PS4/XBOne launch sales numbers

... then ms could face a rough holiday season while confirming the rumored manufacturing disadvantage.

http://m.ign.com/articles/2013/11/22/successful-xbox-launch-means-stock-could-be-scarce
That article doesn't support the view of a production disadvantage. It says availability may be low, but that can be due to high demand as much as low stock. Both consoles will be made as fast as their slowest aspect. In the case of PS3, BRD drives was a small bottleneck (I was going to say huge bottleneck, but a large bottleneck is non-restrictive...). What'll be the slowest component of each console? I think XB1 has more concerns. The SOC is perhaps more vulnerable to issues, maybe they're about the same, but Kinect manufacturing is going to be an link in the chain. For PS4, would GDDR5 availability be an issue?
 
Well i was trying to base my argument on the possibility of sony having out there as twice as many units compared with MS by the end of november. And given both started manufacturing their boxes roughly at the same time. Hopefully we'll get some numbers next week.
 
That gap doesn't make a difference. Launching 2 million consoles across 32 countries will be selling less units than launching 3 million across 13 countries. It all depends how much stock each country gets. That said, PS4 is going to sell more because Sony were able to allocate 1 million to just NA whereas MS had 1 million units WW. We can count perhaps another million PS4's in Rest of World, maybe even more.

It's hard to know about that last part. The only information we have at the moment is...

Sony sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.
Microsoft sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.

Sure for Sony it was limited to NA, but since that is the only region they launched in that represents their current worldwide numbers.

And it's quite likely that once they launch in the rest of the world that demand from 32 countries will certainly be greater than demand from 13 countries. But if you remain supply constrained at 13 countries, does it matter if you launch in more countries?

As you note, availability has zero correlation to number of units sold. If both Sony and MS remain supply constrained when Sony expands to 32 countries that still doesn't tell us how many consoles are being manufactured and sold.

I'm sure we'll get some numbers from both of the come January, though. And we'll be able to get a good idea at that point.

That said at this point I'm expecting PS4 to sell through more units because it seems like Sony started manufacturing earlier than Microsoft and hence will have more units to sell through the end of this year.

Regards,
SB
 
It's hard to know about that last part. The only information we have at the moment is...

Sony sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.
Microsoft sold through >1 million units worldwide in 24 hours.

Sure for Sony it was limited to NA, but since that is the only region they launched in that represents their current worldwide numbers.
It's safe to bet that Sony stockpiled units ready for the European launch though, so total PS4's = 1 million for NA + ? million for EU. And given general hardware sales, I think you'd be looking at about 1 million PS4s for Europe. 500k would be a little thin considering PS3 sold more in EU than NA, but there could be a larger push to secure NA market share.

Whatever the numbers though, Sony definitely has more units at launch than MS even if they haven't sold them yet. The fact both stand at a million apiece currently only holds for a week until PS4 launches elsewhere. Then all that other stock will be released (unless one believes that Sony has zero stockpiles in these countries and subsequent worldwide supply will be limited to monthly production runs, and Sony and MS will be selling 200k a month or whatever regardless of what territories).
 
It's safe to bet that Sony stockpiled units ready for the European launch though, so total PS4's = 1 million for NA + ? million for EU. And given general hardware sales, I think you'd be looking at about 1 million PS4s for Europe. 500k would be a little thin considering PS3 sold more in EU than NA, but there could be a larger push to secure NA market share.

Whatever the numbers though, Sony definitely has more units at launch than MS even if they haven't sold them yet. The fact both stand at a million apiece currently only holds for a week until PS4 launches elsewhere. Then all that other stock will be released (unless one believes that Sony has zero stockpiles in these countries and subsequent worldwide supply will be limited to monthly production runs, and Sony and MS will be selling 200k a month or whatever regardless of what territories).

It's hard to say, if they had a lot of stock there why wait until the 29th? I can understand stockpiling current manufacturing. But if that's the case then you are just diverting units that could be sold into a warehouse waiting for X day. Not much different than MS not stockpiling those same units and just selling whatever they are manufacturing.

If those units have been stockpiled since launch, again, I question why have a split worldwide launch?

I'd think it's more likely that they are just diverting X% of current manufacturing to have at least some stock for the rest of the world. But that doesn't at all say that their manufacturing volume is greater or worse than the competition. It just means they are selling less units in order to have stock for a separate part of the world. If that is the case, then their post launch sales will be a lot lower than you might expect as they divert manufacturing to fill stock for worldwide launch.

And stockpiling pre-NA launch units wouldn't have made any sense, either, IMO. As I said, if they did that, why not just launch worldwide in the first place.

MS could have done the same with having NA then the other 12 countries. They still would have sold through the same amount of units. But they'd sell fewer units between NA launch and worldwide launch as they stockpiled units. And when they finally launched in the rest of the 12 countries they'd still sell through the exact same amount of units as they would have sold through up until that point with a simultaneous world wide launch.

Traditionally you used to have staggered launches because you launch in another country when you expected supply to start being greater than demand, thus you'd end up with excess inventory. Launch in another territory at that point and you put yourself back into the situation where you want to be, demand greater than supply.

With this launch that doesn't exactly follow that model. Sony would still likely sell through 100% of PS4's even if it remained limited to NA through the holiday season.

