Sony is bleeding money - business strategy discussion

I though the 2012 financials was helped by selling assets, it's my impression that is not the case with this quarterly result. Feel free to find the numbers.

Yeah, this quarters profit is the first genuine profit not offset against asset liquidation. It's a pretty good pat on the back for Kaz!
 
Yeah, this quarters profit is the first genuine profit not offset against asset liquidation. It's a pretty good pat on the back for Kaz!

But i wonder how much the Yen is helping the bottom line? (Same for Nintendo)

Though I guess, they're probably due. For many quarters I know it hurt Nintendo a lot.

I'm too lazy to find out myself.
 
But i wonder how much the Yen is helping the bottom line? (Same for Nintendo)

Though I guess, they're probably due. For many quarters I know it hurt Nintendo a lot.

I'm too lazy to find out myself.

It helps but not as much as people think, a weaker currency means more cost added to the production lines as they have to import most of the components they use to build their electronic devices.
 
It helps but not as much as people think, a weaker currency means more cost added to the production lines as they have to import most of the components they use to build their electronic devices.

The strong yen has been a major factor in the financial problems Japan has been having, Sony and Nintendo were not immune to this. It's even mentioned in the Sony financial reports.
 
They have to watch out. A lot of unknown names are coming out with cheap 4k tvs this year. They may get beat out there by another vizio situation.

Also their android phones could do well and they could fall on their face. They aren't popular here in the states but right now here if your not buying Samsung your seen as an idiot. The htcs and lgs don't move.

Will be interesting to see how they do the next 2 years
 
They have to watch out. A lot of unknown names are coming out with cheap 4k tvs this year. They may get beat out there by another vizio situation.

Also their android phones could do well and they could fall on their face. They aren't popular here in the states but right now here if your not buying Samsung your seen as an idiot. The htcs and lgs don't move.

Will be interesting to see how they do the next 2 years

Their Android phones are mentioned as one of the reasons why they are doing better, and it's for a good reason. So far they have gone out of their way to leave a bad impression with Android. It's only recently they have started to make way. So much i might give them a chance during the next round.. IF they make a Google phone. Tldr, Android is helping them reduce their blood loss :)

As a sidenote, i am curious what will happen with 4K, at the current prices i am not in.. and without the software it's dead in the water imho..
 
but its fickle and Samsung seems to be heating things up with 3 different note 3 devices coming out in October and the s5 coming out in april .
 
They have to watch out for the zombie apocalypse, there's no way to tell, but it could have a horrible impact on their bottom line. Sure they're doing fine now, and are recovering above expectations, but the reality is that Sony is in a desperate situation. Fear the zombies.

Fear them.
 
They have to watch out for the zombie apocalypse, there's no way to tell, but it could have a horrible impact on their bottom line. Sure they're doing fine now, and are recovering above expectations, but the reality is that Sony is in a desperate situation. Fear the zombies.

Fear them.

Unless sony is the ones to unlesh them.


Anyway , 30m in profit is not doing fine. They are still at a very fragile point and they will be spending a lot of money in the months to come .
 
but its fickle and Samsung seems to be heating things up with 3 different note 3 devices coming out in October and the s5 coming out in april .

They made good during the S3/S4, some people (like me) wants something else than Samsung. What i am saying is, Samsung was a hard competitor while they made that money on their own Android phones.

Anyway , 30m in profit is not doing fine. They are still at a very fragile point and they will be spending a lot of money in the months to come .

Afaik it's a difference between billions lost and 30 million won. That is very positive, and they have a lot in store now that can help them keep the momentum going. It's pretty much everything they are making money on now that has more to gain in the coming years plus the PS4

But it's Sony, so nothing is certain.. at all :)
 
Their Android phones are mentioned as one of the reasons why they are doing better, and it's for a good reason. So far they have gone out of their way to leave a bad impression with Android. It's only recently they have started to make way. So much i might give them a chance during the next round.. IF they make a Google phone. Tldr, Android is helping them reduce their blood loss :)

Sony's smartphone started getting really good as soon as they bought out Ericcson. Who knew they had become such a boat anchor on the division? Sony has a lot of room for growth since their Xperia phones are not widely available in the US yet. They are only just launching the Z on T-Mobile, and I don't think AT&T and Verizon offer Sony phones at all yet.
 
If the analogy is blood loss, the first step to recovery is to stop the bleeding. 35 million means the 'wound' has 'healed over'. It may open up again, perhaps with a temporary bandage in effect at the moment, or it may heal fully and the rest of the organisation start producing 'blood' to get back to healthy.

Yes, it's a good sign. But they aren't out of the woods yet. We'll have a better idea once FY2013 is done. They only managed to have a profitable year for FY2012 because they sold some of their assets. For FY2014 they'll have a recurring cost associated with renting the use of some of those properties back from the people they sold them to. It isn't going to be huge, of course, but it is an additional cost they did not have prior.

