marconelly!:
Shinobi had a kickass commercial that was aired really frequently. However, the game itself just wasn't in the same range of quality where VF4 was, and I think that reflected on sales.
Unfortunately, games don't sell on quality, though a game with mass market appeal can sell even better if its gameplay quality gathers word-of-mouth momentum.
By the time VF4 came around, the fighting genre had lost much of its mainstream prominence. A successful performance for the series once meant sales of almost 2 million copies, pulled off by VF2, in Japan alone on just the Saturn, but now the one-half million units of VF4 PS2 warrants contentment. What Sony helped to do brilliantly with their effort, however, was to give the game mainstream appeal it never previously had in the US, airing a flurry of commercials that convincingly called it "The Mother of all Fighting Games" and selling it during a fighting game drought.
In the case of Shinobi, SEGA had found that the franchise still garnered AAA status from the media and that mainstream consumer interest for a new one could be high. On brand power alone, they expected sales of a couple hundred thousand units per SKU. A deal was struck with Sony for PS2, and with the addition of a multi-million dollar television ad campaign, it was hoped sales could be significantly higher.
Retail numbers, then, ended up disappointing as they didn't much exceed the initial projections of a couple hundred thousand in sales. So, SEGA has to wonder whether they lost out on a better sales potential by not bringing this, one of their few franchises still with mainstream appeal, multiplatform.
The key to selling is to create a mass market appeal - the job of marketing. EA (and Take Two) know this best, as they've proven they can even sell creative and seemingly niche concepts like The Sims and rollercoaster themepark-building simulators by putting the right face forward for the product (of course things like distribution and retail support are very important too.) Shinobi might have had entertaining commercials that aired frequently (not unlike what Panzer Dragoon Orta, Jet Set Radio Future, and Rez and Chu Chu Rocket in Japan saw), but it didn't do the job of making those games irresistable to the mainstream consumer... a market EA manages to reach with sales of 500,000-1 mil routinely on many of their products.
archie4oz:
You should probably worry more the game than the marketing... Their track record with Sony has been the best of all three...
The thing is, it actually hasn't. SEGA's co-marketing effort with Nintendo, when they brought Sonic exclusively to GameCube last year with Sonic Adventure 2 Battle, yeilded their best sales in every territory... yes, even beating VF4 and Evo combined to date.