Yes, it's a good sign. But they aren't out of the woods yet. We'll have a better idea once FY2013 is done. They only managed to have a profitable year for FY2012 because they sold some of their assets. For FY2014 they'll have a recurring cost associated with renting the use of some of those properties back from the people they sold them to. It isn't going to be huge, of course, but it is an additional cost they did not have prior.
What is somewhat of a concern is that while they are forecasting increased revenue for FY2013 compared to FY2012, they are forcasting that operating income will be flat. And that is with forecasting lower R&D which is then mostly offset by higher capital expenditures and depreciation and amortization.
What is of particular concern is that much of this is highly dependant on the Yen remaining strong. For example, from IP&S
For games, it is similar, although they are expecting sales to increase significantly YoY (PS4 impact this holiday season), but that will be mostly negated due to the relative strength of the dollar compared to the yen. That is due to the high ratio of "US dollar dominated hardware costs." And hence they expect that the operating results will "deteriorate significantly year-on-year." An indication that PS4 hardware isn't likely going to be a profit generator and possibly indicating that it might be sold for a loss.
Basically, if you go through their financial forecasts, everything is dependent on a favorable exchange rate between the yen and the other world currencies. When that isn't as favorable (yen to dollar in their US dollar dominated hardware costs for Games) then things start to take a downward dive.
Also, one forecast that I find highly questionable is in HE&S (Televisions are in this segment).
I'm not quite as optimistic as they are that they will be able to turn this segment around with the competition they have from the Korean and Chinese competition.
Basically, a large part of their financial performance is going to be largely out of their control (yen exchange rates). Especially with some segments (HE&S, for example) forecasting lower sales in Japan offset by greater sales worldwide. Things like that make them even more dependent on favorable exchange rates in order to turn a profit.
And that is what raises red flags for me. Exchange rates for most of FY2012 were not favorable. And they are forecasting flat operating income based on having significantly more favorable exchange rates for FY2013. That indicates that unit sales are projected to be down (as mentioned in their forecasts) compared to FY2012.
Which means the company is actually forecast to do worse from a unit sales POV, but that is offset by higher yen revenue due to a more favorable exchange rate. That doesn't seem to indicate a company that is on a solid recovery footing.
As long as the Yen does not deteriorate then it is all moot. As revenue and income is far more important that unit sales. But yearly losses (decreases) in unit sales doesn't indicate growth potential and is a problem if the Yen remains flat for the next fiscal year (FY2014), but they continue to lose unit sales on a YoY basis. Still, it's highly premature to start speculating on FY2014 when we've not even halfway through FY2013. But the trending and their own forecasts aren't very encouraging.
Anyone wanting to look at this information for themselves can find all of Sony's fiscal reports (from 2003 onwards) and their current forecast at (
http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/ ).
Regards,
SB