corduroygt
Banned
I don't see next gen costing much more than this gen, Some game assets are already being created at a level the consoles can't display in real time at 30 fps. Next gen we'll finally be able to see them in action.
Sign of PS4 development?
- Thread starter wco81
- Start date
I don't see next gen costing much more than this gen, Some game assets are already being created at a level the consoles can't display in real time at 30 fps. Next gen we'll finally be able to see them in action.
Quite possibly, but what need do they have for this jump just yet? The PS3 is still at $300 while the Wii/360 are at $200. IMO there is still plenty of wiggle room to go with the price, especially for the ps3. On top of that, it's pretty clear that there isn't the widespread demand for the latest and greatest in hardware tech as you seem to think. Though sales have cooled a bit, the sales of the Wii is still great, proving that updated tech is not a necessity just yet.
One of the main things that pulled me into learning about console game development specifically is seeing developers produce games, effects, experiences, etc. that are beyond a consoles theorized limit. It's for this reason that I'm excited to see how this generation plays out.
The ps3's price doesn't matter at least not in the usa where its currently third place. The only pricing that really matters is the wii's and since its now trending downward there isn't much wiggle room for them. They have the $150 and $100 price point left. $150 might come this fall so whats next fall ?
For sony and ms if nintendo moves on to another console many of their advantages over Nintendo can be wiped away. For instance a radeon 5670 class video card coupled with a low end dual or quad core cpu will easily out class the ps3 and 360. So for ms and sony it would force their product cycle. On the other hand . MS learned this gen that going first can have its advantages and sony has learned that being a year late is not fun at all. So I'm sure both of them want to be first or at least within a few months of the other.
Is it really worth seeing developers push an api from 2002 with hardware from 2004/5 in 2011 and 2012 when we could be seeing them use an api from 2009 or 2011/12 (when are the next api's due?) and with hardware from 2011/12. One of the annoying things to me is how long generations last. I don't need to use a 6 or 7 year old xbox 360. I don't see the point of it. I don't need a 6 year old ps3.
I think we're going to have to see a sustained period of economic recovery before we start seeing MS or Sony, at least, be comfortable spending the kind of cash that'll be necessary to launch a next-generation console on the market. Not to mention the need to come up with a hook (above and beyond improved graphical fidelity) to encourage the masses to move on.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see MS or Sony attempt a wildly different business model. Something like the IPTV partnerships MS had announced that never really took off. And the longer the next generation takes to appear, the more prominent I expect digital distribution to be in any design; either taking an equal place with boxed sales or superceding them.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see MS or Sony attempt a wildly different business model. Something like the IPTV partnerships MS had announced that never really took off. And the longer the next generation takes to appear, the more prominent I expect digital distribution to be in any design; either taking an equal place with boxed sales or superceding them.
I'm almost thinking that they will go with both download and discs for all games. They can't go all download yet, but at least offer all games in both formats. Perhaps even offer the download version a few days before the store bought versions. Then they can monitor how well that does and if the download versions do very well they can experiment later in the gen with offering some games either with longer download exclusivity windows, or even perhaps keep them download only. I figure it will be easier to transition people to an all download world rather than do it all in one shot, and I'm guessing that next gen will be the transition gen in that regard. Keeping both download and disc versions for sale also means they can still ship a cheaper non hdd model console as well as a bonus. Either way, the longer they wait on next gen means the more do-able the download idea becomes.
Eastman you seem to be treating the Wii like any other console before it. Let's be honest here the Wii has been under $100 to produce for a long time now. Nintendo is making wads of cash of it because the demand was high enough that unlike the others they really haven't needed to lower the price. They are still selling what $50 to $100 less then what they started out at 4 years later. They have plenty of wiggle room left and plenty of life left. And Sony and Microsoft are going to want to have their main sku sell at the $200 for a while before they even think about going for a refresh. To them it's all about recouping their initial investment. Also as stated above they are hoping for an economic rebound before they launch their new consoles as well. Take all these factors together and I see them staying pat for at least another 2 years if not longer unless one of the three's sales totally collapse.
You are evidently speaking for yourself. I imagine most gamers don't want to shell out £300 every three years for a new console. If you want to stay with up-to-date tech, that's what PCs are for!
I imagine you're just bitter that the U.K. gets screwed over in terms of console and game pricing.
In any case, the majority of the market just likes to play games. Theres much to be said for the benefits of stability especially when comparing the Xbox 360 and PS3 to the media optical disc formats. I don't think anyone is going to make any ground on a new format, no matter how much 'better' it is compared to the old ones. If a new one comes out, they have to do more than say "look how much prettier it is".