What is somewhat of a concern is that while they are forecasting increased revenue for FY2013 compared to FY2012, they are forcasting that operating income will be flat. And that is with forecasting lower R&D which is then mostly offset by higher capital expenditures and depreciation and amortization.

What is of particular concern is that much of this is highly dependant on the Yen remaining [strike]strong[/strike] relatively weaker compared to recent years. For example, from IP&S

The outlook for overall segment sales remains unchanged from the May forecast primarily due to the favorable impact of foreign exchange rates, offset by a downward revision in the annual unit sales forecasts of video cameras and digital cameras.

For games, it is similar, although they are expecting sales to increase significantly YoY (PS4 impact this holiday season), but that will be mostly negated due to the relative strength of the dollar compared to the yen. That is due to the high ratio of "US dollar dominated hardware costs." And hence they expect that the operating results will "deteriorate significantly year-on-year." An indication that PS4 hardware isn't likely going to be a profit generator and possibly indicating that it might be sold for a loss.

Basically, if you go through their financial forecasts, everything is dependent on a favorable exchange rate between the yen and the other world currencies. When that isn't as favorable (yen to dollar in their US dollar dominated hardware costs for Games) then things start to take a downward dive.

Also, one forecast that I find highly questionable is in HE&S (Televisions are in this segment).

Sales are expected to increase significantly and operating income is expected to be recorded, reflecting an expected significant improvement in operating results year-on-year.

I'm not quite as optimistic as they are that they will be able to turn this segment around with the competition they have from the Korean and Chinese competition.

Basically, a large part of their financial performance is going to be largely out of their control (yen exchange rates). Especially with some segments (HE&S, for example) forecasting lower sales in Japan offset by greater sales worldwide. Things like that make them even more dependent on favorable exchange rates in order to turn a profit.

And that is what raises red flags for me. Exchange rates for most of FY2012 were not favorable. And they are forecasting flat operating income based on having significantly more favorable exchange rates for FY2013. That indicates that unit sales are projected to be down (as mentioned in their forecasts) compared to FY2012.

Which means the company is actually forecast to do worse from a unit sales POV, but that is offset by higher yen revenue due to a more favorable exchange rate. That doesn't seem to indicate a company that is on a solid recovery footing.

As long as the Yen does not deteriorate then it is all moot. As revenue and income is far more important that unit sales. But yearly losses (decreases) in unit sales doesn't indicate growth potential and is a problem if the Yen remains flat for the next fiscal year (FY2014), but they continue to lose unit sales on a YoY basis. Still, it's highly premature to start speculating on FY2014 when we've not even halfway through FY2013. But the trending and their own forecasts aren't very encouraging.

Anyone wanting to look at this information for themselves can find all of Sony's fiscal reports (from 2003 onwards) and their current forecast at (http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/ ).

Regards,
SB
 
Sony's smartphone started getting really good as soon as they bought out Ericcson. Who knew they had become such a boat anchor on the division? Sony has a lot of room for growth since their Xperia phones are not widely available in the US yet. They are only just launching the Z on T-Mobile, and I don't think AT&T and Verizon offer Sony phones at all yet.

I just bought an Xperia Z the other day, to replace an Xperia P. Before that I had Samsung and before that iPhone. Out of all of them the Z has impressed me the most. It's very slick and blows my Transformer Infinity out of the water in every way. So tempted to bin the Asus and get a Z tablet. But that is just too many Sony products in one place!!

But Sony really have upped their game with their mobile entries, very much back to the Sony of old that produced top quality kit with some amazing design aesthetics. It's pretty expensive though, I think it was ~£500. If they could reign in their costs and make the integration with the PSN much tighter they would be laughing. As it stands at the moment the Playmobile stuff just doesn't float my boat at all.
 
4k TV can't be much of a factor. The Sony 4K TVs are like $7k.

No content so people buying them have money to burn.
 
Sony need to do something about it's movie business, two big flops in a matter of weeks just shouldn't be happening.

From a financial perspective, After Earth was terrible, White House Down is even worse( it was always going to bomb overseas and yet it had $150mil+marketing budget).
 
Movies never seems to make money - that's "Hollywood accounting" at work. You can google the term for more info.
 
Yes, it's a good sign. But they aren't out of the woods yet. We'll have a better idea once FY2013 is done. They only managed to have a profitable year for FY2012 because they sold some of their assets. For FY2014 they'll have a recurring cost associated with renting the use of some of those properties back from the people they sold them to. It isn't going to be huge, of course, but it is an additional cost they did not have prior.

What is somewhat of a concern is that while they are forecasting increased revenue for FY2013 compared to FY2012, they are forcasting that operating income will be flat. And that is with forecasting lower R&D which is then mostly offset by higher capital expenditures and depreciation and amortization.

What is of particular concern is that much of this is highly dependant on the Yen remaining strong. For example, from IP&S



For games, it is similar, although they are expecting sales to increase significantly YoY (PS4 impact this holiday season), but that will be mostly negated due to the relative strength of the dollar compared to the yen. That is due to the high ratio of "US dollar dominated hardware costs." And hence they expect that the operating results will "deteriorate significantly year-on-year." An indication that PS4 hardware isn't likely going to be a profit generator and possibly indicating that it might be sold for a loss.

