Sony, No 2019 E3 Showing

[BRiT]

It's unrealistic to think that gamers will enjoy Spider-Man, GoW, HZD, etc., but lose heart in PlayStation come next-gen because of nothing being shown at an E3.

What if they had no Backwards Compatibility to show at E3 2019? That might cause some gamers to lose heart.

 

[Nesh]

Is a lack of exclusives and only a lack of exclusives going to make customers unhappy?

Lets put things into a perspective. Sony will not have E3 presence because THEY decided there is nothing new to show which WE presume it is lack of new exclusives to announce.
In general no presence at E3 means no new and exciting announcements or showings from the biggest and most known gaming expo at all.
Thats where people are expecting the most to get excited. And will contrast with what competition manages to show. The bigger the impact of competition's press conference, the more the lack of Sony's presence will be felt and you d bet that MS will count on it and will make Sony's absence as relevant as they can.

 

[mrcorbo]

Sony can continue to show off small/indie titles at events outside of E3. And because that event is not competing with seven other industry giants, each of those indie titles has a much better chance of being remembered.

On a much smaller stage, with fewer overall time-slots. Not any better, and in fact probably worse than the exposure from PAX, TBH.

 

[chris1515]

One of the things I'm thinking here is that 3rd party studios rely on the giants as much as the giants rely on the 3rd party studios.
They need the grand stage and all the attention those grand stages provide to help move units as well. That's why marketing deals are secured.
It comes with a cost of course - the cost of
a) make sure there is a pro/x variant
b) make sure it's 4K
c) give me exclusive content
d) game pass/play anywhere/some frame rate stuff etc

It's never just as cut and dry as, just market my game. Sometimes it is, but most times I don't think so.

Having said that, Sony and MS have the power to determine which of 3P games go on their stage when it fits the narrative they want to sell.
And so, ignoring exclusives, its slightly problematic to let your competitor have all of E3. You've pretty much let them have their pick of the crop for games willing to bend over backwards to be marketed on the big stage.

When Sony and MS were both there, they had 2 to choose from, and they could easily decline and go to the other platform if that suited them better. But now they can't. And developers aren't the ones choosing the platform to market with, publishers are.

So that's 1 point, and I think strategically Sony giving up E3 hurts them there on that one.

The other has to do with who goes to E3, not just who watches it. There are lot of developers who to go E3, a lot of people for the first time seeing each other's work, seeing what the other studios are working on. There's a lot of networking happening there as well. And on that front, once again, MS can control the narrative here. If they want to push game pass, they can get all the studios and publishers talking about game pass. If they want to push DXR, they can have a full stage of DXR titles and push that narrative to other studios as well.

Sony has given MS control to have a large influence over the industry by not having a counter response.

Under Andrew House, I don't think this would have happened. Sorry guys. Since Layton took over in Oct 2017, E3 2018 was a re-hash, PSX 2018 is cancelled, now E3 2019 is cancelled.

Their whole game pipeline has stalled, for whatever reason, but their games pipeline is perhaps their most important selling point here. They are, as far as I can see without being hyperbolic, playing catchup on features and services.

No E3 or PSX means no talking about new important OS features. I guess there is nothing in the pipe there as well.

The idea of Nintendo directs is great for things that are already announced, but not a great place to talk about _major_ services, games and feature announcements.

They can do that at PSX, sure. But PSX isn't where the industry collectively gets together and looks and discusses what's happening. The only 3P groups there are the ones that made backend deals with Sony. There's no mindshare for companies not tied into their marketing. And what if your title is releasing before PSX2019? Will call of duty really be announced at.. Blizzcon?

imo this was Sony's first major blunder of this generation. Either they got way too overconfident and some features kept popping up on Xbox side that they didn't think they needed until it was too late, thus the delay to their console. Or X1X is performing much better than they expected and they don't want to launch a unit that close in power to X1X and thus had to delay.

From what insiders tells, it has nothing to do with Xbox but it is probably a business decision for the PS5 delay. They will probably do the best year of PS4 sales this year in US, 5 years after launch with a 299 dollars base PS4. We have leak of NPD. Some sales were given in UK March 2018 57% for PS4 and 43% go Xbox One with a total of 9 millions PS4+ Xbox One.