Seeing as how the topic was about the PS4, I think discussion of the PS3's price matters most here. It doesn't matter what place the PS3 or any console is in really, for the first time ever, we have 3 players in the market who all have a healthy market share. In the past it has usually been 2 key players while the company in 3rd is left for scraps before they die off into the next generation of consoles. The PS3 may be in last place for now, but it's still a relevant competitor in the market.
Also who is to say that these consoles have to drop by $50 increments? They always have the option of dropping the console by less along with adding in games to up the value.
I'm sure all 3 would love to be first, but you have to question whether or not MS and Sony are willing to start the whole cycle all over again now that they are finally pulling in profits on their current console.
I also don't believe that Ninty would do much to force their hand. History has shown that Ninty goes for profit above all else, so if they do launch a Wii HD before the competition, all I see it doing is roughly matching the 360/ps3 in terms of performance, not greatly exceeding it.
Think about it. How does it make sense to release a Wii-HD that would outclass the ps3/360 (thus eating into Ninty's profits) when that extra power would probably be largely ignored due to the install base gap between the ps3/360 vs. Wii-HD?? Any difference in performance could very likely be exceeded by whatever MS and Sony have coming out next, leaving Ninty in the same position as now but with less profit to show. Instead it makes more sense to release a Wii-HD that is BC with the current Wii and equal in power to the ps3/360. This may give developers more incentive to include the Wii-HD SKU into their projects since no significant engineering would be needed to run the game on the Wii-HD as opposed to the Wii. So developers have a bigger HD market to sell to, Ninty could have the same games as the competition.
I don't see the point in mentioning an API from 2002 when these systems don't actually run on DX9. However to answer your question, yeah I do see it being worth it. Some of the greatest innovations in game development have come from limitations and ways to overcome said limits.
Maybe I'm naive in saying this, but I always found it exciting when games are pushed further than what we thought possible and I believe some developers feel the same.
Look at PDS (or the cancelled shenmue) on the saturn, GoW 2 on the PS2, Splinter Cell Chaos Theory on the xbox, and so on. I remember a few "high res 60fps" games launching on the PSX, which was exciting because it was thought impossible. Personally I greatly enjoy console development specifically because of these types of games.
Besides any knowledge and insight gained today can help aid development for future consoles assuming similar architecture is being used.
THe price to create the wii hardly matters. There aren't many more price points in which it will sell still. I don't see any evidence that users will buy a system once it drops below $100. IN fact the last two consoles i know of that did so did it at points in thier life when they were considered dead (dreamcast and wii) So if the wii is at $200 now they only have 2 perhaps 3 price cuts left. With sony and ms both having motion controls with better graphics and a huge library of traditional games what will compel those who don't own a wii to buy a wii in the following years. Its already hitting high saturation points in the usa and in japan it seems to have been trending down wards for the last year.
As for sony and ms , i think its transparent that new console based on existing cheap tech will run rings around the current consoes and the longer they stay on these consoles the more obvious it will become.a 5670 with dual core cpu will play current console games at higher resolutions and higher settings
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2917/11 and its a gpu from 2009. The radeon 6670 or whatever ends up replacing it later this year will again be even faster widdening the gap even further. I don't believe at this point in time that ms or sony need to launch with $400-$600 consoles. I firmly believe that its possibly for them to make a 2011/12 launch with a strong third generation dx 11 gpu with 2 gigs or so of total system ram that will slot in at the $300 price point and provide a graphical leap as big if not bigger than the xbox to xbox 360 leap.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
They don't really have a choice in this. In many countries hard download caps are common. I think it's Rodgers (or something like that) in Canada has actually lowered some of the data caps, and even their top end offerings are "fair use caps" and not claimed to be or promoted as unlimited.
Comcast in the US has a softcap that they tolerate people going over, only as long as aggregate bandwidth for everyone on that pipe doesn't get saturated. In a DD only world, it's far more likely that people that might only use 6-10 GB of bandwidth a month suddenly shoot up to 20-60 GB depending on the size of games. And I think currently somewhere around 80-90% of users on a typical Comcast trunk only use <10 (or was it 20) GB per month range.
Are there even any unlimited bandwidth providers in Australia?
So for the as far into the future as I can see, physical media is still going to have to be a consideration.Although it's possible MS and Sony could offer services in their stores (and something Gamestop could use to stay alive) where you can bring in your machine, buy a game, and instantly install it. Or perhaps freely distributable game images that you could load onto a USB stick. But cannot be activated or used without purchasing it online, at which time some process activates it for your account.
