"[RSX] ... we're still waiting" - Anon games exec, BusinessWeek article

[expletive]

As if selling 300,000 consoles in a region with population of 300,000,000 is difficult.
Good results could also mean generating a lot of anticipation with public not necessarily
preventing your competitor from selling out.

The point is how can he judge that Sony HYPE is doing anything to the X360? Based on what? All we can go on is sales and at the moment theyre selling every unit they can make.

The installed base didn't go out of its way to convince others to get PS2 or at least not to get XBox.
Nobody new anything about XBox where as PlayStation name was already well
recognized. Besides if you're a parent clueless about specs, would you get your kid a
console with "play" in its name or 2 X's ?

No but the games did go out of their way to convince people. Installed base = more $ for developers = more games for system = more customers of that system.

Obviously brand recognition is a factor as well.

 

[expletive]

Source: SCEI

2001/10/10 	20.04 million units (Japan: 6.86 million/ USA: 8.55 million/ Europe: 4.63 million)
2001/12/31 	24.99 million units (Japan: 8.30 million/ USA: 9.87 million/ Europe: 6.82 million)

Sony only had a 20M unit lead worldwide, with 9M or so in North America when the XB launched. The PS2's lead is now at 80M worldwide and 20M in North America. Sony did most of its damage after the competition, and dominated the DC before it even launched. PEACE.

Yes, the 40m numebr was a tongue in cheek comment but even if you plug 20M into my statement doesnt ring equally true?

 

[demoniq]

The point is how can he judge that Sony HYPE is doing anything to the X360? Based on what? All we can go on is sales and at the moment theyre selling every unit they can make.

I understand, I just don't think he was implying that PS3 hype is hurting X360.
Secondly I don't think there was any substantial hype so far. Aside from Cell's benchmarks
from independent organizations (which isn't even hype) there's been no info on GPU specs,
Blu-ray speed or online component.

No but the games did go out of their way to convince people. Installed base = more $ for developers = more games for system = more customers of that system.

That's true, but only to an extent. It seems too simplistic to blame late market entry. MS was
expecting to beat Sony for leader's title this gen or at the very least be a close 2nd, and not
to be outsold by a nearly 5:1 ratio. Surely MS knew when Sony would release PS2, there was
no actual race to be first to the market. If being fist to the market is the key to being #1 then
Sony shouldn't be the leader. If you believe that hype killed Dreamcast and late entry held
back XBox then there's no way of beating PlayStation.

 

[dskneo]

Really? Since both previous Playstations have easily reached and passed that point, I don't see what's so unreasonable about expecting the third to also do so..



No, actually, it was another of those analysts you obviously store so much faith in.

oh but the Ps3 is gonna be expensive!! teh price!! OMG! its not gonna reach 20 mill!!! i tell you

*cuff* nonsense i say

the really funny thing about all this, was that the same BS talk was going on 6 years ago with PS2
"OMG, ken said it would cost less than 900dollars! teh Price!!! expensive! OMG"

6 years later.... 100 millions.
But i must be dumb to be looking at the Past...

i mean, AT LEAST we have background facts to support the idea that PS3 will reach 100 mil as well.

 

[Sis]

oh but the Ps3 is gonna be expensive!! teh price!! OMG! its not gonna reach 20 mill!!! i tell you

*cuff* nonsense i say

the really funny thing about all this, was that the same BS talk was going on 6 years ago with PS2
"OMG, ken said it would cost less than 900dollars! teh Price!!! expensive! OMG"

6 years later.... 100 millions.
But i must be dumb to be looking at the Past...

i mean, AT LEAST we have background facts to support the idea that PS3 will reach 100 mil as well.

LOL that's so funny! Lollerskates!

200 million is the issue, not 100 million. 200 million seems supremely difficult to achieve in a 5 year time frame, and like others have said, would require the later years to average more than 40 million a year.

