PS4 initial cost analysis

[Hardknock]

Thought this was interesting. Someone with connections has done a cost analysis over on neogaf: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=514688

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

Over course this doesn't include R&D, packaging, shipment, etc... What do you guys think?

 

[Arwin]

I think the GDDR5 costs may be on the high end, but there's also the controller and PS Eye 2.0, and a Move controller included, hopefully, though maybe still optional.

 

[DJ12]

There is no OS chip that we've heard about. We've heard about 2 custom chips that do specific jobs and people are jumping to conclusions.

 

[inefficient]

I would add powersupply and cooling system. Heavy duty cooling system and a high quality powersupply like the original PS3 had isn't cheap.

 

[Hardknock]

There is no OS chip that we've heard about. We've heard about 2 custom chips that do specific jobs and people are jumping to conclusions.

The OS chip is what's used for the 'low power' state which allows for always on connectivity. This same chip would handle background downloads when using the system.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There is no OS chip that we've heard about. We've heard about 2 custom chips that do specific jobs and people are jumping to conclusions.

It was definitely mentioned in the presentation as a custom chip that handles background functions. Maybe 'OS chip' is a misnomer, but the custom silicon is understood and an ARM is both suitable and something readily costed, so it doesn't hurt to use that as a reference point for the BOM speculation.

 

[BoardBonobo]

There is no OS chip that we've heard about. We've heard about 2 custom chips that do specific jobs and people are jumping to conclusions.

I'd heard it was a Tegra 4 with 32Gb and a frock.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

I think the background/OS CPU, if it's something like an ARM, would be inside the SoC.
They already have a >300mm^2 consuming over 100W, why would they put something like a NEON-less ~1GHz Cortex A7 in a separate chip? That would be like +1W and +3mm^2 in the SoC.

I think those memory prices are way overrated.

 

[Hardknock]

I think the GDDR5 costs may be on the high end, but there's also the controller and PS Eye 2.0, and a Move controller included, hopefully, though maybe still optional.

I think the background/OS CPU, if it's something like an ARM, would be inside the SoC.
They already have a >300mm^2 consuming over 100W, why would they put something like a NEON-less ~1GHz Cortex A7 in a separate chip? That would be like +1W and +3mm^2 in the SoC.

I think those memory prices are way overrated.

Both of you guys are saying these memory prices are overboard. What would you estimate them to be?

 

[upnorthsox]

Memory way over, more like $56-72 range (3.50-4.50 p/chip). Anything more and it becomes cheaper to roll your own. They wont have to though as it represents a 160 million chip per year contract which will be around the 3.50 mark.

HDD is too high by $10-15.

ARM ip would be on SoC and license would be in the $1-2 range tops.

I know HDMI isn't cheap but wtf, at that price it'd been DOA a long time ago. More like 1.10 - 1.50.

 

[tunafish]

Memory way over, more like $56-72 range (3.50-4.50 p/chip). Anything more and it becomes cheaper to roll your own. They wont have to though as it represents a 160 million chip per year contract which will be around the 3.50 mark.

There is exactly one supplier for 4Gb GDDR5 chips right now, and I rather doubt they could roll their own if they wanted to. 4Gb GDDR5 chips are, for now, as expensive as any memory has ever been.

 

[expletive]

I'd be interested in an estimate on how much the additional 4GB of GDDR5 would cost, on average, for the life of the console. If we assume 7 years, 80 million units sold, and an average cost of $40 extra for the 4GB, that would be $3.2bn over the life of the machine?!?

 

[upnorthsox]

There is exactly one supplier for 4Gb GDDR5 chips right now, and I rather doubt they could roll their own if they wanted to. 4Gb GDDR5 chips are, for now, as expensive as any memory has ever been.

And yet Sony will now be using 8GB of it, something changed to make the improbable possible and the obvious would be price.

And I highly doubt Sony would be afraid to roll their own if it meant saving billions $$$.

 

[rockaman]

If I'm just going to ballpark it... using your estimates.

I think the real world cost we should peg at $500 to $550 per unit. Just adding $100 as insurance to all whatever miscellaneous costs need to be considered like labour and technical advisory.... things I don't know.... you know, the works

I think $500 to start is a good number for manufacturing.

 

[Love_In_Rio]

And yet Sony will now be using 8GB of it, something changed to make the improbable possible and the obvious would be price.

And I highly doubt Sony would be afraid to roll their own if it meant saving billions $$$.

Sure, the possibility to go to 8GB was in fact the possibility to reach a price agreement. They must have reduced the GB price to make it feasible. Surely it was a last minute change and maybe thats the reason they didnt show the console, they will have to redesign the cooling solution.
It was a very tactic movement against MS. They now don´t have even the memory amount PR talk to fight against hardware specs.

 

[dumbo11]

Video encode/decode chip - 8-12

I thought that was done by the video encode/decode modules in the AMD GPU?

 

[Love_In_Rio]

I thought that was done by the video encode/decode modules in the AMD GPU?

I think so, and its standard in all the latest AMD GPUs.

 

[VGAddict]

I would imagine they're selling it at a loss.

Didn't Sony JUST now make a profit?

 

[DJ12]

I think they will price match Microsoft. If Ms go high Sony may sell for a profit if not sell for a small loss per unit.

Both console will be within $50 of each other

 

[NathansFortune]

Memory way over, more like $56-72 range (3.50-4.50 p/chip). Anything more and it becomes cheaper to roll your own. They wont have to though as it represents a 160 million chip per year contract which will be around the 3.50 mark.

HDD is too high by $10-15.

ARM ip would be on SoC and license would be in the $1-2 range tops.

I know HDMI isn't cheap but wtf, at that price it'd been DOA a long time ago. More like 1.10 - 1.50.

There is only one supplier for 4Gb GDDR5 chips, you can bet that there is a premium attached to them, at least until Micron and Samsung join the market and drive prices down.

Sony already licence ARM, so agreed, that estimate is too high. HDMI is costly, especially if Sony are going for HDMI 2 because of the 4K push from corporate. Sony are releasing 4K TVs this year and 4K OLED next year, I'm sure they would want PS4 to be compatible with these TVs from the start rather than having to release a revision and piss off original owners.