Regards a March launch, it is possible.
People questioning availability of finalised hardware, it isn't needed. Games development is on Linux, PPC ISA, nVidia GPU's running OpenGL. Common interfaces. First gen games will just be running off the PPE I guess. Nothing spectacular in terms of console performance, but at least visually, leaps and bounds ahead of this gen. Heavenly Sword for example is PPE only. UE3 so far is PPE only.
So Sony doesn't need to finalise hardware months before release to enable devs to code for the system. They can add features in the last minute - they just won't be used straight off the bat. First gen games will just use the standard APIs. Finalised hardware shouldn't matter.
If given a choice between a March release or a September release, March probably makes more sense. With less demnd they can gradually stockpile while still building up a user base. If sales are weak (250,000 a month) that's still 1.5 million Sony will have up on a September release, 1.5 million Software consumers. The quicker you get growing, the better. They'll always be one Christmas behind XB360 in sales whenever they launch - why make it an extra 6-8 months behind 360 if you have the hardware ready?
If they have a naff line-up it could hurt, but I don't see that happening. We've already seen UE3 running. There'll be games comparable to XB360s in terms of visuals and content if both launch in a similar time-frame. I expect both to receive a large share of ports, as devs tie in new content with the PC market to maximise software sales. Next-gen consoles will be too small to begin with.
As such I think as others here have said (Laa-Yosh!) it's better for Sony to make an early appearance with nothing groundbreaking, the PlayStation name, and next-gen graphics comparable side-by-side with XB360, to disrupt 360s momentum, then to launch a year after. A year of accumlating interest in 360 would NEED an earth-shattering launch from Sony to knock the wind out of that momentum.
The only other real option is the stalling one. Promise March, and keep pushing back. I don't think that'll work anywhere other than Europe (where it's the norm). eg. PSP in EU was delayed to supply the Japanese, US and Korean markets. I imagine a March release is US only woulc be the smartest tactical release Sony could do. Well, it will work because everyong will wait, but they'll get angry!
Regards killer apps, that's not needed until you're going head to head in the high-sales seasons. Those that want Halo 3 will get XB360 regardless of what Sony do. Those that want GT5 won't get XB360. Killer apps drive a strong launch, but that might go against Sony's wishes, especially if they have limited production. Better instead to have slow sales, stockpile, then release the killer apps against MS's at Christmas trying to win favour, knowing there's a hardware base to support the games too.
Regards MS marketting XB360 like stink, they made a pretty has job of marketting XB (at least in the EU from what I remember) and their showing so far has been weak. They don't seem as good at pushing consoles as they re at pushing OSs!
And finally, Sony may have a 'trump card' if they've got really good backwards compatibility. This is an unknown, but if you can play PS2 games enhanced like they managed with PS emulation, say AA and aniso filtering, PS3 will appeal to the existing PS2 users by offering their current games a new lease of life - no frame drops and better IQ - until the decent software comes around. I think that could be one of PS3's key strengths if they can manage it (but that might be really hard as PS2 games are written to the metal)
- A shrunken down PS2 chipset can be used in conjunction with the PS3, especially this eDram. Developers , I read , could have utilized the PS1's 2MB as RAM with the PS2's if they wanted. Song have long since integrated the EE + GS. ANd they have fabs that can hcurn those babies out by the thousands. So if they say backwards compatibility, better me believe SOny the Microsoft.
By the way, Both Xbox and PS2 are low-end DVD players, if you own either , what really is the motivation to get rid of them. Many people still buy PSone, I do not, because of the graphical leap, there is a very small amount of games that I can still go and play. Take into account that Gears of War and huxley are the only two TRULY next-gen LOOKING titles on the X360, if I were an xbox owner, my current system woudl be just fine. I look at the upcoming hitmamn and revised MGS3, among other things, and it's clear the PS2 might not realistically be peaking. I love my PS2, love my cube, not as much, but I can bare looking at nigh-impressive x360 titles around x-mas time. As opposed to buying a few high quality current gen titles. So backwards compatibility this time around is not an issue, because unlike PS1 games, PS2 games wont look that bad to PS3 next-gen quality, albeit the tech demos ARE accurate to the power PS3 possesses. DO not want to be fanboyish or put a foot in my mouth.
But like I stated in another post. Nintendo was rumored to have showed off what revolution can to to select developers. Maybe it;s like many said, show what 'might' be possible on the PS3, taking the winds out of MS momentum, while not yet showing their true strength. If Sony can up it's online capabilities to current X-box live capabilities, they would have done enough. Because those entering into the online arena this time around would no doubt be impressed otherwise, and it seems MS is hinging it's existence on peaking the interests of it's 5% online xbox gamers(go figure).
