Sign of PS4 development?

[wco81]

http://www.neowin.net/news/playstation-4-games-in-development-says-sony

Well their big push is the Move this year and they just announced new SKUs at same prices, even though sales are flat or down compared to last year, which wasn't exactly a great year for the industry.

The viability of their PSP strategy is in deep question with the challenge posed by smart phones and the Nintendo juggernaut.

So does Sony stay in the game? Do they try to change up the game by moving to the next generation sooner than later? If they really wait beyond 2013, I don't know, that speaks of stagnation and people getting tired of stale technology. No little enhancements like Move and 3D isn't really advancing the technology.

 

[Xenus]

The issue for Sony and Microsoft is with process leaps slowing down so is the rate of advance. Therefore to make a leap on the order of previous generations they have to wait longer. They also might have to wait even longer than that because since the process technology is slowing down their avenue of price cuts is also slowing down so they will probably try to launch at or near $300. This plus the better hardware we get the more power it takes to show noticeable difference means that likely unless some new avenue of advancement is found the console cycles will progressively lengthen.

 

[zed]

Well their big push is the Move this year and they just announced new SKUs at same prices, even though sales are flat or down compared to last year, which wasn't exactly a great year for the industry.

here the last 12months NPD ps3 year/year % change (a similar story all over the world no doubt)
13.27%
111.62%
68.74%
87.94%
87.33%
36.27%
30.47%
43.99%
42.36%
17.94%
85.06%
76.11%

Every single month has seen sales growth thus "sales are flat or down compared to last year" is complete bollux

No little enhancements like Move and 3D isn't really advancing the technology.

little!!!???
motion control + 3d are pretty major changes.
resulting in perhaps a bigger change than ps1->ps2 or ps2->ps3 where most changes were just from having a gruntier machine

edit -> the article though is pretty pointless, sony/MS/nintendo are working on the ps4/xbox3,wiiHD? Is this news

 

[Sonic]

2009 wasn't exactly a not great year for the industry.

The PS3 is just barely getting to a price point that makes it attractive to the mass market. Once the price is lowered to $200 then sales could take off and skyrocket or grow slowly like has been happening. But the point is, the machine has a good few years left and now that the machine can be sold for a profit there's no reason for Sony to hurry along with PS4. Hell, Gran Turismo 5 is coming this year and I do expect that game to be a big system seller.

What I find worrisome is that this time in the console cycle of last generation there was already speculation (based on rumors at the time that did offer real insight to the architectures going into the new systems) and we do not have that yet. We have speculation of course, but without really knowing much details about upcoming systems. I take this as a sign that all three companies are comfortable with their current systems and see no reason to jump the shark so to say.

Nintendo may be helping this generation stay on longer. I know of people who bought Wii and barely play it now and are now out getting 360's and PS3's because there are just more games up their alley.

We will see. But my main point is this: Until we start seeing rumors, however wild they may be, of what the next gen hardware will be then chances are they aren't close to finalizing the specs for the new machines.

 

[wco81]

2009 doesn't seem to have been a banner year:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/186979/npd_recordbreaking_wii_ps3_sales_in_december.html

And not sure 2008 could have been that great, after the housing collapse, followed by stock market plummet in the fall of 2008, which led to the Great Recession.

 

[Crossbar]

http://www.neowin.net/news/playstation-4-games-in-development-says-sony

Well their big push is the Move this year and they just announced new SKUs at same prices, even though sales are flat or down compared to last year, which wasn't exactly a great year for the industry.

The viability of their PSP strategy is in deep question with the challenge posed by smart phones and the Nintendo juggernaut.

So does Sony stay in the game? Do they try to change up the game by moving to the next generation sooner than later? If they really wait beyond 2013, I don't know, that speaks of stagnation and people getting tired of stale technology. No little enhancements like Move and 3D isn't really advancing the technology.

The original quote from Game Informer (Australia) reads "Sony says developers are working on Playstation 4". That is probably true and that work possibly started right after the launch of the PS3.

 

[Acert93]

Considering the fact HD consoles haven't really broken below $200 with a hard drive (and have shown that price reductions and library growth have generated solid sales) I think they have a lot longer to push the current platforms.

Looking at it this way: Wii owners who may now have HD tvs may now find Move and Kinect a viable upgrade path, especially with the PS3 and 360 getting cheaper. There may be a lot of growth, and profits, left in this generation. Personally I think Nintendo may rain on everyone's parade...

 

[DuckThor Evil]

What I find worrisome is that this time in the console cycle of last generation there was already speculation (based on rumors at the time that did offer real insight to the architectures going into the new systems) and we do not have that yet.

