PS3 ready for large scale global launch?

[BenSkywalker]

I don't post very often any more but I do lurk constantly and while reading up on all the updaets concerning the status of the PS3 something dawned on me- there is nothing stopping Sony from having PS3 production fully ramped right now. Everything we have heard has made the implication clear that the DRM end of BluRay is holding up the finalization of the machine, this being the case there is nothing stopping Sony from having the PS3 assembly line up and functioning awaiting that singular component. A lot of the comments coming out of the global Sony family seem to indicate that they are confident on a relatively close proximity launch- not in the sense of pushing the 'Spring launch' mantra but going well above and beyond that and indicating that even Europe will see a launch relaitvely soon.

This combined with the obviously incredible yields nV is seeing on their 90nm production seems to indicate that outside of Cell production and the BluRay DRM issue there isn't any elements we can't quantify with relative certainty about what could be holding the launch up. Thinking of it from a business perspective it would seem reasonable that they would have started stockpiling systems awaiting the final components- or perhaps if the DRM issues remaining are ones that can be resolved around a flash of firmware perhaps they are already in full production of the machine.

I type this as my son is sitting six feet away from me playing Kameo on my 360, it isn't like I'm some Sony loyalist(those that know me will likely tell you quite the opposite) but the comments coming out of Sony right now go far beyond the typical CYA BS we get- it seems that they are confident they will be shipping in quantity fairly soon.

 

[pipo]

Could be, but:

Reports are suggesting that Sony's suppliers, such as Compeq in Taiwan, have scheduled component manufacturing plans for June, which would suggest a late 2006 launch. But a hardware launch, especially one this complicated, hinges on more than having a few components ready and waiting in a bucket.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2450&Itemid=2

And there's also that NVidia tidbit about 'starting deliveries in April' or something...

The only partner who's fabbing for sure is IBM.

 

[Jawed]

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=28999

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=28841

Jawed

 

[BenSkywalker]

And there's also that NVidia tidbit about 'starting deliveries in April' or something...

The only partner who's fabbing for sure is IBM.

I've seen lots of comments about these issues but, what do nVidia's and IBM's fabs have to do with the PS3 production? I know that nV engineers and IBM engineers were helping to get Sony's own brand new fab plant up and running- but beyond that I haven't been able to link what particularly the deliveries comment is talking about- unless that is when nVidia expects to start seeing licensing kickbacks at that point.

Reports are suggesting that Sony's suppliers, such as Compeq in Taiwan, have scheduled component manufacturing plans for June

I had read this article previously, this is one of the ones that got me thinking- what exactly is Compaq supplying for Sony? I am a bit loathe to believe anything the media has been saying in general about Sony's suppliers as they keep talking about IBM and nVidia and their deliveries of PS3 chips when Sony has been very public about the multi billion dollar fab they built with the main goal of making chips for the PS3.

If we get royalties in Q2, it'd be at the end of the quarter, and not significant.
=> What they produce in June, we get in July, royalty-wise (one-month royalties at a time).

In order for them to get royalties in Q2 that would indicate a May launch....

 

[superguy]

Can we lock this thread? Until we get official comments from the companies involved it's nothing but rumors and speculation.

 

[nintenho]

Sometimes, I think of this place like a blog. All opinion, all attitude, and very little information....yeah, huh?


I'm kidding of course, but what do you expect us to contribute to this thead?

 

[Megadrive1988]

nope, it seems there will be no global launch

Sony "definitely not" committing to simultaneous US, Euro launch for PS3

 

[Nicked]

nope, it seems there will be no global launch

Sony "definitely not" committing to simultaneous US, Euro launch for PS3

Well I agree, but not committing is hardly the same thing as not happening.

 

[j^aws]

From the Morgan Stanley webcast,

NRA: "We are signed up to build the RSX for Sony, to port RSX to multiple fabs to increase the capacity."
- Had the think in terms of being able to build 30M units a year. Needed to potentially repeat the PS2 success.

Well they certainly are looking at very large volumes. Could they translate that volume at launch time? We'll have to wait and see...

In a world where globalisation is more prominent I expect the launch window between Japan, NA and Europe to be smaller for PS3. E.g.

S1 launch

JPN->NA->Europe ~ 10 Months gap

S2 launch

JPN->NA->Europe ~ 8 Months gap

I expect the PS3 launch gap to be less than eight months. If they could launch, and more or less satisfy demand in 2006, in all 3 major territories and Fiji, then I'd grant that a major success!

IIRC, PS1 had NA and Europe launch in the same month of September '95, and PS2 October and November '00 respectively. I'd be disappointed if they weren't as close for PS3. Especially with their fab investments and mature 90nm tech...

 

[Sethamin]

So first the absence of information implies bad things, and now the absence of information implies good things? Why doesn't anyone think that the absence of information means precisely that - there's no new information to report?

 

[j^aws]

So first the absence of information implies bad things, and now the absence of information implies good things? Why doesn't anyone think that the absence of information means precisely that - there's no new information to report?

What are you talking about? This is a discussion forum... with that logic every forum would be dead!

 

[Megadrive1988]

From the Morgan Stanley webcast,



Well they certainly are looking at very large volumes. Could they translate that volume at launch time? We'll have to wait and see...

In a world where globalisation is more prominent I expect the launch window between Japan, NA and Europe to be smaller for PS3. E.g.

S1 launch

JPN->NA->Europe ~ 10 Months gap

S2 launch

JPN->NA->Europe ~ 8 Months gap

I expect the PS3 launch gap to be less than eight months. If they could launch, and more or less satisfy demand in 2006, in all 3 major territories and Fiji, then I'd grant that a major success!