Another things it seems Sony will have a PSX next year. They will have their own event with third party with a marketing deals(AAA and indie) and first party and maybe a reveal of PS5. We don't know when and I think it will not change anything, the press will be there and they will not share the attention with other platforms holder.

I think the Nintendo Direct format will be used for game already announced.

The true question is more will they go again to E3? Maybe they decided to do their own events for the future.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

One of the things I'm thinking here is that 3rd party studios rely on the giants as much as the giants rely on the 3rd party studios. They need the grand stage and all the attention those grand stages provide to help move units as well. That's why marketing deals are secured.

Do you know where Jonathon Blow first announced The Witness? Not E3, at Sony's February 2013 PS4 reveal press conference at the absolutely massive Hammerstein Ballroom in New York which has a capacity of over 2,000.

Anybody can promote indie anywhere, as long as there is an audience eager to listen.

 

[iroboto]

Do you know where Jonathon Blow first announced The Witness? Not E3, at Sony's February 2013 PS4 reveal press conference at the absolutely massive Hammerstein Ballroom in New York which has a capacity of over 2,000.

Anybody can promote indie anywhere, as long as there is an audience eager to listen.

Is there a reason I should care more about Jonathan Blow than established large multi-platform franchises?

oh
edit:

sorry okay I see what you're getting at.

Can you explain to me how having this massive announcement for PS5 on their own, should lead to cancelling E3?

 

[iroboto]

The true question is more will they go again to E3? Maybe they decided to do their own events for the future.

I think they will. I think this is a 1 off mistake. But that's exactly what I'm writing about there. I really do think there was a planned launch for a 2019 PS5. They just canned it and went for a 2020 launch.

 

[chris1515]

I think they will. I think this is a 1 off mistake. But that's exactly what I'm writing about there. I really do think there was a planned launch for a 2019 PS5. They just canned it and went for a 2020 launch.

I am not so sure, E3 need more Sony than Sony need it. Nintendo Switch sold pretty well without any E3 conference. And it is the same for MS...

Edit: After I think they will at least a booth presence at E3 like Nintendo but do a conference not so sure.

 

[steveOrino]

Because they usually sucks?

GT has been stagnating for two generations.
Driveclub had big problems at launch but then it was loved by everyone.
Project Cars had problems and it's not the best thing.
The Crew 1-2 are crap, it's nothing but Ubisoft fault.
The last Need for Speed have ben crap and it's because EA refuses to do what customers want.

The only decent AAA racing games released recently are in the Forza Series and FH4 is selling really well despite being limited to a console platform that has around 1/3 of the install base of current gen.

All opinion. Forza mainline series has been in decline for a while, each selling worse than the last just like GT. Only Horizon is selling better with each release but this was a genre that was selling close to 15 million units at its peak (GT3). People simply do not buy these quasi sim racers like they use to and that isn't opinion.

 

[iroboto]

I am not so sure, E3 need more Sony than Sony need it. Nintendo Switch sold pretty well without any E3 conference. And it is the same for MS...

Edit: After I think they will at least a booth presence at E3 like Nintendo but do a conference not so sure.

I’m not sure how we are defining not being at E3. If needing to be physically at the LACC, then you are correct. If you are in a massive theatre beside the LACC, I would recognize that as being part of E3

 

[chris1515]

All opinion. Forza mainline series has been in decline for a while, each selling worse than the last just like GT. Only Horizon is selling better with each release but this was a genre that was selling close to 15 million units at its peak (GT3). People simply do not buy these quasi sim racers like they use to and that isn't opinion.

And another fact we don't know the sales of Forza Horizon 3 or 4, for Forza Horizon 3 they sold 2,5 millions after 3 months. HZD sold 2,6 millions in two weeks, UC4 2,7 millions in one week, God of War 3,1 millions in three days and Spiderman 3,3 millions on three days. This four games will be 10+ millions when the generation will be finished. Racing game is a genre in decline and I don't think we will have a 15+ millions plus racer sales soon maybe not a 10+ millions...

