I was working my way through a huge pile of unorganized bookmarks and stumbled upon a article where Trip Hawkins, CEO of 3DO, gave his opinion on how Xbox was going to do (it was right about launch). I remember we were discussing his comments back then (on the old forum), so I though I'd bring this up.
Trip Hawkins on MS and Xbox, Fall 2001
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Microsoft's friendly relations with game developers can't compensate for a flawed concept, said Trip Hawkins, CEO of game publisher 3DO, which has no plans to make Xbox software. Microsoft got into the business too late and for the wrong reasons, Hawkins said.
"Microsoft saw the PS2 a couple of years ago, said, 'This thing is a serious computer without our operating system,' and decided they needed to take some kind of action," Hawkins said. "So they basically built a PC clone because that's what they could get to market quickly. Microsoft is basically taking a defensive strategy in a market where the only thing that works is offense."
The outcome will be evident in less than a year, Hawkins said.
"By spring, Microsoft will have worked their way through the couple million hard-core gamers who are going to be really jazzed by the Xbox hardware," he said. "Then they've got a situation where they have to expand their market either by taking kids away from Nintendo or taking casual gamers away from Sony. I don't think they have what it takes to do that because they came in too late for this cycle of the consoles.
"It won't be until next spring or summer they're going to realize this is a little like the Russian front, and they'll start asking, 'Why are we doing this again?'...I will not be at all surprised if they pull the plug before the year is over."
...
Console makers count on selling many games per console (known as the tie-in ratio) to subsidize hardware costs, and the Xbox lineup is way too shallow to pay off, he said.
"It looks like Xbox will have the worst tie-in ratio in the history of the games business," Hawkins said. "It'll have a couple of killer games for the hard-core gamers, and the rest of them will be rented."
Trip Hawkins on MS and Xbox, Fall 2001
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Microsoft's friendly relations with game developers can't compensate for a flawed concept, said Trip Hawkins, CEO of game publisher 3DO, which has no plans to make Xbox software. Microsoft got into the business too late and for the wrong reasons, Hawkins said.
"Microsoft saw the PS2 a couple of years ago, said, 'This thing is a serious computer without our operating system,' and decided they needed to take some kind of action," Hawkins said. "So they basically built a PC clone because that's what they could get to market quickly. Microsoft is basically taking a defensive strategy in a market where the only thing that works is offense."
The outcome will be evident in less than a year, Hawkins said.
"By spring, Microsoft will have worked their way through the couple million hard-core gamers who are going to be really jazzed by the Xbox hardware," he said. "Then they've got a situation where they have to expand their market either by taking kids away from Nintendo or taking casual gamers away from Sony. I don't think they have what it takes to do that because they came in too late for this cycle of the consoles.
"It won't be until next spring or summer they're going to realize this is a little like the Russian front, and they'll start asking, 'Why are we doing this again?'...I will not be at all surprised if they pull the plug before the year is over."
...
Console makers count on selling many games per console (known as the tie-in ratio) to subsidize hardware costs, and the Xbox lineup is way too shallow to pay off, he said.
"It looks like Xbox will have the worst tie-in ratio in the history of the games business," Hawkins said. "It'll have a couple of killer games for the hard-core gamers, and the rest of them will be rented."