So, I get that it allows them to have impressive "launch" numbers. But sell through between X launch and Y launch will suffer as units that could be sold are instead stockpiled for Y launch. As opposed to a traditional split launch where Y launch stockpile is formed from inventory that cannot be sold due to supply at that point being greater than demand due to launch windows being 6-12 months apart. So, for PS4, at the end of 1 month, they'll have sold through the exact same amount of units whether they had a split launch like PS4 or whether they launched in all countries they planned to launch in ala MS.

Regards,
SB
 
Silly guess numbers by me:

By end of November, PS4 outsells XB1 somewhere in the range of 3:1 to 4:1.
 
If those units have been stockpiled since launch, again, I question why have a split worldwide launch?
It's only two weeks. That's not a split launch really, at least regards manufacturing. There'll be logistical aspects to consider. eg. Sony have a Channel 4 advertising campaign on the 28th of November. Arranging such deals may have warranted pushing launch back a little further. They may also have had info on when MS were launching, or whereabouts, and wanted to get the drop on XB1, so moved the launch forwards to the beginning of November just for NA.

I'd think it's more likely that they are just diverting X% of current manufacturing to have at least some stock for the rest of the world...
I really don't get your argument. :oops:

Sony are making x units a month, and have been since, let's say July. Let's say four months making units.

Now if they use that entire stock for the NA launch, that'll be 1 million made in 4 months, 250k per month. If they have no extra European stocks, they'll have two weeks manufacturing, 125k units, to supply to the rest of the world.

Alternatively, Sony have been making more than 250k a month. Whatever extra they have made they'd put aside for the EU launch. And yes, they are just sitting on that stock instead of selling it to NA or launching simultaneously in the other countries, but that's not so daft as I describe above. There are reasons why a short delay (not the 6-12 months of a real split launch) could be preferable. Couple that with Sony saying production yields have been good ("phenomenal" according to Tretton) and that they had a million preorders worldwide and that they withheld stock from preorders to provide retail inventory, the million units sold in NA probably represents something like half the preorders. meaning they've lots to sell to elsewhere excluding retail stores.

Sony absolutely have launch stock waiting in warehouses ready to sell, just as they had in NA, and in significant quantities. At the very least there's enough stock to satisfy (a good proportion of) preorders.
 
That gap doesn't make a difference. Launching 2 million consoles across 32 countries will be selling less units than launching 3 million across 13 countries. It all depends how much stock each country gets. That said, PS4 is going to sell more because Sony were able to allocate 1 million to just NA whereas MS had 1 million units WW. We can count perhaps another million PS4's in Rest of World, maybe even more.

The spread does matter a bit to the end users because of timezones.

I only have time to play late at night. So most of my PSN friends are in Europe or Asia.

Looking forward to your launches.
 
Basically it's the last time MS will be able to put out a positive PR unit sales figure for a while, until they're able to launch in the remaining territories. The coming weeks should give us a better picture for both MS and Sony yields.
 
Basically it's the last time MS will be able to put out a positive PR unit sales figure for a while, until they're able to launch in the remaining territories. The coming weeks should give us a better picture for both MS and Sony yields.

I'm sure you will see plenty of positive PR from both companies until the end of time.
 
If they both stay supply constrained, how soon can we expect to see press releases with NPOPW (New Pre-Orders Per Week) numbers :D

YoY growth in NPOPW and NPOPW is historically the highest ever for any console etc etc etc :p
 
Sarcasm?

I agree with silly though.
Must be. My guess is 1.6M for XBOne and 2.7M for PS4 by the end of November. I think Sony allocated slightly more for the launch in Europe than they did in the US. I think both MS and Sony reserved a couple hundred thousand for Black Friday.
 
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Who cares about now, its what theyre selling in 6 months time that matters.
the wii u had sold > 1.5 million in just over its first month and look at it 6 months later
 
It's nice to see both Sony and Mircosoft doing well. It means we still have a healthy console market.
Yes, I still think that Sony have the faithful crowd and a good chunk of the core crowd which helps, but I expect a healthy market indeed and hope that one console doesn't outperform the others by more than 2 to 1.

WiiU is still the "unknown quantity" as of now.
 
Basically it's the last time MS will be able to put out a positive PR unit sales figure for a while, until they're able to launch in the remaining territories. The coming weeks should give us a better picture for both MS and Sony yields.
Competition is good so I expect a bit of parity although I am conscious that the Xbox One has it harder at the moment because of the price difference.
 
Competition is good so I expect a bit of parity although I am conscious that the Xbox One has it harder at the moment because of the price difference.

I agree the price is an issue for XB1 but the US I expect some surprises with NPD, this is MS's home turf and a pretty important talking point. In spite of what we are hearing in forums and online I would not be a bit surprised if somehow MS pulls off a win in November even if its only a slight win in the US.
 
I agree the price is an issue for XB1 but the US I expect some surprises with NPD, this is MS's home turf and a pretty important talking point. In spite of what we are hearing in forums and online I would not be a bit surprised if somehow MS pulls off a win in November even if its only a slight win in the US.

GDEX score at gametrailers favors XB1 since its launch whereas previously there was a clear lead that favored PS4. Its probably because the XB1 launched in more countries and therefore more people talk about it or there is a change of heart for the XB1. Indeed I wonder if we are going to be surprised.
 
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