Why is it taboo to suggest that Sony may not be as successful this next gen as they were in the past? It isn't like anyone is saying "Sony is doomed." In fact, if they sold 100 million Playstation 3s in 5 years, I'd consider that a success.

(Also note: 100 million PS2s in 5 years is a bit of slight of hand. It's actually 100 million shipped in 5 years and 9 months.)

.Sis

 

[dskneo]

i was talking to scooby! he says 100 mil is "way out of line"...

 

[Sis]

i was talking to scooby! he says 100 mil is "way out of line"...

I don't think he's saying that. Scooby, are you really saying 100 million in 5 years would be way beyond reasonable expectations?

Because if so, then I apologize dskneo--Sony increased their sale rate this past gen and could do it again. I have serious doubts about 200 million, but 100 million seems a perfectly reasonable prediction.

.Sis

 

[Thegameman]

Dreamcast was on it's way out, the company had exhausted too many financial resources and didn't have enough third-party support.

Xbox was MS's first attempt at a console, a new contendor released with limited third-party support and not too much of a line-up, released with much skeptisism everyone from Ken 'Kutaragi saying that it's going to be dead on arrival to news journalists the world over claiming it's some huge MS conspiracy. PS2 already had an install base and tons of titles people could recognize coming (MGS, FF, Tekken, etc etc) as well as the entire PS1 back catolouge.

Nintendo didn't provide as much competition as they should've because they lacked third party support that they lost with N64.
-----------------
Fast forward to the present, Xbox360 is out, they have 3rd party support from everyone I can think of. Name recognition, movie tie-ins with Peter Jackson (Halo), they've got new and promising franchises. They also have good hardware that many believe is comparable to the PS3's. Released earlier in the perfect season to get a fast install base and get some games sold. It's going to be cheaper when you consider that people can pick-up a Core system and get some gaming in... it could likely hit $200-250 within a year of release and see the install base skyrocket in time for the bigger game releases. They're pretty much in the complete opposite position that they were starting out with the original Xbox.

Revolution is coming out with an innovative controller and is attempting to reach the gamers of today and other people that might have not found games to be accesible to them. They'll likely launch at a lower price point than Xbox360 and be a lot cheaper than PS3, making their console less of a burdon to purchase if the right games are there at the right time.

All those factors cut into Sony's dominance, the previous gen was a wash for them because they were well established and started off with all of the games people wanted and hype beyond the imagination. I don't think they have as much going for them this time around and they face stiffer competition.

Is sad how wrong you are.


First the biggest thing that sony has that MS hans't is a playstation logo on the console.


The xbox to this point has prove that not even with a power advantage and great suport from developer you will get close to sony.


The fact is only 20 something million xbox were sold when the Gamecube sold like 20 with alot less suport and no online plan what so ever,that is not great in any way.


In fact every time something about the PS3 comes out is stop the presses,hype alone can and probably will kill the xbox 360 easy,cuz is not about what people like you and me think about the PS3 is about what the complete market thinks about it,in that sentence i have not stand in front of an xbox 360 kiosk without hearing some one saying" if you think that look good wait until you see the PS3 games" even from kids which is surpricing.

 

[Edge]

That fact that we are debating Sony's sales to either be between 100 million to 200 million in the next five years, is a testament to the Playstation brand. Even the Xbox fans realize that Sony will most likely sell 100 million in five years.

I agree 200 million in five years is really pushing it, but not for the lifetime of that console. PS3 is going to be huge, and no one here can deny that.

Right now I believe the PS2 is way overpriced (compared to it's cost), but Sony feels no need to lower the price because demand is still very high. Sony has a long way to go with the PS2, especially when they introduce a $99 US price point.

Today Sony sells the PS2 at the same price the Xbox sells for, yet the Xbox is easily three times more powerful, and comes with a harddrive. There is no shortage of Xbox titles on the market, as a visit to any store would show you. There are tons of Xbox titles. Yet Sony in Microsoft's strongest market of North America outsells the Xbox on an average of 2 to 3 times.