Regards,
SB
Nintendo, sega and sony have always done a lot of research and development on prototype console technology however since microsoft came in and treated consoles like replaceable, disposable PC where users irresponsibly spend an average of $450+ on components every six to nine months just to boast having the latest tech that ironically is playing 3+ year old software the console development except for wii has gotten too expensive, too hot, too complicated for complainers, too power hungry and dependent on online services.
Its a very differen console generation now, sony will always have a think tank but sony is not Sega, they don't rush out every prototype out to retail but some people with a pc hype mentality are bored and expect new hardware so soon already when even games are taking longer to develop...just look at the easy to dev for x360 alan wake.
If you look carefully sony's engineers had ps2 as an answer for sega making a not so secretive and rushed console gen jump, they had working chips on 250nm that they aimed for cooler running 180nm process and higher yields.
Nintendo simply chose to wait a year and microsoft came out of nowhere things would be differen if it was public knowledge of xbox back in 1998.
So many argue about ps3 but sony had no choice but to stop waiting ie not pull a n64 and not make a ps3 65nm console because of fears and analysts frothing and salivating at the mouth on gtaiv deals and halo numbers.
Current pc mentality ie fanatics and sellers/marketers are more technologically irresponsible than ever with useless overclocking and too hot multi gpu ridiculous psus set ups.
Currently gt200b or gtx480 at 40nm are too hot and power hungry because of the reality of feeding all of those transistors (note that's if gt200b was ever shrunk to 40nm which is not going to happen because pc mentality is not about efficiency) that also includes anything amdati can provide.
Sony just announced move something they have been working for years as well as 3d and most importanty just launched their PSN+ online service and you disreguard what or how consumers will respond to because some idiot media blogger or interviewer is exhausting Sony reps with future plans question nah interogations?
Nv47 aka g70 had to be die shrunk to 90nm to bring cooling and higher yields not to mention customizing, how do you expect even gt200b to fit into a console on a 40nm process? They would have to reach a smaller process...
Its actually game magazines, and game media sites and anti-Sony agenda FUD packers who are bored and are questioning the current gen as a way to make consumers more confused and insecure and wait more or buy a useless 6core 64bit pc that won't be usefull until five years or until more software devs actually pother to program native 64bit code that actually requires 4 or 6 or more cpu cores and btw the cores are going to keep increasing and marketed like an ipod/iphone...
If you really think about it a next generation jump for consoles is not going to happen until 2015 when you got a bunch of people complaining about price and that's only unless microsoft jumps (they can actually afford it) first, nintendo is no sega either they actually support their user base by not confusing them, nintendo is also very interested in reaching ps2 like sales numbers specially when out of the current three they profit the most on hardware sales and a few wii games have reached 40million copies sold.
Hey eastmen direct x is a Microsoft trademark and proprietary api software spec and the reason why xbox exists and people don't build pcs to install linux because they don't have benchmarks to get scores to boast about.
Those gpus that you list run too hot and consume a lot more power than a single launch ps3 or xbox 360 at the current process and are untested for a closed console hardware setup despite assumptions so its all blind wishes of power.
Sony and nintendo use non microsoft apis for a reason, its called efficiency.
Currently the only company that has the income to dispose of by launching a new console is microsoft... nintendo despite their profits are nowhere near a fraction of what microsoft makes unless linux gained over 50% of sales and install base.
You treat consoles like they should be pc like that's a different type of market or are there 150million pc userrs with the same hardware?
I know what dx is. The ps3 has a geforce 7x00 in it which is a dx 9 capable card. The xenos is a dx9 capable gpu. that is why I use the term.
The 5670 uses 61w . If you think that is to much The 5570 uses 42.7w and the 5450 uses 19.1w. Now the hd 4670 uses 59w. Its interesting to keep in mind because the 5x00 series is on 40nm vs the 55nm of the older series.
Batman
1280x1024 no aa the radeon 5450 manages 23 fps. Now 1280x1024 is 1,310,720 pixels. That is greater than the 921,600 pixels at 720p of the current hd consoles..
1680x1050 the 5570 manages 49fps , the 4670 does 52fps an the 5670 is at 73fps.
This resolution is even larger at 1,764,000fps its almost twice the pixel count. Also the 5570 is just 3 fps behind the 4670 dispite using 16.3watts less and remember the 5570 had dx 11 support which the 4670 does not have.
at 1920x1200 the 5570 scores 39 fps and the 5670 is at 58fps. 1920x1200 is 2,304,000 which is greater than 1080ps 2,073,000.
So we can see that the 5670 is capable of running Batman at 1080p resolution at quality settings unmatched by the current hd systems. This gpu with 1gig of 1ghz memory is selling for as low as $85 on newegg.