GTS is probably the worst GT sales and we will never have sold through number.

 

[BRiT]

And another fact we don't know the sales of Forza Horizon 3 or 4, for Forza Horizon 3 they sold 2,5 millions after 3 months. HZD sold 2,6 millions in two weeks, UC4 2,7 millions in one week, God of War 3,1 millions in three days and Spiderman 3,3 millions on three days. This four games will be 10+ millions when the generation will be finished.

And all 4 were utterly dwarfed by RDR2 in under a week.

 

[eastmen]

By that same token, if PS5 can't distance itself from X1X in 2020, how will XB2?

If XB1X is 6TF and PS5 is 10 TFs, that's only twice as much. Not enough for a generational leap (5x at least). What will XB2 be? 15 TFs? Still not a generational advance.

So either all these companies should give up on next-gen until some time around 2025 at the earliest, or we look to improvements beyond mere flops.

u can read my other post where I said i'm starting to believe an xbox next won't hit till 2022 at this point if not further into the future

 

[eastmen]

All opinion. Forza mainline series has been in decline for a while, each selling worse than the last just like GT. Only Horizon is selling better with each release but this was a genre that was selling close to 15 million units at its peak (GT3). People simply do not buy these quasi sim racers like they use to and that isn't opinion.

Forza has shifted into an iterative bi yearly franchise and you can argue that its yearly even with the differences between forza and horizions. I think these games would have a lower budget with big change spread out over years. When GT3 launched it was a big release because it was years after the previous one

And another fact we don't know the sales of Forza Horizon 3 or 4, for Forza Horizon 3 they sold 2,5 millions after 3 months. HZD sold 2,6 millions in two weeks, UC4 2,7 millions in one week, God of War 3,1 millions in three days and Spiderman 3,3 millions on three days. This four games will be 10+ millions when the generation will be finished. Racing game is a genre in decline and I don't think we will have a 15+ millions plus racer sales soon maybe not a 10+ millions...

GTS is probably the worst GT sales and we will never have sold through number.

HZD is a new game but UC4 , God of war are old franchises that haven't had a new game in decades. The 2.7 and 3.1 numbers sound great but you have to realize your comparing huge budget multi year projects to a game that relases every 12 months with engine changes and content shared between releases. The return on investment for Forza must be huge for MS . Even games like Spiderman which is one of the biggets IPs in the world are not selling all that much better than a yearly franchise.

I am sure sony and Nintendo would both love if they can get a franchise like forza , good sales , low dev budgets and a constant yearly release.

 

[chris1515]

And all 4 were utterly dwarfed by RDR2 in under a week.

I compare exclusive games with exclusives games and a genre with another genre. Sony is lucky if the racing genre was as huge as before they would be in big trouble. Many racing game studio are now out of the business (Evolution studios, Studio Liverpool, Bizarre creation.. ), many franchise are not existing anymore or in a bad state (Outrun, Ridge Racer, Need for Speed, Burnout...).

ZhugeEX(Daniel Ahmad fron Niko patners) did a great graph with US dollars per genre. And the decline of racing game is huge and I know the cost of doing a racing game for Turn10 and Playground games decrease with reuse content and iterative development. They are clever not like Polyphony digital Racing games include Mario Kart and fighting games include Smash Bros.

Europe has better sales for racing game than other part of the world but there too the sales declines. It follow the shooter rise and the decline of interest for racing sport. Young people aren't interested by racing sport.

Edit: What Playground games is doing is incredible increasing sales in a declining genre.

Edit2:

https://news.softpedia.com/news/100...Games-Have-Been-Sold-to-This-Day-125015.shtml

Need for Speed most Wanted sold 16 millions(3,9 millions in US alone NOD number) and in 2009 sales of Need for Speed reach 100 millions. Need for Speed franchise was huge on PS2, Xbox but since the PS3/360 generation, the sales of racing game are slowing down...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What if they had no Backwards Compatibility to show at E3 2019? That might cause some gamers to lose heart.