IIRC, PS1 had NA and Europe launch in the same month of September '95, and PS2 October and November '00 respectively. I'd be disappointed if they weren't as close for PS3. Especially with their fab investments and mature 90nm tech...

agreed. I expect a 3 to 6 month gap between Japan and NA launches. UK-Europe should be another month behind NA, about the same as PS2.

 

[Nick Laslett]

Sometimes, I think of this place like a blog. All opinion, all attitude, and very little information....yeah, huh?

Can we lock this thread? Until we get official comments from the companies involved it's nothing but rumors and speculation.

The irony of these two posts appearing one after another gave me a laugh.

It's only 8.30am here in the UK, so it was most welcome, keep it up lads.

 

[Phil]

I don't post very often any more but I do lurk constantly and while reading up on all the updaets concerning the status of the PS3 something dawned on me- there is nothing stopping Sony from having PS3 production fully ramped right now. Everything we have heard has made the implication clear that the DRM end of BluRay is holding up the finalization of the machine, this being the case there is nothing stopping Sony from having the PS3 assembly line up and functioning awaiting that singular component. A lot of the comments coming out of the global Sony family seem to indicate that they are confident on a relatively close proximity launch- not in the sense of pushing the 'Spring launch' mantra but going well above and beyond that and indicating that even Europe will see a launch relaitvely soon.

This combined with the obviously incredible yields nV is seeing on their 90nm production seems to indicate that outside of Cell production and the BluRay DRM issue there isn't any elements we can't quantify with relative certainty about what could be holding the launch up. Thinking of it from a business perspective it would seem reasonable that they would have started stockpiling systems awaiting the final components- or perhaps if the DRM issues remaining are ones that can be resolved around a flash of firmware perhaps they are already in full production of the machine.

I type this as my son is sitting six feet away from me playing Kameo on my 360, it isn't like I'm some Sony loyalist(those that know me will likely tell you quite the opposite) but the comments coming out of Sony right now go far beyond the typical CYA BS we get- it seems that they are confident they will be shipping in quantity fairly soon.

Excellent post Ben. I can vouch for that last paragraph - good times indeed (the debates with certain members a couple years ago)

Anyway, I think you're on to something. They do seem to be very confident and I'm really wondering how quick a launch will follow after the official revelation of the console. I really can't see them launching in the Japan and then waiting a few months to follow with US / EU launches. If anything, I think they'll be targeting a holiday launch with enough units to walk that fine line between satisfying demand but having enough in stock to keep the flow in high numbers. I find Japan a difficult region to predict, simply because they can be very confident there since it's basically their territory and Microsoft isn't really making a dent there. On the other hand, the US and Euroland are important markets and Microsoft already is off to a good start there. I would think it's important that PS3 does make the holiday-christmas timeframe in those two territories... having said that, I do think that something close to a global launch could be quite likely. In fact, I see this as more likely than spec upgrades and a very late launch...

 

[MechanizedDeath]

Since this is al speculation/conjecture, I would like to add a few of my thoughts:

1. I think the change to region-compatibility between Japan and the US might be more than just broadcast standards. Sure, they're both NTSC, but I don't think it even matters for BD. I think NA and JP sharing the same region for BD releases suggests a close tie with the two territories. I wouldn't expect the NA release to be very far off the JP one, contrary to popular opinion. Then again, I base this on nothing but a hunch.

2. For all the continued assurance that the launch is delayed past Spring (mid-June), there isn't anything definitive/firm. Even the so-called confirmations are mere speculation. We saw the wide berth Sony gave the PSP delay. They announced it half a year ahead of the eventual launch. Sony would be waiting until really late in the day for this one, and in about a month, they'll have their annual report. Since they are to announce unexpected profits, I would assume the delay announcement will come before the shareholder meeting, and not after, so as to carry momentum through to the Summer.

3. BD movie releases are still lined up for late-Spring. Are studios gonna enjoy releasing movies to a format that doesn't have its trump card yet? I thought the great Hollywood support really hinged on PS3 sales driving proliferation of the format. A delay causes problems for BD as a format.

Just some thoughts. Sooner or later, Sony has to pop the lid on the PS3 news. PEACE.

 

[Guden Oden]

Early infos on PS3 availability after launch (perhaps!)

In this B3D thread, Nvidia speaks about RSX manufacturing, and mentions they aim at a production rate of 30M units/year.

Apparantly, RSX is in production NOW in fact, or at least that's the way I interpreted it.

Perhaps shortages won't be as bad as some have speculated, perhaps simultaneous worldwide launch will be possible. Perhaps.

 

[jb]

I'd have to disagree with Ben as if they did have such "stockpiles" I would think we would be hearing a lot more about this..when in fact we are hearing almost nothing. We all know how Sony likes to beat their own Marketing Drum and I just doubt that they would be so silent if that were the case... but just my arm chair guess

 

[BenSkywalker]

Maybe you guys are right, maybe their is no chance of a global launch......

Sony is in the process of ramping up fab number three building chips for the PS3- the launch is coming a bit later then what I was thinking but I didn't see any way they would be pulling up a third fabrication facility for a Japan only launch eight months from now(that wouldn't make any sense).

 

[ROG27]

Holy crap....prediction of the year! Good job BenSkywalker.

 

[j^aws]

Maybe you guys are right, maybe their is no chance of a global launch......
...

Good call! The NV comment at 30 M/year capacity was very telling. I suspected all 3 territories to be slightly staggered but simultaneous was a surprise. Maybe that was the "surprise" they were alluding too...