I refuse to take either of these sites seriously. VGCharts is just as wrong as Nexgenwars, so please stop posting anything about them or I'll reach for the ignore button...
More sales charts... (US)
- Thread starter London Geezer
- Start date
I refuse to take either of these sites seriously. VGCharts is just as wrong as Nexgenwars, so please stop posting anything about them or I'll reach for the ignore button...
There are.
http://www.gfk.com/
For example, this data by Nintendo for the 4 European markets (the UK, Germany, France, Spain) is obtained from GfK.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=891034&postcount=354
EDIT: Also this one.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=819585&postcount=20
That's going to be the new line from detractors.
"Sure they sold 1 million. But that's only half of the 2 million they promised!"
"They promised to launch in the spring so 1 million or 2 million by the end of 2006 spells DOOM for Sony! X360 FTW!"
You understimate detractors. Surely they will say, "You promised 4M, and denied shortages, hinted at a 50% drop, then denied that, THEN announced 2M as if you always had promised that... and THEN shipped 1M, and got all excited about hitting your 'goal' of 1M units. Oh, and you were 9 months late. 360 FTW!"
See, detractors can do better that that! Or a more snide one liner would be:
"PS3 Launch: KK demoted. 'Nuff said".
Or if you want to be cheeky:
Cost to render 120 seconds of CGI for E3: $7,500,000
Cost to Launch 4M PS3s Worldwide: $900,000,000
Unforseen Diode Costs: $800,000,000
Retail PS3: $599
2 Games and a Controller: $160
Look on consumers faces when they play Untold Legend: Priceless.
These roll off the tongue as easy as the M$ slams and the Wii Wii jokes. The joys of parity
You really need to work on your detractor immitation. Although I think I about killed one this weekend when I said I was seriously thinking about getting a PS3. Something like how when you say you don't believe in fairies one dies, but in this case Xbox fans die when you say you will buy a PS3. Give it a try sometime, it could thin out the forums some!This one is for hardware.
http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showpost.php?p=891034&postcount=354
This is the cumulative sales in this year for the 4 EU countries.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/n10/061207/slide_l/img/slide_l36.gif
They're from this Nintendo press conference and Iwata gets a bit sarcastic toward Microsoft saying though it's often reported as if Microsoft was strong in the West because the UK data is easily available among European countries, it's not true for the whole Europe as long as you look at the data for the 4 EU countries.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/n10/061207/05.html
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And I'd still like to know how vgcharts is giving out NA numbers when we haven't seen December's NPD. Are they extrapolating based on other sources? And if so, why is that better than what nexgenwars does?
This is the way VGcharts probably extrapolates their numbers.
Americas =(NPD X 1.2 (accounts for the 20% under reporting typical of NPD numbers compared to MS)) X 1.1 (accounts for the additional sales attributed to Canada).
In between NPD releases
Americas =(Previous Americas number) + ((sum of unreliable estimates from analysts)/the total number of unreliable analysts)
Japan = ((Sum of the three major janpanese tracking sites)/3) + (some noise to make the method of extrapolation less obvious.)
Others = ((Americas #s) X 0.5 (50% of Americas numbers)+(some noise to make the method of extrapolation less obvious.))
Americas =(NPD X 1.2 (accounts for the 20% under reporting typical of NPD numbers compared to MS)) X 1.1 (accounts for the additional sales attributed to Canada).
In between NPD releases
Americas =(Previous Americas number) + ((sum of unreliable estimates from analysts)/the total number of unreliable analysts)
Japan = ((Sum of the three major janpanese tracking sites)/3) + (some noise to make the method of extrapolation less obvious.)
Others = ((Americas #s) X 0.5 (50% of Americas numbers)+(some noise to make the method of extrapolation less obvious.))
NA estimates for the Nov-December 25th Console sales, according to CNBC
CNBC says:
Nov 1 -December 25th
xbox360- 2 mil
Nintendo Wii- 1.8mil
PS3- 750k
NA estimates for the Nov-December 25th Console sales, according to CNBC
CNBC says:
Nov 1 -December 25th
xbox360- 2 mil
Nintendo Wii- 1.8mil
PS3- 750k
NA estimates for the Nov-December 25th Console sales, according to CNBC
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Those numbers are very good for MS. That probably puts them somewhere around 9-10 million sold through retail altogether (worldwide). They were probably hoping for closer to 12 million sold by now when they decided to launch early, but they're still doing extremely well considering the price point is $299/$399. They probably thought Sony would be closer to 3 million now instead of around 1.5 million, so altogether not a bad result.
It'll be interesting to see how 6 million units in US gamers hands vs. around 1 million for Sony will sway casual and second tier buyers over the next 6 months, and how much latent demand there is for the PS3. Do 2 million want one right away? 4 million? Hard to say.
When will games be more important than hype/blu-ray for PS3? Will grandpa really buy a Wii after bowling after Christmas dinner? Will anyone care about the new franchises MS has secured? Other hard questions to answer...