The card uses 61watts yes. Its ore than the wii uses (20w) however. The xbox 360 used close to 180w at load and the ps3 was even higher at close to 200w
http://www.hardcoreware.net/reviews/review-356-2.htm
So its very possible to launch with a gpu of this caliber in the system. Also as I showed you that dispite supporting a new api the 5570 uses less power and performs the same as the 55nm 4670. So considering a 2010 launch is out of the quesiton a holiday 2011 launch could see the 5670 on 28nm further lowering power requirements.
The system would still have 100watts before it aproaches the power drain of the hd consoles of last gen. its plent of room . You can throw in an pehnom x4 at 2.5ghz for another 65w and be at only 126W TDP. they could go with a Bobcat chip which would use much less power than that , most likely in the sub 20w range. You can go with a core 17 1ghz turbo 2.1ghz with 2/4 cores (hyper threading) with a TDP of 18w .
Either way you can keep the TDP under 100w with a 5670 in a wii 2. Add in 2 gigs of ram and it would stomp over the xbox 360 and ps3 like no ones busniess. Price it at $300 bucks while they are at it and enjoy huge sales.
Ontario ftw
I prefer a longer term like the GPUs are compatible or compliant with the Microsoft API or something that does not misslead us into thinking that they ARE only just Direct X even though they are parts that are used in PCs.
The problem is that its cutting corners, these architectures were made to perform at full count, crippling them without engineering reasons like a different bus or something else is not really a good idea and those consumption numbers, just how credible reliable are they?
The one of the limitations on PS3 was that a 256bit bus could not be used at the time if the PS3 was delayed three years and launched in late 2008 with a 45nm CellBE and 55nm G92b derivative, that three years of technology progress might have made it possible for a 256bit bus that would have mattered.
The ATI 5870 GPU is currently a 40nm part, it would be a better idea to just shrink it to 32nm or 28nm or maybe lower to fit it into a console that essentially is similar to a laptop motherboard in a heatsink sandwich (maybe not so with X360)
As a gamer and as a batman fan that Batman game is cutting corners running in the Unreal Engine 3 and its framerates are not really indicative, reguardless of how pretty the graphics look because its just an ok Batman game not really good and far away from great or even ideal.
A more telling Batman experience should be pointed at being made with a similar 3d engine tool set like GTAIV/RDR or Mafia II with appropriate limits in the gameplay.
throwing all those PC chips around is not a good idea, its better to just have a reliable process shrink next gen that is not going to result in dead, overheating consoles.
the hardware has the capabilitys , the geforce part in the ps3 is open gl 2.0 and dx 9 capable. It is not gl 3.0 or dx 10 capable so I don't know why I would call it anything else when comparing it to other gpus in the pc world.
Those are all diffrent gpus. The 5670 is not a cut down anything. Either is the 5570 or the 5450. Sony was happy to put a geforce into the ps3 and a next gen console with a pc gpu would be a good solution. The R&D is already done so less money is invested and you reap a ton of benfits.
If the ps3 was launched in 2006 with no bluray player they could have gone with 256 megs for cell and 512 megs for the rsx and everyone would have been happy. The 5670 is a 40nm with a 128bit bus and provides 64GB/s of bandwidth. The rsx has 22GB/s of bandwidth.
I'v already shown you batman benchmarks showing that this video card can do 1080p at just shy of 60fps. The ps3 and 360 can't run this game at 720p at 30fps.
The 5870 is a huge chip at over 2b tranistors even o 32nm/28nm it wouldn't fit into nintendos past stratagies. It could fit in a new xbox or ps3 however. But I don't think thats point I am making. I'm showing how far technology has progressed and how cheaply nintendo or ms or sony could put out a new hd box that blow away the two current systems.
I'm not ure what you mean by cutting corners. Its a popular xbox 360 game and unreal 3 engine recived care being ported to the pc unlike the next games you mention
Both these games are pretty ugly and gta 4 port to the pc was horibly done and no indictive of what the pc is capable of.
What are you talking about. Why would you have an over heating problem with laptop cpus and a 61w gpu.
My original point is that a low range gpu with a low end cpu or laptop cpu (bobcat , mobile i5/i7) can be released for the price ps3 or xbox 360 and provide a better graphical experiance. Many times better. Its simple fact at this point in time. In fact SOny/MS/Nintendo could intergrate the 5670 with 1 gig of ram for it for less than $100 USD.
It depends on many factors if it's a disadavantage to launch late but this time for Sony it was clearly a disadvantage. Don't you think the picture would be much different if instead of Sony, Ms would have launched a year late ? And Sony knows that too - their orginal plan was to launch early 2006, a few months after Ms. And it's not an accident that Nintendo launched at the exact same time as Sony.
