I concede that Sony has a wondrously difficult challenge in front of them if they are to attempt to outpace both MS and Intel on the tools front "alone."
The caveat that I offer is throwing IBM back into the equation. If IBM wishes to retain Sony ( Sony is as much a customer as it is a partner IMO ) then they will need to throw the full brunt of their ingenuity at making Cell2 as accessible as possible.
I feel IBM is more than willing to capitulate given better tools will only strengthen the value of their other products as well. This is assuming STI does as I expect and brings modern memory coherence to Cell in a cheap but effective manner. If not there is no hope of writing such tools and indeed Cell2 will be dead in the water. If so then any tools for PPC will extend to Cell2 and will only differ when it comes to low level optimization.
I feel IBM's RAD can give Visual Studio a run for it's money any day of the week and I'm not alone according to Evans Data Reports.
http://www.evansdata.com/reports/2008IDE.php?rid=QXJ003
Sony SHOULD bite the bullet and hand developers IBM's RAD. It will go a LONG way to making developer's lives "easier." Further I feel that Sony should start acting like any other customer and leave tools development to IBM...they certainly much more so know what they're doing and secondly this would secure enterprise level support for the tools themselves. No knock to the open source community but the sort of support demanded in today's modern world just isn't there.
I believe Sony has the talent on hand to write a completely software driven and well optimized renderer for Cell2. With SCEA, SCEE, and SCEJ on tap and ripe with people who know what real-time graphics are all about one could argue that Sony is in even better position than Intel to accomplish this task. If Sony and IBM cannot collaborate to produce not only decent if not exceptional results here I will be quite amazed...and wholly disappointing.
Who would implement the OpenCl standard for Cell2 is an open question. The GNU group may do it...for "free" but then I expect IBM to do so as well. I can't imagine OpenCl support isn't in the cards for Cell2 if IBM wishes to seriously contend in the HPC market heading into the future. Who would do a better job? That's of course highly debatable. Who would do a bad job? Neither IMO. IBM certainly cannot afford to miss the mark here.
This discussion is probably suited to another thread but it is clear that offering developers easy access to whatever hardware you bring to market is of critical importance.
This is something that Sony has obviously under estimated this round and clearly is where we all can look to ascertain "what went wrong." However, if Sony is smart enough to learn anything from recent events they have compelling options out there to consider which will make everyone happy without completely tossing tossing Cell out with the bath water.
The expense to Sony to get it right for developers IMO is more than worth it. In truth, Sony can't afford not to.
If we are going to entertain the idea of a single multi-core architecture to do it all in Sony's next console to the exclusion of whatever AMD or Nvidia present then I would like to offer that sticking with Cell2 isn't quite so bleak a proposition...if handled properly.
If Sony attempts to go it alone or without trying to secure well supported enterprise solutions they're pretty much pre-destined to fail as far as I am concerned. History is not on Sony's side doing otherwise.
I'm still not sold that it is likely a single "arch" solution will be offered by either MS or Sony, but I want to make it clear I am not opposed to the idea.