Heh this time in the cycle of last generation, we had already played with the 360 for eight or so months

 

[Rangers]

Maybe Sony just wants to be sure of not being behind by a year this time?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

If they really wait beyond 2013, I don't know, that speaks of stagnation and people getting tired of stale technology. No little enhancements like Move and 3D isn't really advancing the technology.

LittleBigPlanet 2. From Dust. Whole new motion interfaces and augmented reality. I for one am not finding the tech stale!

 

[wco81]

How fresh is the GPU?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Doesn't matter. You said people are getting tired of stale technology. Software sales and upcoming titles shows that's patently untrue. Exisiting gamers are still happy with their consoles and looking forwards to upcoming titles. And the movement-gaming refresh is also offering a new technological experience for gamers which, by seems to be resonating with existing gamers more in Sony's favour than anyone else at the moment. People aren't yet tired or tiring, and I think another 3 years can be carried comfortably. The only people who care about the consoles being left behind in terms of technology are those who follow the PC sector and have seen or play games in obscene resolutions with obscene AA amounts. That's not most people - half the world's console players are still playing on Wii for goodness sakes!

Consoles aren't really about being technologically competitive with PCs. It's about an overall experience. If not for consoles, Move and Kinect and various arcady and abstract games just wouldn't have happened.

 

[wco81]

Software sales are up? Article linked above doesn't seem to indicate that's the case. I wouldn't be surprised if the peak of software sales for this generation was before the financial crisis.

As for Kinect and Move, let's see what those sales are like, especially if they're sustained.

True there will be blockbuster games for awhile, now that the installed base for each console is significant. Mostly sequels though.

I will concede though that consoles haven't hit $200 yet, which should give them a spike in sales. But by now, everyone who might have been interested in this generation has at least one of the consoles. The lower prices would be for people getting one or two of the other consoles.

Meanwhile, there will be other tech toys vying for the same dollars that consumers might spend on consoles. Only, the latest smart phones, tablets and such will always be progressing both in hardware and software every year while these consoles have tech from early to mid 2000s?

 

[nightshade]

I wouldn't be surprised if the peak of software sales for this generation was before the financial crisis.

Well, didn't Modern Warfare 2 release like....last year ?

 

[wco81]

Software sales for all titles, not just one big title.

If one title is selling 10 million while most other titles are averaging 300k, is the market for software healthy?

 

[nightshade]

If one title is selling 10 million while most other titles are averaging 300k, is the market for software healthy?

That's not the point, I am only referring to how the peak software sales have happened during the financial crisis.

COD4, Halo3, COD:WaW, MGS4, Uncharted 2, Resident Evil 5, GTA4, Gears 2, Fallout 3,GT5, Wii sports, Wii Fit, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Mario Galaxy 2. These are some of the highest selling games this gen and each and every one of them were either released late 2007 or afterwards. If we are to talk of games that managed reach a million sales at the very least, even then you'll see that majority of those were released during the same time period.

So yea software sales have definitely improved.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But also, if there's a wave of great titles one year, the next year will be a little barren, which will lead to lower sales. That's why YOY isn't particularly accurate for content consumption, especially games which have a two+ year development cycle, and I think a longer evaluation period is needed. Even if game sales are down one year on the previous, if the previous was a blockbuster year, that's inevitable, but if this year is up on a similar year, then you have growth.

 

[eastmen]

That's not the point, I am only referring to how the peak software sales have happened during the financial crisis.

COD4, Halo3, COD:WaW, MGS4, Uncharted 2, Resident Evil 5, GTA4, Gears 2, Fallout 3,GT5, Wii sports, Wii Fit, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Mario Galaxy 2. These are some of the highest selling games this gen and each and every one of them were either released late 2007 or afterwards. If we are to talk of games that managed reach a million sales at the very least, even then you'll see that majority of those were released during the same time period.

So yea software sales have definitely improved.

How could they not . Pre 2007 hardware install base was tiny compared to late 2007 and onword.

 

[botjeter]

How could they not . Pre 2007 hardware install base was tiny compared to late 2007 and onword.

PS3 hardware and software sales are significantly up year on year.

You wont see a new Playstation until 2013/14. We've reached a plateau in graphics in regards the majority of gamers. Plus the industry needs to work out how to make profits because i'd imagine next gens dev costs will be astronomical.

 

[wco81]

Huh?

If they went with even a 2-year old GPU (along with bumps in RAM and CPU), it would represent a significant jump over the current consoles, would it not?