn't supported by the facts. You have an opinion, just like expletive, just as I have the opinion that I don't think they would, because I don't believe people would be willing to deal with the headache of a failed console before there was any content available, only on future promises.

When the 360 had titles like DOA4, Oblivion, FN3, Graw, Condemned, RR6, PGR3, Burnout Revenge all hitting before Fall 06 which itself saw the release of titles like GeOW, R6: Vegas, SCouble Agent, Saints Row, Fear and Dead Rising. There is no question of there being advantages to being an early adopter of the 360.

No, there's no question that there are advantages. There's no question that there are advantages to almost any action you take, so such a statement is almost tautological. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, isn't it? And, like I said, in '06, people weren't quite convinced it was, and they voted with their pockets. The 360 post-Gears was a different beast, though.

 

[mister slim]

In my reality the PS2 can't do then or now a Kameo, PGR3, Condemned or RR6 (all launch titles).

Kameo was originally an Xbox title. The Dynasty Warriors sequences that were added might not have been feasible on the Xbox, but that was rather tacked on anyway. RR6 is actually a reworking of the PSP Ridge Racer, a very pretty version, mind you, but not unfeasible on the PS2.

 

[-tkf-]

but hardcore buyers were well aware of RROD problem by summer of 06 and most people continued to purchased the 360 despite its obvious flaw. MS didn't extend the warranty to three years until almost a year later, so the question of "whether people would have bought the 360 if they had known of RROD?" isn't a hypothetical question, it was readily answered by the millions of 360s that were sold between RROD becoming common knowledge and MS's three warranty.

Until the second before Microsoft "kinda acknowledged" the quality problem you would still find plenty of people "defending" the RROD issues. And those 360 fans that might have smelled the coffee werent exactly vocal.

If one thing was learned by the RROD it´s that the most hardcore fans will take all the abuse you throw at them and still be the first in line to defend their product of choice. I can´t think of another product that would have suffered so little from being so unreliable.

 

[Akumajou]

http://venturebeat.com/2008/09/05/x...istory-of-microsofts-video-game-console-woes/

http://venturebeat.com/2008/09/12/microsoft-fires-game-test-contractor-who-talked-to-venturebeat/

I have a question about the six page article and the follow up article.

I was told by some friends that this article was really about sensational journalism rehashing last years story about the RRoD.

However I believe I am well informed enough to know that the RRoD is something that is still very much current and I don't have to own an Xbox 360 to know that. Personally I believe the article was very informative as I realized that Dean Takahashi wrote a book on XBox 1 and was going to write another book on Xbox 360 reguardless of if RRoD happened or not.

Still I just need to get another take on this, and if Shifty could also answer I would highly appreciate it, thanks.

 

[eastmen]

IF you go and buy a new system today your chances of getting a RROD are less than 10%. However refurbished machines still have the issue. There isn't anyone cause of the rrod , the main ones seem to be a warping of the board causing damage to the gpu , the gpu burning out due to a poor heatsink / cooling system and another reason is the lead free soder.

The problem is that ms isn't sending out brand new systems for those getting rrods and are st ill working through back logged machines that have been reissued with improvements in the heatsink design and of course x clamps on the gpu.

 

[dobwal]

Except people didn't know about it. MS only admitted to it later on. People early on were spouting the tired 'take care of your console' line. Hell, people still were well into 2008. And to this day MS hasn't admitted to the scale of the RROD, just that it happens.

To say that people unambiguously knew, and bought it is distorting reality, to the say the very least. People didn't know until MS admitted the problems, when they extended the warranty. Anything before that was messageboard rumor. Yes, some people knew, and some of those continued buying.

You don't have to have an official statement for a reliability issue of a product to negatively influence perception. There was RROD news everywhere and the majority of core gamers knew of the problem well before MS's official statement. There are tons of well known "shi^^y" products out there in the market and 99% of those products are known to be unreliable without the need of an official confirmation. To think that people only become aware when a product is a certified for crappiness from a product's own manufacturer is a unrealistic.