Basically, if you go through their financial forecasts, everything is dependent on a favorable exchange rate between the yen and the other world currencies. When that isn't as favorable (yen to dollar in their US dollar dominated hardware costs for Games) then things start to take a downward dive.

Also, one forecast that I find highly questionable is in HE&S (Televisions are in this segment).



I'm not quite as optimistic as they are that they will be able to turn this segment around with the competition they have from the Korean and Chinese competition.

Basically, a large part of their financial performance is going to be largely out of their control (yen exchange rates). Especially with some segments (HE&S, for example) forecasting lower sales in Japan offset by greater sales worldwide. Things like that make them even more dependent on favorable exchange rates in order to turn a profit.

And that is what raises red flags for me. Exchange rates for most of FY2012 were not favorable. And they are forecasting flat operating income based on having significantly more favorable exchange rates for FY2013. That indicates that unit sales are projected to be down (as mentioned in their forecasts) compared to FY2012.

Which means the company is actually forecast to do worse from a unit sales POV, but that is offset by higher yen revenue due to a more favorable exchange rate. That doesn't seem to indicate a company that is on a solid recovery footing.

As long as the Yen does not deteriorate then it is all moot. As revenue and income is far more important that unit sales. But yearly losses (decreases) in unit sales doesn't indicate growth potential and is a problem if the Yen remains flat for the next fiscal year (FY2014), but they continue to lose unit sales on a YoY basis. Still, it's highly premature to start speculating on FY2014 when we've not even halfway through FY2013. But the trending and their own forecasts aren't very encouraging.

Anyone wanting to look at this information for themselves can find all of Sony's fiscal reports (from 2003 onwards) and their current forecast at (http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/ ).

Regards,
SB
That is a great post, a really great post.

The scary part outside the yen is (to me as I share his pov) statement like this (from Carmack whom no matter his godly status could be wrong on the matter :LOL: ):
He thinks Android "micro consoles" like Ouya wont make a big dent now, but could someday.

He thinks this is the last console gen, some combo of android consoles, mobile/phone hardware, cloud, etc will replace dedicated boxes before next gen. There wont be a "Sony box" and "MS box" like as we see them now.
Be it MSFT or Sony they may not have a shot to offset what could be massive investments done in relation with the launch of new consoles. We specs as they have imo, expecting a 7/8 years generation is on the crazy side. I was quite circumspect when I read the DF paper about the XB1 being designed to work for 10 years.

Another thing is the paywall, I'm still wary about how this gen (obviously not only Sony) will be perceived by the console market at large, could it impact the growth of that market? I'm close to think so.
Now could it have negative impact on the market size... I wonder.

I'm close to think that the console market as pushed by Sony and then MSFT is unsustainable, or really fragile. The fact that both Sony and MSFT acts as if they were an imperious need to widen their source of revenues is a testament for that matter of fact.
I also think that paywall are already an acknowledgement that they fail /they don't make enough money from games, content, etc. the paywall makes money and cover the expenses of running a failed "appstore".
For me we look at a failed model, it is not really disputable for now it is failed, but either Sony or MSFT hope to make it works.
 
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Yen remaining strong.

Weak Yen you mean, it's a policy that the current japanese government has followed for some time now because one of the main problem for Japans industry has been having was a strong yen.

So you could turn your post around and say that the bad news would depend on a strong yen, because that has been a major part of the problems Sony etc has faced.

It's a economical gamble but so is everything right now :)
 
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That is a great post, a really great post.

The scary part outside the yen is (to me as I share his pov) statement like this (from Carmack whom no matter his godly status could be wrong on the matter :LOL: ):
Be it MSFT or Sony they may not have a shot to offset what could be massive investments done in relation with the launch of new consoles. We specs as they have imo, expecting a 7/8 years generation is on the crazy side. I was quite circumspect when I read the DF paper about the XB1 being designed to work for 10 years.

Another thing is the paywall, I'm still wary about how this gen (obviously not only Sony) will be perceived by the console market at large, could it impact the growth of that market? I'm close to think so.
Now could it have negative impact on the market size... I wonder.

I'm close to think that the console market as pushed by Sony and then MSFT is unsustainable, or really fragile. The fact that both Sony and MSFT acts as if they were an imperious need to widen their source of revenues is a testament for that matter of fact.
I also think that paywall are already an acknowledgement that they fail /they don't make enough money from games, content, etc. the paywall makes money and cover the expenses of running a failed "appstore".
For me we look at a failed model, it is not really disputable for now it is failed, but either Sony or MSFT hope to make it works.

The last Generation saw a total sale of 250 million consoles, that market is not just going to go away. And the paywall really depends on what you get for your money. If Sony continues it's crazy PS+ offers it's fairly good value and i expect Microsoft to follow suit. Finally many will simply choose not to play online with their games.

I got a good feeling about this generation, way better than the last one.
 
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