Sony is thriving in a market with tough competition. Sony will continue to thrive and completely dominate the market in the next generation.

The PS3 will get tons of Japanese exclusive titles, that will drive Xbox 360 owners to own a PS3 also. I don't really see this trend reversing much, with Sony fans buying a 360. Sony sells to everyone, and Microsoft sells to a minority of the market.

 

[Barbarian]

Console devhouse people do get fired for posting on Net boards. I have personally witnessed it for trivial but still NDAed stuff from a guy who was sloppy with hiding his identity at a company I worked at a few years ago.
It is unfortunate the reality of the console market makes such tight control of hardware and development info since so much bogus info ends up filling that void.

No worries, I'm not fired (yet). I was busy with Xmas stuff you know.
Anyway to answer some questions:
Development is done over the network, just like PS2. No BD or HDD in the devkit. You have all seen the pictures, it looks like something built in someones basement. Very rough in my mind.
Nevertheless it works quite nice and as I mentioned it has the final spec Cell. AFAIK the previous revision had a 2.4Ghz one. I don't really know much about what TypeA and TypeB were. TypeC is what people are working on right now. There is no word if the final card is different and how.
Obviously I can't disclose what studio I work for, but I can say that for now we're just working on next-gen tech and any game using it is easily 18+ months away.

 

[m1nd_x]

Is sad how wrong you are.

How exactly am I wrong? Everything I stated was true except my conclusion which is my opinion, if you don't agree with it, that's not my problem.

First the biggest thing that sony has that MS hans't is a playstation logo on the console.

So, are you saying that none of the other stuff I stated about the original Xbox isn't true? I'd love for you to come to another conclusion about MS's first console.

The xbox to this point has prove that not even with a power advantage and great suport from developer you will get close to sony.

They didn't start out with much support, they had to earn it, they still don't have much support in Japan when compared to how many games get released on PS2. It's not instantaneous, I think everyone knows that.

The fact is only 20 something million xbox were sold when the Gamecube sold like 20 with alot less suport and no online plan what so ever,that is not great in any way.

You are neglecting all that stuff I said about MS's first console. Nintendo have been in the console business for over 20 years, that's a big difference compared the Xbox starting out. There are diehard Nintendo fans that will support the console until they stop gaming. MS doesn't have such a luxury, I repeat again... first console, limited third-party support to begin with and a bad initial image because of the press and even Kutaragi.

In fact every time something about the PS3 comes out is stop the presses,hype alone can and probably will kill the xbox 360 easy,cuz is not about what people like you and me think about the PS3 is about what the complete market thinks about it,in that sentence i have not stand in front of an xbox 360 kiosk without hearing some one saying" if you think that look good wait until you see the PS3 games" even from kids which is surpricing.

Did you read my last sentence before replying? I know Sony has the hype behind them... they release a few trailers at e3 and release the MGS4 trailer and ever gets googly-eyed. Needless to say, most people that have seen it don't realize MGS4 isn't coming out until well into 2007, nobody has a clue about Killzone.

They really don't have to do much to stir up hype for their console. Does this have anything to do with Xbox 360 and Revolution not performing well and mixing up the market share? Nope, I didn't really see any point in what you're replying with.

 

[m1nd_x]

That fact that we are debating Sony's sales to either be between 100 million to 200 million in the next five years, is a testament to the Playstation brand. Even the Xbox fans realize that Sony will most likely sell 100 million in five years.

I agree 200 million in five years is really pushing it, but not for the lifetime of that console. PS3 is going to be huge, and no one here can deny that.

Right now I believe the PS2 is way overpriced (compared to it's cost), but Sony feels no need to lower the price because demand is still very high. Sony has a long way to go with the PS2, especially when they introduce a $99 US price point.

Today Sony sells the PS2 at the same price the Xbox sells for, yet the Xbox is easily three times more powerful, and comes with a harddrive. There is no shortage of Xbox titles on the market, as a visit to any store would show you. There are tons of Xbox titles. Yet Sony in Microsoft's strongest market of North America outsells the Xbox on an average of 2 to 3 times.