2007 is going to be VERY interesting.
It'll be interesting to see how 6 million units in US gamers hands vs. around 1 million for Sony will sway casual and second tier buyers over the next 6 months, and how much latent demand there is for the PS3. Do 2 million want one right away? 4 million? Hard to say.
When will games be more important than hype/blu-ray for PS3? Will grandpa really buy a Wii after bowling after Christmas dinner? Will anyone care about the new franchises MS has secured? Other hard questions to answer...
2007 is going to be VERY interesting.
Yes if you're going to use one of these sites use Vgcharts. While skewed, his numbers are much more conservative. From reading his post on GAF he has very detailed methodology. It's probably all wrong, but it's apparant he knows the numbers well.
I see vgcharts becoming more used around the web and wouldn't be surprised if the site gets pretty popular..
He actually derived some of his methods from Sony shipments being over NPD..
If I recall back when the switched to PStwo, he decided store shelves had to be clear of inventory before the switch (Sony cleared out all the old inventory before moving to PStwo), so he compared Sony shipped PS2 LTD versus NPD sales LTD at that point, and got his correction factor.
But yeah, basic principle..he's probably fine tuned it also..
Personally I kind of doubt NPD consistently undercounts, but whatever..oh also that correction is accounting for Canada (5-10%)
Probably the worst offender in the bloated ship numbers is Sony. They have crazy PSP ship numbers versus sales, and a big gap in PS2 as well. MS is a good second, with the well known 10 million thing. But the thing is some companies apparently count every last refurb, demo unit, giveaway, etc as a shipped. Also Sony counts shipped when they leave the factory I've read, which could lead to many weeks of lead time. Ms supposedly only counts when they leave the distribution center..supposedly.
I'm not sure how those sites do that..most likely not neccesarily your conclusion, but probably just takes a educated guess at monthly sales, then prorates it per day or however often they update. Then perhaps changes the basis guess if new credible info comes in (a lot of the analyst guesses are really not credible).
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http://www.majornelson.com/
Major Nelson has this chart of some interest up:
I'm a bit surprised at a few things, such as how Uno trounced Texas Hold Em. It is good and predictable to see SF2 up there, that game is a lot of fun on live. If I notice a trend, it's perhaps old arcade favorites top the new original content so far in sales. But there is a good mix anyway, just to be in the top 20 is pretty succesful itself. I have noticed a lot of newbie (0 wins) SF2 players on live since Christmas, no doubt all the new system owners. The thing is about SF2, it's such a tried and true formula, I can see it staying among top sales basically forever. It's a license to print money seems to me.
Also these less interesting (I think these are most played on Live?)
Major Nelson has this chart of some interest up:
I'm a bit surprised at a few things, such as how Uno trounced Texas Hold Em. It is good and predictable to see SF2 up there, that game is a lot of fun on live. If I notice a trend, it's perhaps old arcade favorites top the new original content so far in sales. But there is a good mix anyway, just to be in the top 20 is pretty succesful itself. I have noticed a lot of newbie (0 wins) SF2 players on live since Christmas, no doubt all the new system owners. The thing is about SF2, it's such a tried and true formula, I can see it staying among top sales basically forever. It's a license to print money seems to me.
Also these less interesting (I think these are most played on Live?)
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quest55720
Regular
Lets say the crazy insane Wii demand does not die down any time soon and nintendo gets production up. What kind of impact on the industry would the Wii being first or close second after 2007 world wide have? Would 3rd party developers move some of thier A teams to the Wii or would they put a bunch of B teams on the Wii trying to make a quick buck like they did on the DS but failed misserable? I am just curious what you all thought some of the impact would be of the Wii being first come end of 2007?
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Readykilowatt
Regular
If the Wii totally dominates the PS3 in sales, not only will Sony suffer but many third party devs backing Sony for all these years will suffer too (that's if they dont adapt to the Wii). The Wii is bringing in a massive amount of "new" gamers and these people do not care so much about Metal Gear Solid, Silent Hill, Resident Evil, Tekken, etc.
For example, how many copies had Final Fantasy (a well established franchise) for the DS sold compared to Brain Training for the DS?
Depends which target you go by! By the time the figure was dropped to 1 million, IIRC, that was '1 million in the pipeline' with no explanation what pipeline meant. I understood that to be worldwide.
Doesn't matter really. We can forget all the moving targets and now see exactly what's selling, and most importantly, how production is ramping. Which is...350,000 PS3's in a month? Not great.
Ehh? PS3 sold 200k in NA last month, it's up to what, 300k+ in Japan. It probably did 500k min in NA in Dec.
They're actually doing clearly shipping more than Xbox360 at this time last year, and not only that but they're spreading over only two territories not 3.
And Sony were talking of ramping up to 1.2 million PS3's a month, which they need. Sony need a substantial user base quickly, and a few hundred thousands units a month isn't going to manage that.