So to claim that this proves that people would buy the 360 if they knew about the full breadth of the problem beforehand because of the promise of great content is, well, wrong. The conclusion you come to just isn't supported by the facts. You have an opinion, just like expletive, just as I have the opinion that I don't think they would, because I don't believe people would be willing to deal with the headache of a failed console before there was any content available, only on future promises.

Except there was plenty of content available enough to for the 360 to have what people construed as an abnormally high attachment rate.

Gears of War
Call of Duty 2
Graw
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Madden NFL 07
Call of Duty 3
Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas
Fight Night Round 3
Dead Rising
Perfect Dark Zero
Saints Row
Need for Speed: Most Wanted

All these sold a million+ titles and all were available within a year of launch. If there was one thing the 360 didn't lack was content.

No, there's no question that there are advantages. There's no question that there are advantages to almost any action you take, so such a statement is almost tautological. The question is whether the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, isn't it? And, like I said, in '06, people weren't quite convinced it was, and they voted with their pockets. The 360 post-Gears was a different beast, though.

NPD US console sold between Jan 06-Oct 06 is ~2.3 million 360s
NPD US console sold between Jan 07-Oct 07 is ~2.6 million 360s

People voting habits didn't change very much between non holiday months 06 versus 07, so exactly how is post Gears of War a different beast than pre Gears of War. The difference of holiday seasons 05 versus 06 is a matter of supply not demand.

You say support my opinions with facts but try supporting your with some because you keep spouting off opinions thats seem to defy the facts.

 

[patsu]

You don't have to have an official statement for a reliability issue of a product to negatively influence perception. There was RROD news everywhere and the majority of core gamers knew of the problem well before MS's official statement. There are tons of well known "shi^^y" products out there in the market and 99% of those products are known to be unreliable without the need of an official confirmation. To think that people only become aware when a product is a certified for crappiness from a product's own manufacturer is a unrealistic.

360 was extremely unreliable. I remember the early batches even scratched game discs. Replacements came after replacements. It is practically in a league of its own. I don't think you can compare other "shitty" products to it.

Early adopters were die hard fans. They were defending the system despite the failures. MS denied a high failure rate overall even though the consumers know about specific cases. At that time, the press was more interested in finding faults with PS3 than reporting MS issues. The lower price may have helped it also in cushioning the impact (There was no other choice in the first year too).

 

[obonicus]

Edit: Nevermind, life's too short.

 

[fearsomepirate]

I can´t think of another product that would have suffered so little from being so unreliable.

Windows 9x. Other than that....well, have any of Apple's recent products been particularly unreliable? One can argue that 360 suffered quite a bit, but we have no real way of knowing how it would have sold had RROD not been an issue.

 

[AlphaWolf]

well, have any of Apple's recent products been particularly unreliable?

iPod's had a battery problem a while back. They negotiated a class action settlement for like $15 million.

 

[eastmen]

iPod's had a battery problem a while back. They negotiated a class action settlement for like $15 million.

The first 3 generations of the ipod and mini had huge battery problems. I know , I lived through them.

The ps1 had huge problems its first year. I would say they were pretty close to the 360s problems. Its just that what 15 years ago or 16 years ago the internet wasn't what it is today. Even the ps2 had big problems at launch. I worked at a gamestop and right about 4 months into it we started getting people coming back asking why it wouldn't read discs.

Recent times has the Sony laptop battery problem springs to mind. The thing is that ms took action and fixed the problem.

Really though in general I think products have just gotten worse. I remember growing up that my parents had things like a vhs camera , vcr , tvs and other things that lasted decades. My dad has one of the first few vhs cameras made and to this day it still works . You can't find things like that anymore. Now a days companys make things so they last just outside of warrenty so they can sell you the same thing again.

 

[patsu]

The ps1 had huge problems its first year. I would say they were pretty close to the 360s problems.

Do you have the failure rate of PS1 ? And how many were affected ?

Recent times has the Sony laptop battery problem springs to mind. The thing is that ms took action and fixed the problem.

And Sony recalled the batteries. Did MS recall Xbox 360 and fix the problem once and for all ? Millions of faulty 360s get recirculated into the pool and frustrated people. The 3 year warranty is just a patchy (but more economical) solution for MS.

 

[one]

The thing is that ms took action and fixed the problem.

Well they'd denied it for a year and a half.