That'd be true if they lack BC whether they show at E3 or not.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Can you explain to me how having this massive announcement for PS5 on their own, should lead to cancelling E3?

No, is this aimed at mrcorbo? That was his concern, not mine. My first post in this thread said I wasn't surprised that Sony is pulling out of E3. Events like E3 take a lot of time and planning, not only for PR but devs as well and it's very costly to productivity fielding talent to press events at what may be a crucial time in development. mrcorbo then said that this is the gradual diminishing of E3 (the same happened to CES) and that it would be bad for the rest of industry, i.e. if industry giants drop out. My position is if industry giants, who dominated 90-95% of E3 drop out, it'll give the rest of the industry greater exposure.

The latter discussion has been the value of industry giants giving smaller/indie titles exposure so my point was Sony did this at their PS4 reveal and can continue to give smaller/indie titles exposure at events, this is not some weird E3-only thing.

 

[iroboto]

No, is this aimed at mrcorbo? That was his concern, not mine. My first post in this thread said I wasn't surprised that Sony is pulling out of E3. Events like E3 take a lot of time and planning, not only for PR but devs as well and it's very costly to productivity fielding talent to press events at what may be a crucial time in development. mrcorbo then said that this is the gradual diminishing of E3 (the same happened to CES) and that it would be bad for the rest of industry, i.e. if industry giants drop out. My position is if industry giants, who dominated 90-95% of E3 drop out, it'll give the rest of the industry greater exposure.

The latter discussion has been the value of industry giants giving smaller/indie titles exposure so my point was Sony did this at their PS4 reveal and can continue to give smaller/indie titles exposure at events, this is not some weird E3-only thing.

Oh. No. Yea I think I crossed wires here. I don’t disagree with your points. You’re right in that we can announce stuff anywhere it doesn’t have to be E3.

For me, this debate is, did Sony leave E3 2019 by design. Or did they blunder somehow and just need to skip it 2019 and return 2020 and beyond. I think it’s the latter. If it’s the former I don’t see any evidence that this was the plan for some time.

 

[lefantome]

All opinion. Forza mainline series has been in decline for a while, each selling worse than the last just like GT. Only Horizon is selling better with each release but this was a genre that was selling close to 15 million units at its peak (GT3). People simply do not buy these quasi sim racers like they use to and that isn't opinion.

because they release one entry every two years, it's a lot.

GT3 was groundbreaking and released on PS2 that ended up selling 150 millions units while other platforms were extremely limited in their offering (The first Forza released 4 years later)

PS4 is on the same trajectory but GT Sport is crap

 

[mrcorbo]

No, is this aimed at mrcorbo? That was his concern, not mine. My first post in this thread said I wasn't surprised that Sony is pulling out of E3. Events like E3 take a lot of time and planning, not only for PR but devs as well and it's very costly to productivity fielding talent to press events at what may be a crucial time in development. mrcorbo then said that this is the gradual diminishing of E3 (the same happened to CES) and that it would be bad for the rest of industry, i.e. if industry giants drop out. My position is if industry giants, who dominated 90-95% of E3 drop out, it'll give the rest of the industry greater exposure.

The latter discussion has been the value of industry giants giving smaller/indie titles exposure so my point was Sony did this at their PS4 reveal and can continue to give smaller/indie titles exposure at events, this is not some weird E3-only thing.

I strongly disagree that if the industry giants drop out of E3 it will give the rest of the industry greater exposure. The lowered competition for attention will not make up for the sharp decline in the amount of attention being paid to the event. Advertisement opportunities are valued first and foremost by the size of the audience they will reach. Once you have the eyeballs on your product it's up to you to present it in a compelling enough way to make an impression. The fewer people looking, the less of a benefit you get from even the most effective presentation.

Secondly, I am not arguing you can't gain exposure at these smaller, more focused events. I'm arguing the exposure will be less effective because of the smaller audience. E3's value is it gets large portions of the industry and the community of gamers focused on one place at one time. Without this level of focus, E3 loses it's reason to exist and without this focus nothing else is equivalent to E3.