If Apple come out with iTunes 2012 and they alienate their customers, that's bad business as they'll lose their customers.
Now if PS4 launches without BC support for PSN titles, are they actually going to lose customers?
The risk all depends on how much people have invested in PSN titles / PSN DLC. I think it's pretty obvious that Microsoft has more at risk than Sony.
Because unlike iTunes which is a software app....
No, The Apple econsystem is a combination of Apple hardware plus the iTunes software and the DLC available through App World.
... a console is a whole new device and people don't expect new devices to run the same stuff as their old devices unless advertised as such.
Of course. the point is, people can feel alienated if the new devices
aren't advertised as such. That's the whole point.
I think we all agree that if the next iPhone were not advertised as supporting the vast majority of DLC (media and apps) that current iPhone users have invested in....that's a huge risk.
People buying a Mac didn't get upset over not being able to run their old PC software.
Right...but I think it's pretty obvious that people already expect that iPhone 5 will support the apps they've downloaded for iPhone 4.
People won't expect PS4 to support Xbox Live content...but they will have a reasonable expection for it to support PS3 DLC content.
People buying a new Pc don't get upset over being unable to run their old DOS games....
Right...there are time limitiations.
People DO get upset when the new Windows 7 PC is not able to run the same version of MS Word that they bought and had running on their old Vista box though.
People buying an Xbox don't expect it to run their PS2 games. They know the difference between incompatible products....
I'm not sure what your line of argument is here. Yes, people know the difference between incompatible products. We are not talking about that. We are talking about what kind of expectation people will have about the next generation product from one vendor, utilizing content from the previous generation.
If Microsoft comes out and says "nope...not supported". People will understand that.
That doesn't mean they will like it. And that does mean that everything people have invested in the previous version means nil when considering a next-gen platform.
TheChefO reckons that people buying a PS4 expect it to be an upgrade similar to getting a new PC to replace your old one, but I don't think that's true.
I don't think that's completely true either.
However, people will expect at least some level on continuity when it comes to the network. This goes doubly so for the Xbox platform. I don't think that's even debatable, really. The only question is what level of continuity?
If a poll were made asking the general public when they bought a console this Christmas if they expected all their games and stuff to run on the next console they bought, would the majority answer 'yes'?
If a poll were taking asking the general public when they bought a iPhone 4 if they expected all their apps and music to run on an iPhone5 when it came out, would the majority answer 'yes'?
I think that answer is
Definitely.
I would not say that in the console case it is as certain...because the DLC era on consoles is just starting to blossom. However, it is clear to me that people expect their
DLC to be usable from one generation to the next within the same ecosystem.
Games on physical media is a different story. I think people are less apt to automatically expect that will automatically run on next gen. (But there is SOME value there as well.)
If the choice becomes XB3 with a marginal improvement and BC, or PS4 with a massive improvement in new games and no BC (with PSN or Live! content) are gamers not going to switch?
It's not simply about gamers switching to the next generation or not. It's about keeping
your gamers from switching to the next generation of a
competitor, rather than retaining them for yourself.
What if the choice is XB3 or PS4...both with a similar improvement over the current gen...only with XB3 I get a good level of continuity with all my DLC from my XB360, and with PS4 I get none?
What TheChefO isn't ascribing is a relative value to BC. Is it an advantage? Yes. How much of an advantage? Worth basing your whole next-gen architecture and business model on? Worth limiting what you can do with a new cross-platform architecture designed specifically for the purpose? I'd say no.
I absolutely agree with you that there is a relative value as well as a cost that is associated with BC, and BC can't just be looked at in a vacuum relative to other potential features.
...But when you ascribe a cost to that - let's say next-gen launches without BC and a $50 attachment allows BC - how many will actually want that BC device?
I know I bought the
Atari 2600 expansion module for ColecoVision back in the day!! And I'm quite sure it cost more than $50...and that back in 1980s.
In fact, this expansion module was a pretty large reason for the initial success of ColecoVision.
On the other hand, the expansion module to make ColecoVision compatible with the Apple II computer...pretty much lead to Coleco's complete and utter demise. Risk and reward.
PS3 has dropped BC without suffering...
I do want to make it clear that my main point is about the DLC, and not as much about physical media games. For physical media the need for BC is very highly dependent IMO, on the other differentials between the old and new generation hardware. I think MS and Sony both handled the physical media BC about right last time....and that was when there was quite an obvious gap between graphics between generations. There was emphasis toward the beginning as users migrated over, but became less important over time.
I don't think we'll see that large a difference in the graphics this time around...so I do think BC of physical media will hold a bit more value this gen than last gen. (But that doesn't mean that I think a significant level of BC is a given for physical media...it's all dependent on the costs.)
....I can't see any evidence that a lack of BC in next-gen will have any notable affect on platform sales.
That's because you're looking through the eyes of last gen... in the PS2 - Xbox360 gen, there was relatively little investment in DLC and in "the network" in the prior (PS2 and Xbox 1) generation to carry through to the next generation.
That has changed now...particulary for Microsoft.