Interesting conclusion:
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060805-7430.html
Is Hannibal far out on a limb?
Based on these numbers and on the relative performance differences between the P4 and the latest processors from Intel and AMD, I think it's reasonable to guesstimate that a four-core Conroe or Athlon 64 system would get you to the point where you could do real-time ray tracing at 450M raysegs/s or higher. This would put software-based real-time ray tracing well in reach of a God Box in late 2007, and a Performance Gaming Box not too long thereafter. These numbers also make me wonder if you couldn't do real-time ray tracing on a PS3, or even on an Xbox 360 (less concurrency than the PS3, but higher per-thread performance).
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060805-7430.html
Is Hannibal far out on a limb?