Shifty Geezer said:
For me, the way I see it what is XB360 going to have genre-wise that PS3 won't? It's got PGR and racers, but PS3 will have GT and racer. It's got FPSes, and so will PS3. It's got platformers like Kameo, and PS3 will have platformers like Jak/Ratchet.
Oh I wasn't trying to imply that Xbox360 lacks genres and games that are on PS2 and will be on the PS3 eventually - what I was specifically saying is that Xbox360 currently isn't offering something that will make PlayStation owners magically drop their console of choice and run out to stores.
But let me start differently now that I have a bit more time on my hands for a longer reply:
Consider the following:
At the beginning of a consoles launch - beginning as in launch + initial year of the consoles debut - its consumers are made up of
1.) hardcore gamers,
2.) loyal platform supporters (fans) and
3.) casuals out to buy a new toy that's considered to be cutting-edge new and will last them a couple of years.
I'm obviously guessing here, but I think it's fair to assume that the largest part of initial buyers are the ones made up of hardcore gamers & loyal platform supporters. The rest ( 3 ) will probably make up for below 30% of those initial buyers.
As the months pass, I'd say it's reasonable to assume that the casuals gain more and more importance over the hardcore gamers & loyal platform supporters. This is attributed especially to the increase in software but also price drops and the fact that they too would want to use their consoles for around a 5 years cycle.
Now, considering the above, I will safely assume that the Xbox360 when it will launch at the end of this year, will be predominantly bought by hardcore gamers and its own set of loyal Xbox supporters. Casuals will, as with any console, be of a very small percentage - if even less than expected because
many of them will have just have bought a PStwo not too long ago and won't be rushing out to shops to buy an expensive new console.
The time when the group of casuals will slowly pick-up is when, as mentioned above, there are price-drops, more software and their old console start to become outdated. I'm not sure anyone can make accurate as to when this happens, but I wouldn't think within the first year of the Xbox 360s launch. Now, if we assume that this shift occurs around 1 to 1.5 years after the console's debut, the PlayStation 3 will have already been launched - and it too, will have sold heaps in that time, thanks to hardcore gamers and especially loyal platform supporters. If we look up to when PS2 launched, we will see that Sony managed to sell roughly 10 million units within the first year. This is unparalleld so far in console history and I see especially one reason: mind-share. At the time PS2 launched, PSone enjoyed sales of over 70 million units world-wide - a big percentage of course being casuals, but also many casuals that over time of being happy PlayStation owners transformed into loyal supporters. Loyal supporters that then went out and bought a PS2 within that first year, despite an impressive Dreamcast at the time.
Now if we fast forward to December, we'll see that with the launch of Xbox360, there will be roughly
95 million PS2owners outthere, many of which I expect to be happy owners as well - many of which will have turned into loyal supporters as well.
If we go by current sales numbers, we have roughly 20 million Xbox owners and roughly 20 million GameCube owners outthere (actually, I'm not quite sure about the current number, but for the sake of the point, it should be accurate enough).
If we subtract that from the PS2 userbase, we're left with around
~50 million of PS2 owners that appear to be exclusive to the PlayStation brand at the moment (and this is best-case scenario as I'm sure not every Xbox & GameCube owner owns a PS2).
Now, obviously, we don't know how many of the above mentioned 50 million PS2 owners are casuals, hardcore and loyal supporters, but also here, I'd expect a fair part of them to have become at least somewhat supporters as well, if not for the fact that they enjoy the games they're playing and will be looking out for franchises they know next generation.
Thing is, once Xbox360 will start to gain popularity among casual gamers, PS3 will almost certainly be on the market for a while as well, enjoying rising sales of its own. The question I think is the important one is if those casuals, those 50 million PS2 owners today, are they going to go out and buy a Xbox360 or a PS3? To answer that question, I think software will play a significant factor - software that yet isn't around.
I suppose it's my opinion, but I think if Microsoft seriously wants to get a big fat chunk of those 50 million to convert over to their console, they need more of the same kind. The games Microsoft over will have to be better than the PS3 ones, more innovative and simply different to make people want to change. If they fail to deliver on this, I don't see why many of the today's exclusive PS2 owners would shift. In fact, what they need IMO are key-exclusives that are appeared on PlayStation this generation. Final Fantasies, GTA's.. you name it. Or they need to build new IPs that grow to similar successes and will make an impact.
). You just shovel your wares out there and maybe one will take off. Next gen Sony are in a strong position, but for all we know suddenly Nintendo get the cred and whizz to the fore? Or Maybe Sony can still ride the wave of the PlayStation brand in the same way Apple continue with iPod's sales success despite there being other better rivals.