PS4 initial cost analysis

I'm wondering if both console makers are going to be hit hard by the rather dramatic price increases for memory that the industry is experiencing at the moment?

For example the same 2x8 GB DDR3 1866 memory kit that I got 3 months ago for ~60 USD is now 99 USD.

There's a similar price increase for all memory across the board it seems

Maybe the price increase is because of massive RAM shipments to console makers, so foundries can't produce as many units for the retail? I think I'm stretching it :)
 
Maybe the price increase is because of massive RAM shipments to console makers, so foundries can't produce as many units for the retail? I think I'm stretching it :)

Or the fact that Microsoft is asking for so much memory is what's causing the increased price of RAM in the first place. Chicken and egg scenario. Like I said before, there is no doubt Microsoft is getting its DDR3 RAM at a lower price than retail, that's the entire point of a contract.
 
Revised analysis.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 65-80
8GB GDDR5 - 80-105
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 10-18
Video encode/decode chip - 0 (included in OS chip, we figure)
Blu-ray drive - 25-35
Hard drive - 30-35
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 10-30
DS4 - 20-29
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Total parts/silicon - 272-364

Other costs:

Internal PSU - 27-40
Cooling - 33-50
Assembly - 15-20

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - 390-430 (Does not include PS Camera since it is not bundled)

Accessories:

PS4 Eye -12-20

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=64518336&postcount=570
 

So you add in retailer cut, R&D costs, and other small stuff and they are probably losing $50-70. A far cry from the $240 to $300 from the PS3.

Have we seen a similar breakdown for the Xbox One? Since I doubt Kinect actually costs $100 and 8GB DDR3 RAM should be far cheaper than the 4Gb GDDR5 chips Sony is using, could it be that Microsoft is actually overall profitable just by selling the console? That would be a real flip considering Nintendo is the only other OEM to ever do that (and the Wii U was selling for a loss as well).
 

Eh? Their math doesn't add up.

They go from

Total parts/silicon - 272-364

To

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - 390-430 (Does not include PS Camera since it is not bundled)

When this is added?

Internal PSU - 27-40
Cooling - 33-50
Assembly - 15-20

That should be total estimated system cost of: 347-474 (I'm assuming USD?). I guess they are just assuming it'll be somewhere in the middle and lopped off 44 USD at the top and added 43 USD at the bottom? In that case, why even bother with the ranges in the first place.

All sounds like purely guesswork, and using guessed at numbers per part to make it more believable. In other words, feel free to come up with your own numbers for things and it'll likely be just as accurate. :)

Also, no cost estimate for the case? That's lumped in with other? Such a small number to be inclusive of the case itself? What about the PCB mainboard? Is that lumped In with "other" as well? That other number is definitely looking to be too small.

Regards,
SB
 
zomgbbqftw has a new update, price is very very close to what it cost at retail now, irc 390-430 USD. So Sony just have to sell 1 or 2 games, or 1 PSN+ sub to break even.
 
Eh? Their math doesn't add up.

They go from



To



When this is added?



That should be total estimated system cost of: 347-474 (I'm assuming USD?). I guess they are just assuming it'll be somewhere in the middle and lopped off 44 USD at the top and added 43 USD at the bottom? In that case, why even bother with the ranges in the first place.

All sounds like purely guesswork, and using guessed at numbers per part to make it more believable. In other words, feel free to come up with your own numbers for things and it'll likely be just as accurate. :)

Also, no cost estimate for the case? That's lumped in with other? Such a small number to be inclusive of the case itself? What about the PCB mainboard? Is that lumped In with "other" as well? That other number is definitely looking to be too small.

Regards,
SB

The order of the numbers is clear, just combining two steps, final parts total plus packing and shipping. The OT describes who he works for and how they come to the numbers. This is what he does for a living and is far from guesswork. They are estimates, that he says. But it is his group at the bank that does this for all major electronics to try to see how quarterly earnings and thus stock prices are hurt/helped by cost vs MSRP.
 
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