Sony is thriving in a market with tough competition. Sony will continue to thrive and completely dominate the market in the next generation.

The PS3 will get tons of Japanese exclusive titles, that will drive Xbox 360 owners to own a PS3 also. I don't really see this trend reversing much, with Sony fans buying a 360. Sony sells to everyone, and Microsoft sells to a minority of the market.

I agree, it'd be silly to think they won't hit 100 million. But can you honestly say that you think the market share ratio's and userbase ratio's will stay the same? Or do you think the market won't grow and that it'll stay the same?

 

[Edge]

I agree, it'd be silly to think they won't hit 100 million. But can you honestly say that you think the market share ratio's and userbase ratio's will stay the same? Or do you think the market won't grow and that it'll stay the same?

I think that's too tough to answer. Emerging markets like China, Brazil and India might make a difference in the long run, but we will see. It all depends how the world's economy will do over the next five years.

 

[m1nd_x]

I just think the 'Revolution' and Xbox 360 have a lot of ground that they can make up when compared to how their predecessors performed because they've both have revised goals and about getting more people into the market. I'm not saying they're going to beat Sony. But, I don't think together they'll come up with less than 50% of PS3's install base again. They would have to have something really out of the ordinary happen for them not to even be competitive with Sony.

 

[Edge]

lol, this board is hilarious.}

what do we have, like half a dozen people arguign that sony will sell 200million PS3's in 5 years!???

what planet to you guys come from? delusion?

Two times increase in PS3 sales is delusional to you, but someone has posted a three times increase for Xbox 360 over the Xbox, and you're just fine with that. You're true to form like usual. You whole post comes across like somone who resents the optimism that people have here for the PS3. Too bad.

I wish you would refrain from making insulting comments to get your point across. Moderator?

 

[zidane1strife]

Ps3 will likely sell 150-200m+ throughout the course of its lifespan.

Given that they're using the mature 90nm, they shouldn't've any problems shipping and selling 20m+ in the first 12 months. So given the growing market they should be somewhere around 120~m in five years.

 

[zRifle1z]

No worries, I'm not fired (yet). I was busy with Xmas stuff you know.

As you see the thread has gone way off topic. I for one would like to thank you for being one of the few that has stayed on topic. If you actually work on the PS3, I would also like to thank you for your honesty. I for one would like to purchase the system in the future, but have learned to avoid Sony PR hype, smoke and mirrors until the actual console is out. If there is one thing the 360 has shown for this gen is all three consoles will have great games through out the life of each system.

 

[Hardknock]

Given that they're using the mature 90nm, they shouldn't've any problems shipping and selling 20m+ in the first 12 months.

Isn't Xbox 360 made on 90nm?

 

[expletive]

That fact that we are debating Sony's sales to either be between 100 million to 200 million in the next five years, is a testament to the Playstation brand.

Or a testament on how ridiculous these threads can become when passionate people participate.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

No worries, I'm not fired (yet). I was busy with Xmas stuff you know.
Anyway to answer some questions:
Development is done over the network, just like PS2. No BD or HDD in the devkit. You have all seen the pictures, it looks like something built in someones basement. Very rough in my mind.
Nevertheless it works quite nice and as I mentioned it has the final spec Cell. AFAIK the previous revision had a 2.4Ghz one. I don't really know much about what TypeA and TypeB were. TypeC is what people are working on right now. There is no word if the final card is different and how.
Obviously I can't disclose what studio I work for, but I can say that for now we're just working on next-gen tech and any game using it is easily 18+ months away.

Curious...if it looks like it was built in someone's basement, then you must not be referring to the rackmount units, are you? The image in the E3 slide looked quite sleek, and very slim. The other two kits they showed looked considerably rougher. Like big, hulking oscilloscoped almost. So is it a rackmount or not? The rackmounts were what we were shown as the "final" dev kits. PEACE.